This Saints team is generally not one I would predict to win by margin, but we got a real look at the Bears behind Tyson Bagent last week – and that was against an extremely lacking Chargers defense. While New Orleans is certainly not as proficient offensively as LA, its defense is far better. The margins are slimmer here than I would like with the line ballooning up, but the Saints should be able to take this by double digits.

Opposing QBs love to pick on Bears second-round pick Tyrique Stevenson. That's resulted in the cornerback making 31 tackles the past four games. On Sunday, the Miami product will be matched up often with Michael Thomas, who is averaging 7.6 targets and has not been targeted fewer than six times in any game. The Saints have passed 60.2 percent of the time the past three games. Look for Stevenson to make at least five tackles.

This is a stellar matchup for Kamara, who is one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league. The Bears have given up the third-most receptions and the most receiving yards in the league to opposing running backs. Kamara has already finished with at least 36 receiving yards in each of his last three games, receiving a total of 27 targets during that stretch. Look for him to blow past this over.

As good as a story the Bears reserve QB Tyson Bagent has been, it won't be a storybook ending in the Superdome. Look for the Saints defense to make things very difficult for Bagent. And while the Saints offense isn't the best, having multiple swings at bat should help them cover this spread.

This number surprises me. Kamara has been over it in all but one game he's been in this year. I get it, the thought is that the Saints will be able to run all over Chicago. But don’t forget how much Carr relies on Kamara both when he’s pressured – a 24.3% target per route run rate, -- and when he’s not – a team-high 39.3% target per route run rate. Even if the Bears defense gets a boost from Montez Sweat, it won’t hinder Kamara in the least. And guess which defense has the worst defensive EPA per dropback when RBs are targeted? Guess which defense has the worst yards per catch allowed and worst YAC/reception allowed when RBs are targeted? It’s da Bears.

This pick is more of a fade on the Bears defense than anything. Carr has a chance to succeed this week at home against Chicago as the Bears have allowed multiple touchdown passes in five of eight games this season. Overall they have allowed the second most touchdown passes to opposing quarterbacks. Although Chicago traded for defensive lineman Montez Sweat this week, I doubt he'll make as much of an immediate impact for a unit that has only generated ten sacks this season.

He has gone over this in three straight games – really since he’s gotten back into game form following his suspension. The Saints offense is running through him and Derek Carr has come to embrace these checkdowns. He has 16 catches for 162 yards the last two weeks alone, and the Bears are horrible covering RBs through the air but have the NFL’s premier rushing defense … So what would you do with Kamara here against a terrible pass defense?

It's been a rough couple weeks for Chris Olave who many people including myself believed he was in store for a monster season. While he still has the chance to turn things around it's been a mostly forgettable season for Olave who has not been on the same page with New Orleans QB Derek Carr. Olave will face a Bears pass defense that is 31st in EPA per dropback and 27th in Coverage Grade. The Bears also deploy one of the least effective pass rushes in the NFL which should give Carr time to find Olave down the field.

Justin Fields already has been ruled out for Week 9 and the Bears may trade their best cornerback (if not defensive player) by far, Jaylon Johnson, by today's deadline as the team has given his camp permission to seek a trade. The 24-year-old Johnson was a second-round pick in 2020 and is in the final year of his rookie contract. Don't be surprised if he lands in San Francisco.

Tyson Bagent turned back into a pumpkin in primetime, but what makes the awful performance even worse is that it came against a Chargers defense that has been downright awful this year. The Saints defense has been excellent against the pass, and it'll be tough for Chicago to score points on the road here. The Saints offense is coming off its best game of the season, but the unit has rolled up 400+ yards in three straight. With Derek Carr looking back in form, this line should be the same as it was last week for the Bears, and anything less means value on the favorite.