The Buccaneers have been a thorn in the Eagles’ side, winning six of seven meetings since 2015. However, what Philadelphia showed last week when it decided to officially stop messing around against the Rams and pour it on for a win – and cover – was inspiring. The Eagles woke themselves up. Meanwhile, the Bucs are 3-0 winning those by a combined 6 points against three heavily flawed teams. This is a major step up in class, even if Philly is on the road battling the Florida heat. The right line is -3, and I’d wait until kickoff or buy up to -120 (that’s -3.5, +105 here), but I don’t mind eating the hook for the more talented, consistent, battle-tested team in 2025.

The Bucs come into this game banged up. No Mike Evans and they continue to have injuries to their offensive line. Tampa Bay has won three of the last four meetings between these two while three of those four also went under the total. However, the Eagles known that Tampa Bay has been a throne in their side for the last few seasons and will look to take advantage of the Buc injuries. Bakey Mayfield plays better as an underdog anyway.

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the future is now with their rookie wide receive in Emeka Egbuka. With Mike Evans out, and Chris Godwin just returning from a serious injury he is now the Buccaneers number one wide receiver. He will have his hands full going up against the Eagles stout defense, but it’s not a task he can’t handle. Expect Baker Mayfield’s timing route connections to continue as Egbuka clears his yardage prop.

This total is dropping to 43.5 on most books. Jalen Hurts has struggled mightily against Bucs HC Todd Bowles’ heavy pressure scheme. Philly depend on their run game to get their offense rolling, but they’ve looked far less explosive this year, and Tampa ranks #2 in Rush DVOA. The Eagles got down to Florida early this week to acclimate to the humidity, which signals to me that this game could turn into a bit of a slog. The Eagles weakest link at CB Adoree Jackson will miss this game, so their secondary may actually improve with him out. I’m taking the Under at the key number of 44, and expecting a 24-20 type of score.

Last week vs the Rams served as the proverbial wake up call that the Eagles needed. I expect them to get off the bus ready to go offensively, which hadn't been the case at times this season. The Bucs are able to match physicality with them, but I like the ability of the Eagles to generate explosives on both sides of the ball.

Baker Mayfield has well exceeded his rushing line in all three games this season. Mayfield has rushed for 39, 33, and 44 yards in the first three games this season. Why? Well, the game was close or on the line in all three games. We all know Mayfield is a scrappy gamer and will do whatever it takes to win. And that includes scrambling. Mayfield will be missing his go-to target in Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin will be returning, but likely on a snap count. I believe this game will be close, and he'll need to scramble to pick up first downs. With limited weapons and game on the line, look for Mayfield to exceed his rushing line again this week.

The Bucs are 3-0 but could be 0-3 with a few different bounces of the ball, so in some sense this number makes sense. However, you can say the same about the Eagles after three close wins that leaves the team with a negative-0.9 yards per play differential. The Bucs are dealing with key injuries on offense, but there are plenty of defensive injuries for the Eagles to worry about as well. This line shouldn't be any higher than three with the state of the Eagles at this point in the season.

In their dramatic victory during Week 3, the Eagles were outgained 356 yards to 288, yet they still managed to cover the spread. Philadelphia has been outgained in every game this season while committing just one turnover. Tampa Bay's defense ranks 5th in opponent yards per carry (3.6) and 1st in opponent Rush EPA. The Eagles rely heavily on running the ball (54.1% of plays, 1st in NFL) but face Tampa Bay's elite run defense. Raymond James Stadium has been particularly unkind to the Hurts-led Eagles. Philadelphia has struggled with the humidity, Tampa Bay's defensive pressure, and what multiple sources describe as "badly-timed lethargic play" in Florida. The Eagles have lost four of their last five games against the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay. Good value.