The Packers were unable to generate pass rush against the Bears last week until it was too late; the Vikings are not going to have that problem. Chicago’s offensive line is a disaster, and while Caleb Williams is making improvements as his rookie season progresses, those usually came when he got outside the pocket. Minnesota and Brian Flores are not going to allow that. The Bears defense is legit, but the Vikings have proven to be multiple offensively. They also have a clear coaching advantage. Minnesota will start hot and should ultimately cruise to victory by relying on a strong rushing attack behind Aaron Jones. Sam Darnold must concentrate on limiting mistakes so as not to provide the hosts any additional opportunities.

Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores makes life hard for rookie QBs -- and, make no mistake, Caleb Williams has often looked like a rookie. Flores is fond of blitzing, which first-year QBs require time to figure out. He can ask fellow young QB Justin Fields, who was sacked five times in a game by Minnesota as a Bear. The Vikes thrive in the Windy City, with four consecutive straight-up wins there. QB Sam Darnold was iffy for awhile during the week but is good to go.

The tough-luck Bears came up just short against the Packers last week but their offense looked better amid a coordinator change. The Vikings have feasted on meager opposition of late and might do so again Sunday, but this has 3-point game written all over it.

I’m expecting offense to be tough to come by in this matchup. The Vikings defense has been fantastic this season, ranking #1 in EPA/play, #1 in EPA/rush, and #1 in defensive success rate. They are stingy, and have created more QB pressures than any team in the NFL. Vikings DC Brian Flores will have Bears QB Caleb Williams flustered with his exotic blitz scheme. However, things aren’t all rosy on Minnesota’s side. Over the past month, this Vikings offense has looked fairly pedestrian. Against weaker defenses, (Rams, Colts, Jags) the Vikings mustered up more than 20 points in just one of those games (21 against Indy). Since losing key OL Christian Darrisaw, Vikings QB Sam Darnold has not looked the same. Play Under.

Williams ran more under new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown last week, rushing for 70 yards on nine carries. I expect more of the same against Minnesota's blitz-heavy scheme. Williams has gone over 30 yards rushing in four of his last six games. I like that trend to continue.

In Thomas Brown's first game as playcaller, DJ Moore caught all seven of his targets in a near-upset of Green Bay. Caleb Williams was getting rid of the ball quickly, and all of Moore's targets came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Facing the blitz-happy Vikings, Chicago's gameplan undoubtedly will center on quick throws. That should mean at least five grabs for Moore.

When I looked at the Vikings I'm very impressed with their 5-0 start but their last five games have been something like they need life support. Sam Darnold hasn't looked good but they've been winning at Tennessee and Jacksonville. Their last three games have all stayed under. The Vikings are 8-2 and 7-3 against the spread, but I feel they're not one of the best teams. The Bears are four and two at home but have lost four straight. The Bears have stayed under their last four games. The under is the way to go.

I may regret this if it does get down to -2.5, but probably not. Bears are very flawed with a bad OL and a shaken rookie QB who is 30th in the NFL vs the blitz, facing an elite pressure defense with a tricky system to crack. Matt Eberflus is 2-5 ATS in division games at home. MIN 4-0 ATS last 4 vs CHI, 7-3 ATS this season and NFL-best 15-8-3 ATS outdoors since '21. Caleb Williams averaging 5.5/pass with no passing TDs last 4 games. Expect another hangover from Bears after heartbreaking loss (tanked after late loss at WSH). Bears have covered at home this season but MIN will suffocate their fading offense. Vikings have monster coaching advantages across the board.