There are two major question marks here: Christian McCaffrey’s health and how Sam Darnold will perform without Kevin O’Connell as his coach. While there was fervor about McCaffrey popping up with a calf late this week, it does feel like much ado about nothing. Darnold, meanwhile, is a real question, especially behind a suspect Seattle offensive line. San Francisco lost the last meeting, but it was seriously injured and depleted at that time. This is definitely more of a toss-up than is desired, but Week 1 is largely a fact-finding mission, and let’s find some facts here with a 49ers lean at a reduced unit.

The San Francisco 49ers have a big microscope on them in week one. Their quarterback in Brock Purdy has had a knack of raising his game in Seattle. In his career he is 3-0 there, and has put on a clinic with big game performances. A rare spot where the 49ers are small favorites, proves beneficial. Take the 49ers in week one over Seattle.

George Kittle was 2nd in touchdowns among tight ends last season. He was also 2nd in red zone targets among tight ends in 2024. Now, Deebo Samuel is in Washington. Christian McCaffery is questionable (though sounds likely to play). Brandon Aiyuk is out, and Jauan Jennings is coming back from a calf injury/holdout during training camp. Kittle has excelled when his teammates missed time. The 49ers' weapons are thin, and Kittle will need to be the go-to target. I love this price for Kittle to find the endzone, especially given the team's health and availability.

San Fran’s offense, unlike nearly all others, revolves around an RB — the oft-injured Christian McCaffrey. Before the season’s first snap, he is hurting, having been adding to the injury report with a sore calf. Seattle’s loaded defense must be licking its chops, even more so from facing the 49ers’ thinned-out receiving corps. Three starters off the Niners’ defense departed in the offseason. The Seahawks break in a new QB, Sam Darnold, who might need only to deliver 20 points. Seattle is 5-1 SU in its past half-dozen openers, while San Fran has fallen ATS in five straight roadies.

There are major question marks for McCaffrey who heads into his 9th season. C-Mac appeared in just 4 games last year and after a seemingly healthy offseason just popped up on SF’s injury report with a calf issue. The 49ers have some major question marks on their offensive line as well. I also consider this a very difficult matchup against a Seattle defense that was a top 5 unit over the second half of last season. The Seahawks are returning virtually every key defensive player, while adding additional talent/depth to a cutting edge scheme led by Mike Macdonald.

You think of Kenneth Walker as the power back and Zach Charbonnet as the change of pace back but Walker has a decently high 13.8% of team receptions. With only 8.5% of team rec yards I wouldn't take his rec yard over but at +$$$ on a line under his average of 3.1 at home (12-9 over 2.5) and a projection of 3.0, I'll take it.

Seahawks defense has the edge in this ball game due to the banged up nature of the 49ers passing game outside of George Kittle. Look for Seattle to be able to pin their ears back, get after the run game and really put the 49ers offense in a bind throughout the contest.

Neither of these offenses topped 300 yards in their last meeting, and you could argue each is in a worse spot for this matchup after Seattle turned Geno Smith and DK Metcalf into Sam Darnold and Cooper Kupp while the 49ers have serious issues at receiver. I expect much better from the 49ers defense this season with Robert Saleh back leading the unit, while Mike Macdonald's defense is primed to make a leap this year. This is a game where 20 points should be enough to win.

It's not been a secret how high I am on the 49ers this season with their schedule, but I think this line has inflated too much due to the team's issues at receiver heading into the season. Seattle's defense was rolled in the first meeting last year but improved significantly in the second matchup (despite Christian McCaffrey being back), keeping the score in check and allowing the offense to steal the win late on the road. I could see a similar script here, with Seattle able to pull out a lower-scoring game at home. I'd make this line San Francisco -1, and at 2 or 2.5 I see value on Seattle.

Kenenth Walker has struggled to stay on the field during camp while dealing with a foot injury while Charbonnet has been out there every day and garnered praise from the coaching staff on a regular basis. It would not surprise in a few weeks to see Charbonnet as the featured back in the offense, but even if the plan is for Walker to be the locked-in starter, it would make sense to ease him in for this matchup after his camp absences and have Charbonnet a bigger part of the mix than the market realizes. I think Charbonnet should be closer to +200 to score in this game.

The 49ers are being given a pass for their bad 2024 season and are as much as -130 favorites at Seattle. Our model isn't being so kind because while not having Christian McCaffrey hurt the 49ers, they did still get plenty of rushing productivity going from 4.8 ypc w/ McCaffrey in '23 and 4.7 ypc largely without him in '24. The bigger issue for the 49ers is their defense was lousy on the road last season, allowing 30.4 points per game. The Seahawks' defense is going to be much improved with Mike Macdonald Year 2. The model has Seattle winning nearly 58% of the time.