This is a pretty low total for how the Bengals defense has played of late. They just allowed 48 points to Minnesota and the Broncos have just as much fire power to do the same. Jack Browning has struggled taking care of the ball, five interceptions already, and he can certainly be picked off more against this Denver defense. However, without Joe Burrow, and even with him, the Bengals scored under 20 points in their last three games in Denver while the game has gone under in three of the last four games between these two.

The Broncos have gotten off to a disappointing start at 1-2, but should have the opportunity to win big on Monday night. The Bengals are obviously without Joe Burrow, and Denver's defense is one of the best units in the league, despite back-to-back subpar outings. The Broncos are tough to beat at home, and I expect this game to be fairly lopsided. Broncos by 10+ on MNF.

The last time Higgins faced the Broncos, he caught 11 passes for 130 yards and three TDs. I don't expect him to produce at that level, but with Ja'Marr Chase likely in line to see a heavy dose of Patrick Sustain II, Higgins should see an uptick in targets on MNF.

Sloppiness proved very costly for the Bengals last week at Minnesota, literally handing the Vikings a few TDs in a lopsided 48-10 loss. That wasn't all on backup QB Jake Browning, in for injured Joe Burrow, but facing a Denver defense full of ballhawks and ready to reassume its form of last season when making one big play after another could help to increase the scoreline. (The Broncos D scored 6 TDs last year). Bo Nix and the Broncos offense haven't really clicked in three games, so the pressure is on Sean Payton to get the attack going tonight. As Browning is not incompetent the other way, we suspect these two can get to 45 points tonight in Denver. Play Bengals-Broncos Over.

Cincy isn't as bad as it showed last week at Minnesota, when turnovers doomed the offense. But the ability or inability to recover without Joe Burrow is very real. Denver's defense might have a reputation a bit more than reality, as since last December, most foes moved freely vs. Vance Joseph' stop defense. At its best, however, Bronco ballhawks have the capacity to swing momentum in one swoop, with six key defensive TDs last season. Denver's offense has yet to click, but back at home, Bo Nix can have better success especially if the ground game, which has shown promise of a breakthrough with JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey gaining nearly 6 ypc between them, keeps the Bengals off balance tonight. Play Broncos.

It feels like books are trying to dissuade Broncos backers with the 7 and the hook, but I think Denver can win this game by multiple TDs. They have been dominant at Mile High stadium, and I expect “get right” performances from both units. Despite leading the NFL in sacks, this Denver defense has yet to show its best, and may very well feast against Bengals backup QB Jake Browning. The Broncos offense is also close to exploding, and they get a perfect candidate to do so against in this matchup. Cincy’s defense gave up 327 total yards against Joe Flacco’s Browns, 400 to the Jaguars, and 352 to Carson Wentz’s Vikings. I expect Denver to win by double digits.

In Cincy’s blowout loss to the Vikings last week, RB Chase Brown still managed to grab 4 receptions. After an awful performance from Bengals backup QB Jake Browning last week, I expect him to play more conservative and look to check down. Browning has a very low average depth of target as is, and typically looks for receivers underneath. Brown has 47 rushes for just 93 yards, averaging a paltry 2 yards per carry. The Bengals can use their short passing game as an extension of their ineffective rushing attack. I expect Cincinnati to be in a trailing game script, which should give Brown chances for “dink and dunk” catches. I laddered this up to 6+ receptions (+520)

We've got the 2-1 Bengals against the 1-2 Broncos, but the records are misleading, as the Broncos barely lost to the Chargers and Colts, who lost their first game on Sunday. The Bengals had major issues with their offensive line when they had a healthy Joe Burrow, and now, with almost two full games behind backup Jake Browning, the offensive line looks even worse. The Bengals have a 31st-ranked offense averaging 220 yards per game, led by the NFL's worst running game, averaging 49 yards per game, which averages 2.4 yards per rush. I see the Broncos strength with their pass rush having their way with the Bengals offensive line and helping create a Broncos win by 10 points or more. Broncos to cover.

Chase Brown is averaging 2.0 yards per carry and owns the lowest success rate of any running back. He has more rushes for negative yards than he does for 5-plus yards. In last week's blowout loss at Minnesota, the Bengals gave rookie Tahj Brooks five carries and Samaje Perine four carries while Brown handled 10. Cincinnati's offense ranks 31st in adjusted line yards. The Broncos are 10th in rushing efficiency defense. With Cincinnati expected to be in comeback mode, I bet Brown to go Under on rushing yards.

Pretty surprised BetMGM is still hanging a 61.5 on JK Dobbins Rush Yards prop as most books are at 64.5 or 65.5 (I'm fine playing it up to 65.5 but certainly much prefer this BetMGM number). Dobbins is the clear number 1 back as he's dominated the rush attempt share early in the season. He's set to get 14-15 carries and that should be enough against a porous Bengal rush defense. It's notable that Dobbins efficiency has increased each week from 3.9, 5.4 to last week's 7.5 YPC. In a likely positive game script, the Broncos will lean on a trusted option like Dobbins.

Jake Browning is a capable backup QB but not behind an O-line with grave concerns. If Jalen Rivers starts, both Bengals guards will be rookies. In fact, Rivers is already the fourth player to occupy the position this season. Too, TE Noah Fant is concussed. That's not a comfortable scenario against the league leader in sacks. Denver has scored 20 points in two of three outings. Its third-down conversion rate is poor (27th in the NFL) and QB Bo Nix owns the 25th best passer rating. Look for a relatively low score in mile-high Denver.

DraftKings. JK Dobbins has cleared this rush attempts line in two of three games, with the lone miss in a flukey gamescript last week (only 48 total offensive plays against a stout Chargers defense). He’ll now face a Bengals defense that’s exploitable on the ground (24th in DVOA, per FTN). Plus, Cincy has allowed their opponents to run 66 offensive plays per game (fifth most), and I envision inprovement with Jake Browning under center. And while rookie RJ Harvey usurp some carries at some point, Dobbins has been the unquestioned lead back so far, with 75% of the running-back carries and a superior success rate (54% versus 30%). I do like Dobbins rush yards overs (up to 67.5), but this is the preferred bet.