Pittsburgh’s disastrous performance in Week 2 has everyone selling, but there’s a reason why New England is less than a field goal favorite at home: It’s not that good. Case in point: The Patriots defense is the only one Tua Tagovailoa has shredded this season, and if not for the Dolphins’ own awful secondary, Miami wins that game. The Steelers under Mike Tomlin rarely play defense this poorly, and I see this as a get-right game at a meager number. (It may also be the Steelers’ last chance getting my benefit of the doubt, to be fair, because concerns are legitimate.)

The Steelers are coming off an upset loss at home to the Seahawks, so I expect to see a very inspired effort from Mike Tomlin's team here. New England will be without Christian Gonzalez, and the Steelers are simply the more talented team here. I really like the job Mike Vrabel is doing, but the Steelers win this one.

DraftKings. I like this as a buy-low spot for DK Metcalf. The unquestioned WR1 of the Steelers has only seven catches through two games, but those came in tough individual matchups against Sauce Gardner and Riq Woolen. Metcalf still leads the team in targets (13) and first-read rate (24%, per Fantasy Points Data). He’ll now face a Patriots defense that has struggled against opposing WR1s without cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Metcalf’s aDOT is only 5.5 yards right now, and I anticipate some quick hitters from Aaron Rodgers today, to get dynamic Metcalf going.

No Christian Gonzalez for New England this afternoon. The Steelers were upset at home last weekend at the hands of Seattle as they had a bunch of bundlers and a sub-par offense. However, Mike Tomlin is 44-19 ATS following a loss where they allowed 30+ points.

I played Warren Over 2.5 receptions, and I’ll play his receiving yards as well while the total remains low. Warren broke off a 65-yard catch last week and had 86 receiving yards. Last week, New England gave up 11 receptions, 115 receiving yards & 1 TD to Dolphins RBs/FBs. Warren had 3+ targets in 10 games last season, and should continue to see an increase in targets from Aaron Rodgers.

Steelers RB Jaylen Warren exploded last week for a 65-yard catch, and finished the game with 4 receptions & 86 receiving yards. Through the first two weeks of the season, Aaron Rodgers is 6/6 on his targets to Warren, who has always been a reliable dual-threat RB. Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez may return this week, which would greatly improve their secondary. After throwing two interceptions against the Seahawks last week, I expect Rodgers to play it safer and look for Warren on short routes.

Pittsburgh's defense has really struggled so far, and New England's Drake Maye just carried 10 times for 31 yards on Sunday. Justin Fields had 12 carries for 48 yards against this Steelers defense in Week 1. Our model has Maye at 35 yards rushing Sunday and our AI has him at 28.9.

Stefon Diggs has had a quiet start to his 1st year with the New England Patriots however there are some encouraging signs. He’s the only Patriots WR flashing efficiency on a per route basis. He also has plenty of room to see his role grow considering his route participation is low. Drake Maye has also looked very good and we’re getting an extremely friendly number. Lastly, the Steelers pass defense has not been good as evidenced by ranking 27th in EPA allowed per dropback.

I like the direction that the Patriots are heading in under new coach Mike Vrabel. In this particular matchup though, the Steelers front seven could cause a potential problem for the Pats offense. Pittsburgh also does have enough playmakers to take advantage of a Pats secondary without its top cornerback Christian Gonzalez.

What a difference two weeks makes. Prior to the season starting, these teams were basically considered even with 8.5-win totals juiced slightly to the Under. Now the Steelers are considered so much better that they're laying points on the road. What has changed? Both offenses had productive days against bad defenses on the road and struggled at home. Both defenses are beat up, though the Steelers' injuries look worse. I think the Pats should be favored here at home with the better quarterback and a defense that appears to be getting healthier with Christian Gonzalez trending up.