I was hoping to get this at -6.5, but I still feel good about taking the Ravens by a TD in this spot. This is a game where I see Baltimore coming out fast, then slowing things down in the second half (which is why I'm staying off the full game spread here).

Quinshon Judkins is set to make his debut this week in a tough matchup, which shifts Ford to third on the depth chart in a matchup where the Browns figure to be playing from behind. That makes me think Ford's ceiling for carries can't be more than three or four, and he did nothing with six carries last week in a much better matchup. I can see Ford seeing his 41 snaps cut in half in this matchup, which would leave him needing a big run to get over this total.

This just feels like a scorched-earth game for the Ravens, which were thoroughly dominating the Bills before a bevy of miscues doomed them. Baltimore returns home motivated to put the ghosts of Week 1 behind it, and Derrick Henry will not only be looking to atone for his fumble, now he is being fueled by Grant Delpit, too? Jaire Alexander being out is not ideal, but it may not matter. The Ravens will go up big here, and unlike Week 1, they aren’t going to let this game get away from them.

While it’s becoming clear that Mark Andrews is not the elite pass catching Tight End at this stage of his career, I think talks of his demise may be overblown. He’s still a quality red zone target in a hyper efficient albeit low volume Lamar Jackson offense. Considering Baltimore is checking in as nearly 13 point favorites, it’s fair to wonder how many pass attempts Lamar Jackson will have. The Browns were a massive run funnel last season and the Ravens love to run the football. Lamar Jacks completion prop is set at 17.5 which indicates a low volume passing attack. It’s also worth noting that Cleveland may have a strong pass defense as well as they stymied Bengals passing offense last week.

Not since 2022 has a Week 2 matchup generated a double-digit point spread, and this one is a whopper. Cleveland's defense was lights-out in a 17-16 loss to Cincinnati, yielding just 141 yards to the Bengals, including seven in the second half. The Browns have a reputation for holding down RB Derrick Henry, who ran wild last week in Buffalo, having upended his team twice in the past three outings. The Ravens’ offensive explosion against the Bills deserves an asterisk; Buffalo’s D was banged up. Cleveland’s is healthy — and for real.

The Ravens threw the ball 19 times in Week 1, which resulted in one target for tight end Mark Andrews. He should see more action against Cleveland, an opponent he has thrived against, but I still think this number hasn't been adjusted downward enough. Even with Isaiah Likely sidelined, Andrews is competing for targets with Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, DeAndre Hopkins, Justice Hill and others. Last week, Andrews ran 16 routes while backup tight end Charlie Kolar ran nine.

The Ravens dropped 40 points in a loss against the Bills last week. Baltimore OC Todd Monken has this offense firing on all cylinders to start the season, and I expect them to continue rolling against Cleveland. Although the Browns only scored 16 points last week, they gained over 325 total yards. Joe Flacco was pass-happy going 31/45 for 290/1 TD/ 2 INT. This Ravens secondary is still working out the kinks, and Flacco is a high variance QB. I expect the Ravens to jump out to an early lead, and force the Browns to play catch up. That sort of game script should get us Over 45. The Ravens could clear this by themselves.

Tillman had 5 receptions for 52 yards last week. He was targeted 8 times, and was on the field for 88% of the offensive snaps. Tillman now seems to be the clear WR2 for the Browns, and plays a Ravens team that he had huge game against last season (7 Rec/99 Yards/2TDs). Cleveland are big underdogs in this matchup, and if they are playing from behind Joe Flacco will have to air it out. The Ravens secondary had plenty of issues in Week 1 as well. Tillman should continue to see targets, and go over this receiving yards total.

Baltimore lost in dramatic fashion to the Bills in Week 1, but were looking dominant prior to Josh Allen’s superhero comeback. Baltimore RB Derrick Henry and WR Zay Flowers each exploded for huge games, and I see no reason why the Ravens won’t replicate similar results against the Browns. Expect a stronger effort on defense from the Ravens following their prime time let down. Browns RT Jack Conklin has a 50/50 chance to play, and if he doesn’t go the Ravens defensive front might make it a long day at the office for Joe Flacco. Baltimore bounce back big this week.

Joe Flacco is back in Baltimore, and the Browns' pedestrian running game isn't going to give him much help. The Ravens are stout against the run but just gave up 394 passing yards to Josh Allen. Cleveland figures to be trailing throughout, potentially by multiple scores, so it will be on Flacco to air it out.

In Week 1, Joe Flacco threw the ball eight times to rookie RB Dylan Sampson, nine times to rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. and eight times to Cedric Tillman. Tillman caught five of his eight targets for 52 yards and a TD in Week 1. He is just entering his third season as a third-round pick, so it took a season and a half for him to firmly establish himself as WR2. He was just 2-13 over 3.5 receptions to start his career but has had 4+ in four of his last six games and is projected for 3.5.

In last week's picks, we not only had Over 0.5 interceptions but we predicted Joe Flacco would lead the league in multiple-interception games. Even though the picks weren't necessarily Flacco's fault, he still had two against Cincinnati in Week 1. I think Flacco is still a very good quarterback but he can occasionally become a gunslinger who lets the ball rip into tight spaces.

Lamar Jackson only had 209 passing yards because for 90% of the Week 1 game against the Bills, it looked like Baltimore had things wrapped up and didn't need to keep passing up two scores. While the defense is taking the brunt of the criticism, it's also clear Baltimore can't get conservative and predictable on offense even if the Ravens are up big against the Browns. Historically, Jackson has averaged 10 more passing yards at home and while his pre-2024 average was under 200 per game, he averaged 245.4 passing yards per game in 2024. He was 12-8 going Over 216.5 pass yards a year ago, including in both Browns games.

One BIG reason we have good value on the Ravens to cover a double digit spread is Derrick Henry has reached "lock status" for anytime touchdowns, but is still being priced like it is up for debate. The Ravens' odds implied team total is 28.8 even if the Browns manage to stop them on two scoring drives with FGs that leaves basically 4 touchdowns. Henry will get 1 of 2 rushing and do not dismiss his chance of scoring through the air. As a member of the Ravens he has scored a TD in 16 of 20 games. He deserves the 2023 Christian McCaffrey treatment where he was -300 or more.

We are used to seeing the Ravens blow a game after a strong start to a season. This time, they got that out the way in the opener. What gets lost in that is how much they were dominating the Bills defense on both ends of offense. Look for the defensive pass rush to really get after the immobile Joe Flacco and put this team away early.