Certainly wish this was attacked earlier in the week without the hook, but the Commanders are the right side here despite a road spot against a team playing up for its interim coach. Washington is coming off the bye, which should have helped solidify Dan Quinn’s defense and improve Jayden Daniels’ health. Oh, and Brian Robinson Jr. is fully back, too. New Orleans will be starting Jake Haener, who this season has completed 48% of his passes. Don’t see how he is able to keep the defense – one of the worst in the NFL – off the field for long enough stretches to stop Daniels from tearing it apart. I will also be taking the Commanders down to -1.5 as a Wong teaser leg.

Commanders RB Brian Robinson should get a heavy workload here. The Saints rank 25th in rush yards allowed (134.2 ypg). Robinson seems to be over his ankle injury he sustained in Week 12. He rushed for 103 yards on 16 carries last week against the Titans, who are better run-stoppers than New Orleans. With RB2 Austin Ekeler unable to clear concussion protocol, I expect the Commanders to lean on Robinson. As -7.5 favorites, Washington may very well be playing with the lead and controlling possession with their run game. I like B-Rob to go for 75+ yards and a score today.

This is a massive value on the mercurial RB who should get some opportunities. He could see a strong snap share if the game gets away from the Saints, who could choose to rest battered veteran Alvin Kamara. At a minimum, Miller will be the change-of-pace RB who saw 10 carries and scored last week.

Commanders running back Brian Robinson is fully healthy off the bye, and he's facing a Saints' defense that ranks dead last in opponent-adjusted yards per carry allowed. Robinson has scored in seven of 10 games. Austin Ekeler is on IR, increasing the chance that Robinson scores.

Second-year running back Kendre Miller got 10 carries in the Saints' 14-11 win over the Giants, and I expect him to get another sizable workload Sunday. He was actually more effective as a runner than Alvin Kamara. Another factor that could limit Kamara's carries: the game script, with Washington favored by more than a touchdown.

The hook on this spread is bothersome, but consider this: The likely Saints starter at QB with Derek Carr ailing is Jake Haener, who has yet to open an NFL game and whose completion percentage in limited reserve is sub-.500. The Saints surely will rely on RB Alvin Kamara, but wait. He has missed both practices this week with an illness. New Orleans has given up the fifth-most passing yards, so QB Jayden Daniels is licking his chops. The Commanders halted a three-game slide entering the bye week by slamming Tennessee and should be rarin' to go.

After a much-needed bye week, Jayden Daniels gets to take on the leaky Saints secondary in the state where he crushed it at LSU. Though he's only over this number in 1 of his last 5 games, Daniels' passing volume is there, having attempted 30+ passes in 5 of 6. I expect him to surpass 225 yards through the air and New Orleans to have no answer for the future Offensive Rookie of the Year.

He could get this on one carry. Jayden is all the way back, getting his legs active again prior to their bye and he should be more than ready to go here against a terrible run D that really stinks against QB runs. Drew Lock went for 59 last week, Justin Herbert ran for 49 on them Bo Nix went for 75 and Baker Mayfield picked up 29 on just 3 carries. Saints are 30th in the NFL in EPA vs QB runs. Daniels is averaging 8 carries for 45 yards on the ground.

The Saints are awful against the run, Robinson is as healthy as he's been in a long time and he is coming off a bye. Oh, and I think this game could get sideways with a lot of running out the clock and taking advantage of a tired defense. Robinson got his legs back under him before the bye and went for 100 yards. Saints are 32nd in run D success rate and 31st in run D EPA. Allowing over 5 yards/carry. I will be playing Robinson 100+ in alt markets. Teams with a running QB have really exploited the Saints on the ground (DEN ran all over them). This matchup will spread them thin. Defensive minded HC Dan Quinn will lean on run game

Without Derek Carr starting this week, the Saints offense will not be in sync like it has been recently. Also, this Washington Commanders defense has been strong lately and will do a great job of keeping the young QB Jake Haener guessing.

This is the last 7 on our board. Very rare for me to give 7 to a road team, and I frankly almost expect to push -- but the Saints apparently will be giving Jake Haener the start under center. Rookie Spencer Rattler went 0-3 when he got a chance earlier this season when Derek Carr was first hurt. Haener, a 2023 fourth-round pick, has attempted 29 career NFL passes and completed only 14. The Commanders are out of their bye and contending for a WC spot, so they sure appear to have all the advantages other than playing on the road. Probably a bit of an extra special game for Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels, the 2023 Heisman winner down the road at LSU.

With Derek Carr expected to miss multiple weeks, It's unclear which backup will start for the Saints at quarterback. Either way, I like the rested Commanders to run all over them. New Orleans ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed before contact. The Commanders, who have Brian Robinson healthy, have rushed for more than 200 yards five times already. Against his former team, corner Marshon Lattimore could suit up as a Commander for the first time. That would make things even tougher for Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler.

Spencer Rattler is not ready to start NFL games. That much is clear. Commandos have not been good off a bye for years, but WSH is 8-4-1 vs spread and 6-2-1 ATS outside NFC East. Jayden Daniels has covered as a favorite of this length and rookie QBs as a favorite of 7+ are 13-4 ATS since '19. With Rattler Saints were +3.5 vs TB and lost by 24; +3 vs DEN and lost by 23 and +7.5 to LAC and lost by 18. Saints cant stop the run and Washington can pound it. Daniels is 6-2 ATS as a favorite.

The Commanders have a massive game against the Eagles after this as they chase a wild card spot, but coming out of a bye I expect them to be focused on the task at hand. The Saints have just Alvin Kamara left on offense, and even he didn't have success running against a Giants D-line missing Dexter Lawrence last week. I don't know how the Saints score points here, while I can see Washington dominating on the ground against a Saints defense that's last in the league in yards per carry. This is a game the Commanders should win by double digits.