Spent Sunday morning trying to find a reason not to back the Falcons, and I just cannot come up with one. The Panthers are going to struggle effecting Desmond Ridder in the pocket, and Atlanta is far stronger defensively facing one of the three weakest offenses in the NFL. The Carolina has an interim coach who has never been more than a special teams coordinator for bad teams. The fans have given up tickets going for $0.45 this week. I suppose the Panthers could surprise, but I just don't see it. Every Carolina loss this season has been by 3+ points, and it is too mistake prone to put all your trust in its defense.

The downtrodden Panthers yielded just 207 yards of total offense to New Orleans last week, and their backfield plowed away for 204 yards. Even so, a late turnover and blocked a punt negated an otherwise stellar effort. If snake-bit Carolina is going to win another game, it will be Sunday against a reeling Falcons club.

The Panthers are back home where Bryce Young is more comfortable (78.0 passer rating compared to 66.4 on the road). He'll rely on Chuba Hubbard against an Atlanta defense that's missing defensive lineman David Onyemata (ankle) for the second straight week. Onyemata's absence figured prominently in the Falcons' 29-25 home loss to Tampa Bay. But this bet comes mainly comes down to how good the Panthers' defense is and how decimated the Falcons' offensive line is. Kaleb McGary is out, and three other starting O-linemen are questionable.

Carolina has now allowed 21 rushing TDs on the season, most in the NFL. I swore to myself I was off Falcons props because their coach continues to butcher game management, but my desire to keep playing RBs to hit paydirt against this D won out. Allgeier isn't much of a poaching threat with 1 since Week 1. Ridder is a turnover machine. Bijan has a TD in 3 of last 4 games (only the Jets stopped him) and has 5 TDs in his last 6 games and scored in the first game vs Carolina and is coming off his biggest receiving game of the year, too. So, yeah, they pulled me back in.

Seriously, is it possible in good faith to take the Panthers with this few points? Poor QB Bryce Young, with the finish line to his nightmarish rookie season within view, is coming off his worst game in a season that began with a two-interception loss to Atlanta. Not since eight games ago has Carolina scored as many as 20 points. The Falcons are no great shakes but tend to handle business in the sorry NFC South, having covered in all five games until last week. As tri-leader of the division, they carry in far more motivation than the discouraged Panthers.

It's been a frustrating season for Pitts, who has elite physical traits and flashed monstrous upside in a rookie season that saw him finish with 1,026 receiving yards. Considering Pitts' college production and rookie output, it was natural to think Pitts could become one of the elite at the position. That hasn't been the case, as Pitts plays in one of the lowest-volume passing offenses and hasn't even been a full-time player. That changed in Week 14, as Pitts played a season-high 85% of the snaps. Hopefully it's a sign of things to come, as Pitts' usage has been head-scratching, to say the least. If Pitts continues to see at least 80% of the snaps, he is a no-brainer in the 35- to 45-yard range.

It's been a passing season for the Falcons. They went from 42% pass to 50% this season. After Robinson's mid-season migraine situation, his receiving yards have been steadily increasing. He is averaging 6 targets the past 3 games and over 37 yards. Carolina's rush defense is actually decent which could bode for some more passes for the rookie.

Falcons safety Jessie Bates has made 7-plus tackles in six straight games, and he had 10 tackles in the first meeting with Carolina. (He also intercepted two passes and forced a fumble). Bates never leaves the field and this is a great matchup for him. Look for him to register at least seven tackles plus assists.

Hubbard getting 25 touches is the centerpiece of this limping Panthers offense and they will undoubtedly lean on him heavily Sunday with Bryce Young struggling mightily. He's over 87 yards rushing each of the last two games since becoming the feature back and can win in the screen game too. ATL is top 10 vs run but NFC South RBs have gone way over this against them: White (27 touches - 135 yards last week), Kamara (19-119), White (19-99), Sanders (24-98). Hubbard was behind Sanders in Wk 1 game vs ATL but still had 11-69. Panthers will follow that RB script here with Hubbard the lead guy.

Both teams are coming off tough losses with statistical profiles that don't reflect the final score. The Falcons outgained the Bucs by two yards per play but collapsed due to a bad pick, two FG misses and a safety. The Panthers held the Saints to 207 yards and four yards per play despite getting blown out. The Panthers should be able to run the ball against a beat-up Falcons front and shorten the game, and their defense should continue to have success against an Atlanta O-line dealing with injuries. The Falcons are 1-5 straight up away from home, and I expect Desmond Ridder to struggle much like the Carolina offense has all year. Take this Under now before it drops.