The one constant for the Buccaneers this season (well, except last week) has been a strong defense that takes advantage of opponents’ deficiencies. It’s one thing to fall to the Lions and Eagles but quite another against a Falcons team that is 1-5 ATS without a cover since Week 1. If you’re heard this called a bounce-back game for Baker Mayfield, well, that’s because it’s true. Tampa Bay (3-2 ATS) is about to hit the road for an extended stretch and needs this win. Getting this under the key number provides additional value as this could well be a field-goal game, but I would also take it at -3 (+100).

Although fantasy football managers might be frustrated with Robinson's shared backfield duties with Tyler Allgeier, the celebrated rookie has emerged as a dangerous and intentional threat in the passing game. Robinson has clipped this receiving number in 5 of 6 games this season.

Coming out of their bye, the Buccaneers split carries nearly evenly between Rachaad White (7) and Ke'Shawn Vaughn (6). Look for that to continue Sunday versus Atlanta, with each getting about the same number of totes. I also expect Tampa Bay to throw more on early downs.

Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder is 0-4 on the road, with his team scoring a total of 40 points in those losses. He's coming off a performance versus Washington that doesn't inspire confidence. The Bucs rank third in rushing EPA against, so they match up well with Atlanta's run-dominated attack. The Falcons rank 24th in dropback EPA. Look for a bounceback game from Baker Mayfield as the Bucs cover.

This Atlanta defense struggles on the road. Despite being vastly improved from last season, their YPA allowed on the road is still +1.3 higher. The model has a ton of value on Tampa Bay this week, and it's not because of their run game. We have Baker Mayfield projected for 250 passing yards on 40 pass attempts. This is a matchup they could struggle on the ground. Look for Mayfield to try to win this game in the air and bounce back from a tough Lions defense last week.

The Falcons have largely been splitting the rushing workload between Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, but the talented rookie has been a consistent factor in the passing game. He's failed to get five targets or four receptions in just one of his first six games. This is a matchup where running the ball traditionally might be tough, but the Falcons will continue making it a priority to get the ball in Robinson's hands. The Bucs have averaged six receptions surrendered to RBs this season, which is tied with Chicago for sixth-most in the league. We're fortunate that this one isn't juiced to the Over, at least not yet.

White’s been under this in 2 of his past 3 games, and honestly, I am kind of surprised he wasn’t under this in all three of his games even though he’s consistently had a lot of touches in the Bucs offense – until last week when he had just 10 against a tough Lions defense. The Falcons run defense isn’t as tough but they are beefy, and White’s inability to win on the edges and his O-line’s inability to create space between the tackles should lead to another inefficient day running the ball. And they’re top-3 in catch rate allowed to running backs. Please SHOP AROUND for this prop as you should be able to find better odds and/or a higher total.

I have an admission to make: I'm an official Kyle Pitts apologist and have been since he's been in the league. At 6'6", Pitts should be unguardable by most safeties as he lines up in the slot most often. This week he's likely to most face off against the Bucs' Christian Izien who is 5'10" so Pitts' 8" height advantage should be useful for Atlanta over the middle. He's been over 40 yards in 4/6 games thus far and I think he does it again on Sunday.

Desmond Ridder already had 6 interceptions this season, 3 of those came in last week's loss to the Commanders. While Tampa Bay's pass defense ranks 26th (conceding 247 yards per game), they create a lot of pressure upfront with 15 sacks on the season... it's a recipe for opposing QB's to throw picks. The Bucs have hurried every opposing QB to at least 1 interception this season, minus Derek Carr. Cousins and Goff were each picked off twice, while Hurts and Fields each turned the ball over once. Halloween will come early for Tampa as Ridder will serve up at least one cookie.

Under 37.5 - Tampa Bay is 3-2 and Atlanta is 3-3, this game is more than for just first place but building wins to qualify for the playoffs. Both teams are showing strong under trends, with Tampa Bay 4-1 under and Atlanta is 5-1 under. Both teams run the ball higher than the normal team and both play at a below average pace. Most importantly I have both of their defense ranked in the top 10. So far in 2023, 61% of NFL games have gone under the total.

Drake London had a career best 9 receptions and 125 receiving yards last week against the Commanders. Desmond Ridder looks more and more comfortable peppering his number one receiver with targets as well. Meanwhile Tampa Bay is surrendering the third most yards to opposing WRs on a per game basis this season. The Falcons passing game doesn't inspire a ton of confidence but London is an elite talent and I expect him to be heavily involved regardless of game script.

Rachaad White has been brutally inefficient this season and is averaging just 3.3 YPC. He will face a surprisingly stout Atlanta run defense that is tops in the NFL in EPA allowed per rush. The Bucs opted to give Ke'Shawn Vaughn nearly half of the their teams rushing attempt share last week. Neither back did much of anything but it's clear that the Bucs are looking for other options in their backfield. This is another very tough matchup for White.

Even dating to his University of Cincinnati days, Falcons QB Desmond Ridder is a shell of himself on the road -- and just threw three picks Sunday at home in a loss. Ridder still hasn't won away in the NFL (0-4) with an overall away rating of just 70.0. Atlanta has totaled 13 points in its two games away from home this year (one in London). I'd love the Under if it was a few points higher. Kinda wish Bitcoin was higher too, but que sera sera. The Bucs apparently are very healthy entering this game, and it might be Baker Mayfield's last as a starter if they lose. He is dealing with a cut on his hand but non-throwing and practiced fine today.