This is a somewhat-inflated spread for Monday night, but the Bengals enter full strength offensively with Tee Higgins back to compliment Ja’Marr Chase and the emerging Mike Gesicki. Having so much weaponry outside should open lanes for Zack Moss, who has not been overly impressive on the ground but goes up against a Commanders team that has proven its defense can be exploited at both levels. Joe Burrow is 5-0-1 ATS coming off consecutive losses and 15-6-1 ATS off any loss. There are legitimate concerns about Cincinnati’s defensive front, but it the D does well overall limiting explosive plays. With 10% of NFL games falling on 7 points, it’s worth buying down to -7 (-115 odds or better) before kickoff.

Rainy weather and a beat up Cincy front means I’ll take BRob to tote the rock and get to 54 yards

Ja'Marr Chase was covered by elite CB's in each of his first two matchups to start the year (Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez, Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie). Chase has yet to find the end zone, but I see that changing against the Commanders. Washington clearly has the worst secondary in the league. They give up the most touchdowns to opposing WR1's. Cincy started to click last week against the Chiefs, and their offense should look to carry that momentum into a breakout game here. The Bengals need a big game in primetime to inject life into their season, and I see them feeding their star receiver for an easy score.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals have started 0-2 again but he gets back Tee Higgins to go along with Ja'Marr Chase. But no Joe Mixon. He's got Zack Moss and an underused Chase Brown as the replacement. Washington is still trying to figure out the best way to run the offense, but they've already scored over 20 points in both games. Jayden Daniels is figuring things out but hasn't thrown an interception yet and has passed for 75% completions while running effectively. Washington is the No. 6 rushing team in the nation at 176 yards per game featuring Brian Robinson. Washington featured eight receivers' receptions last week and eight targets to Terry McLaurin. The Bengals will have a tough time stopping Daniels. Washington covers.

We're still not sure who the Commanders WR2 is, but I think it's likely to be Noah Brown. Brown arrived to Washington right before the season began so he was understandably inactive in Week 1, but made the most of his limited opportunities in Week 2. I expect the snaps and routes to increase for Brown and I think he could sail over this 16.5 total.

There was a lot of buzz about Chase Brown in the off-season, but Zack Moss has received most of the carry split through two games. I think that split will inch closer and closer Monday night as Chase Brown has been the more explosive of the two running backs. This is a nice game environment for both RBs to succeed and I think Brown has earned between 6-8 carries at a minimum and that should be plenty to get him beyond 24.5 rushing yards. Both of these rushers have an opportunity to succeed tonight and I expect both to pass their rushing totals.

As you are about to see if you're a member of SportsLine, I like both running backs in this game to pile up chunk plays and hit their rushing overs. Zack Moss may concede a few carries to Chase Brown tonight, but I think he only needs 12 rush attempts to hit this over as the Commanders are allowing over 4.5 yards per carry. I trust Moss (and Brown) will see some light boxes with the receiving group fully healthy for The Bengals. They should both enjoy a positive game script and a few more touches than expected as well.

Last week, Washington beat the Giants without scoring a TD. The good news is they still managed to score 18 points because they created six scoring opportunities. And it wasn’t a fluke: entering the week, they are the sixth rated offense in the NFL. I think we can get 20 points from them tonight.

Brian Robinson is coming off a 133-yard rushing game and now faces a depleted Bengals' defensive front. Sheldon Rankins is out, B.J. Hill is doubtful. Cincy second-round pick Kris Jenkins will make his season debut but is dealing with a thumb injury and will have his hand wrapped. The Bengals signed 34-year-old Lawrence Guy off the street this week and are counting on him to play. With Cincy's defense also worried about containing Jayden Daniels' running, look for Robinson to clear this number.

The Bengals should get their first win, but this is too many points. Cincinnati is decimated on the defensive line, which sets up well for Brian Robinson and Jayden Daniels. The electric rookie ranks No. 5 in EPA after two weeks. Washington did not punt last week, rolling up 425 yards and getting inside the Giants' 10 five times. Look for an entertaining shootout with the Commanders covering.

The Bengals can't drop to 0-3 and they outplayed the Chiefs at Arrowhead, again, and somehow lost. After a no-show to the lowly Pats Week 1 there is no room for error. The offense woke up Sunday and can feat on a terrible defense here. Jayden Daniels will be under duress in prime time. CIN is AFC's top cover team since 2022 and Joe Burrow is 15-6-1 ATS after a SU loss. WSH allowing 30+ per game since start of last season. Bengals looking to unleash a primal scream after two very tough weeks. This should be a homecoming game for them.