Fading the Browns on the road was a successful play last week, and while we pointed out they are far better defensively at home, it’s important to note they have beaten up on numerous poor offenses while in Cleveland. That said, the Jaguars enter with Trevor Lawrence at least hobbled and both leading receiver Christian Kirk and starting LT Walker Little are out. Two of Jacksonville’s top three cornerbacks are also down. Joe Flacco showed enough last week to believe he can capably lead the Browns, and with the line well under a field goal at home, I’ll take a shot.

This total has jumped as much as 4 points at some outlets, seemingly based solely on the notion that Jags QB Trevor Lawrence might play through his ankle injury Sunday. Although he is arguably worth this much to the spread, this matchup rated to be the sort of ugly, grinding affair the Browns prefer on their home field. Now there's real value in taking the Under.

While the focus has centered on Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence's availability, the Browns' QB situation is nearly as important. Veteran Joe Flacco dusted off cobwebs for a creditable performance last Sunday and appears to get the nod over un-ready rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson -- a plus for Browns backers. Lawrence's pride as one who guts through injuries likely puts him on the field, but how effectively can the banged-up QB perform against the league's top-ranked defense? The Browns have failed to cover once in the past 10 outings after a defeat. With speculation heightened that Lawrence will play, the spread has been conveniently shaved in half.

Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a high ankle sprain. The Browns defense is elite at home, allowing 175 total yards to their opponents. They also had two games where they held opponents to under 100 total yards. Even if Lawrence plays, Cleveland is 8th in the league in quarterback knockdown rate and will bring the pressure to make him uncomfortable.

Cleveland is allowing 10 points per game at home and this is Browns' weather. The Jaguars are on a short week following an overtime loss and suffered several key injuries beyond Trevor Lawrence's ankle sprain. Christian Kirk is out and 10 other players showed up on Wednesday's injury report. Look for Cleveland's defense to dominate and for Joe Flacco (254 yards, 2 TDs, INT at Rams) to do enough to get the cover.

The Jags are very beat up and we're special at all on offense even with Trevor Lawrence. Now it's likely a back-up QB, on short prep coming off a devastating loss against a Browns team that is truly elite at home. A Florida team with a bad run game in rain and snow and cold at Cleveland? Browns have allowed 7 offensive TDs at home in 6 games, and 4 came from Lamar Jackson and 2 from the 49ers. The Jags offense ain't that. Browns are great at home overall and fighting for their season. Game will be close enough that no garbage time TDs hurt us.

The Browns aren't in a great spot when it comes to the offense, but in this game they might have enough. We're expecting bad Cleveland weather to linger around -- some wind, plenty of cold, light precip, etc. The Jaguars are likely without Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Beathard is on the injury report as well. The is a banged-up offense going against the league's best defense that's getting Denzel Ward back and Cleveland should be able to run the ball.

This was already going to be a difficult spot for a Jaguars club on short rest going against a Cleveland club that should be desperate for a victory following consecutive 17-point road losses. The spread adjustment suggests the injured Trevor Lawrence is worth about just 4-4.5 points to the line, but in this specific instance he is being undervalued. This is a smash spot for a Cleveland club that will likely close at least -3 so it's prudent to take this now.

I'm going to jump on this line now, as I feel it's going to be tough for Trevor Lawrence to play on the short week with his ankle injury. The Jaguars also need to consider the long-term damage it could have putting him out there at less than 100% against a Browns defense that is ferocious at home. Even with Lawrence, the Jaguars offense went into the tank earlier this season against elite defenses like the 49ers and Chiefs in home spots, so I wouldn't expect much scoring on their end no matter the QB. Even if we get the downgrade to Dorian Thompson-Robinson here, his rushing ability could be key in a projected extreme weather spot. I think this gets to 3.