This is a massive, outsized spread for a game in Week 1, which usually means there’s enough unknowns to be cautious and go the other way. In this case, it’s worth backing the Broncos and perhaps the top defense in the NFL against a rookie quarterback making his first career start. Even if Cam Ward proves to be great by season’s end, just look at Jayden Daniels’ loss from Week 1 in 2024 as proof that these guys need to see some real game action before finding comfort. Even beyond that, the Titans don’t exactly jump out at you. Wish I got this at a juicer number, but -8.5 is the best on the board closer to kickoff.

There were some stark results with these two last season and not sure how much will change for this opener. Laying 8+ with the Broncos hardly seems unreasonable after the slew of Broncos lopsided wins last year vs. lesser opposition. Tendencies of a bully, perhaps, but good to know after Sean Payton’s troops ran up win margins of 19, 16, 23, 14, 32, 10, 9, 18, and 38 points last season...all higher than this Sunday’s number vs. the Titans. Who, it should be noted, are starting a rookie QB (Cam Ward) on the road vs. one of the NFL’s most-disruptive defenses. There’s a long way to go for Tennessee, which among other things covered only two (yes, just two!!) pointspreads all of 2024. Play Broncos

Our model says this should be -177. Enjoyed watching Cam Ward at the U last year, and he reminds me a lot of Brett Favre in that Ward will throw the ball in any spot and just assume his arm talent will fit it into a tight window. Often, he's right. But like Favre, Ward is probably going to be very INT-prone in the NFL. Denver's pass defense is one of the best in the league led by superstar cornerback and 2024 NFL DPOY Patrick Surtain; let's see if Ward dares challenge him. The Titans figure to be throwing plenty down big (presumably).

The main feature of this wager is betting against a rookie quarterback in his first road game against a Broncos defense that had more sacks than anybody in the NFL last year. The bet comes with expectations that the rookie, Cam Ward, will be rattled and make mistakes, leading to short fields and easy Broncos points. Then, as a bonus, you get Bo Nix at quarterback, a healthy JK Dobbins at running back, and Evan Engram at tight end to help the scoring. The bonus for the defense is adding linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga, who played with the 49ers last year. Broncos to win by 10 or more.

Yielding this many points in Week One generally carries great risk. But rookie QB Cam Ward could not have chosen a less favorable opponent to get his feet wet. Denver allowed the second fewest yards per play last year. It plays at home in high altitude, so Ward will struggle for a few reasons to catch his breath. First-year QBs getting immediately thrown to the wolves has become more common in the NFL, usually with unwanted outcomes. Those who start at the first opportunity have won five of 20 games outright since the modern draft was instituted.

Inside linebacker Cody Barton racked up 106 tackles with the Broncos last season, then signed a three-year, $21 million free-agent deal with Tennessee. So he's facing his former team in Week 1. And he'll wear the green dot for the Titans. Tennessee just signed Kyzir White to potentially compete with Cedric Gray and James Williams Sr. for the other starting inside linebacker spot. But I don't expect Barton to come off the field much if at all. With Denver expected to be leading late and possibly running out the clock, Barton's opportunities for run stops should be there.

This number is a little low for Troy Franklin entering his second season. By all accounts, Franklin had a great offseason and will battle with Marvin Mims for targets behind Courtland Sutton at the WR position. Franklin didn't have a huge impact as a rookie but still went over this total eight times, including four of his final seven games. We probably need just two receptions to cash this over, a mark Franklin hit 11 times last season.

As far as matchups to start your professional career go, they don't get much tougher than on the road in Denver. I have high hopes for Cameron Ward this season and think the Titans can challenge for the division title, but I can't see them having much success against a defense that finished top three in scoring, net yards per pass attempt and yards per rush and may have gotten better this offseason. Take the Titans to stay under 17 in this one.