Jacksonville doled out 10 points and 255 yards in Week One. Cincinnati gave up 16 points. Yet this game's total is a massive half-hundred. The notoriously slow-starting Bengals are 16-7 on Unders with Coach Zac Taylor in games during the season's first month. They have won one of the past five home openers in large part because of subpar offense, and the pattern may continue against a stingy Jaguars' D-line. Jax is tempting at +3.5, but an Under makes more sense given that both tems should not reach the mid-20s on the scoreboard.

Who would have guessed the Jags would carry an 8-3-1 spread mark their last 12 into Sunday at Cincy? Meanwhile, It wasn't great for Cincy last week in Cleveland, very fortunate to escape with a 17-16 win over the Browns, who could have won with better place-kicking. What we've noted about the Bengals in recent years is that there seems to be a point each season, just past the halfway mark, when things click into gear for Joe Burrow (assuming he's healthy), and we're not there yet with Cincy. With Trevor Lawrence looking very much on the same page with new J'ville HC Liam Coen, the Jags might also like their chances to steal an outright win along the Ohio River. Play Jaguars

The Bengals struggled to defend tight ends last season. That continued in Week 1 when the Browns' Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku combined for 10 catches on 15 targets for 100 yards. Liam Coen loves Brenton Strange, and the third-year Penn State product looked awesome in Week 1, catching all four of his targets for 59 yards. Look for Strange to clear this modest prop total in a potential shootout.

Jaguars-Bengals profiles as a pretty big shootout and as such I'd expect Brian Thomas, Jr., to figure prominently in the Jacksonville passing offense after a fairly quiet Week 1 against Carolina. BTJ scored on a rushing attempt (which should remind us just how versatile he is and how this has multiple outs to get home) but I would expect more deep shots against a Cincinnati defense that surrendered explosive plays (20+ yards) to three different Browns receivers. With a better quarterback and better overall offense, I think there's a good chance we get home quickly on a shot play down the field here.

This would be a much better pick/joke in October, but I'm fine jumping into Strange SZN before Halloween actually gets here. Brenton Strange was on my anytime touchdown list last week but failed to find the end zone or really rack up massive yardage, mostly because the Panthers didn't do anything on offense and the Jags ran the ball the whole second half. Before the break, he caught four passes on four targets for 59 yards and now gets in a shootout against a Bengals defense that gave up 100 yards on 10 receptions to Browns tight ends last week. Expect this number to keep moving up over the next 48 hours.

Brenton Strange led the Jaguars in receiving in Week 1 and while that is definitely an anomaly, he was on the field for nearly 80% of the snaps and that usage should continue. He's the clear TE1 and he's going up against a Bengals defense that just got gashed by the Browns Tight Ends. Add to that a high scoring game and a likely negative game script for the Jaguars and it's a good recipe for a big game for Strange.

I’m buying low on Brian Thomas Jr. after a strange week 1 performance that saw a lopsided game, a lengthy mid game delay, and Trevor Lawrence minimal dropbacks. BTJ still accounted for a healthy target share and considering we’re getting a hefty discount on a game expected to be a shootout with two leaky pass defenses, this is exactly the type of environment I want discounted assets. I am very confident week 1’s performance will be seen as an outlier and I’ll also be likely to attack BTJ’s alt lines. The 2nd year WR is poised for a major breakout.

I bet Trevor Lawrence over this same number in Week 1, and things started off promising. But Lawrence got out of rhythm and finished 19 of 31. I'll back Lawrence again because of the opponent, and the expected game script. In the Jags' 26-10 win over Carolina, Liam Coen didn't need to keep calling pass plays because the Panthers posed no threat. Facing Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, the Jaguars will need a much stronger passing game. Lawrence might not complete 31 passes like Joe Flacco did last week vs. Cincy, but I love Lawrence to get to at least 22.

The Bengals ranked 31st out of 32 teams in Week 1 in Yards Per Play, yet they are favored by more than a field goal over a team that ran the ball for 200 yards last week. Look-ahead line over the summer was Bengals -6.5. Clearly an adjustment has been made. I made the number 2.5 in favor of the Bengals myself, so I believe getting more than a field goal is a green light. I also feel there could be a bit of an exhale on the part of Cincinnati, finally getting over the hump and actually winning a season opener - albeit barely. I feel the Jaguars have a great chance to win this game outright.

If the Bengals can continue to play defense like they did vs the Browns, they'll be more than fine the rest of the way. You have to expect their offense to really get it into gear at some point. I look to last week's game as more of a sign of defensive improvement than worrying about their offense. Look for them to outpace the Jags in this game.

Week 1 can be tricky to learn lessons from, because you don't want to overreact. And the Panthers being terrible has me a little wary of investing too quickly in Jacksonville. But the Bengals did hardly anything on offense after an opening scripted drive and struggled against the Browns. Trevor Lawrence won't make the same turnover mistakes Joe Flacco did and I think Jacksonville could have scored 40 if they'd been pushed by Carolina at all. I expect something of a high scoring game decided by a field goal, so I'm taking the 3.5 before it disappears heading into the weekend and becomes a flat three. I'd lean towards the over here too but it's pretty high and teams are still ramping up their offenses.

While I think the Jags are going to be fairly better this year and they easily cashed for us in Week 1, that was against awful Carolina. Little different going to Cincinnati and beating Joe Burrow in the Bengals' home opener. The Jags were 1-8 away in 2024. Not a huge lookahead guy but I believe this only rises a fair amount so will grab it. Think we are getting a bit of a break here because Cincy didn't look good offensively, especially in the second half, in Cleveland. But rivalry and road Week 1 game, so I don't fret. It appears both these clubs got out of Sunday without major injury. Ja'Marr Chase covered by Travis Hunter occasionally could be really fun to watch.