I think the wrong team is favored in this one as I simply don't trust Russell Wilson against an extremely formidable Jets defense. As for Zach Wilson, I don't think he'll need to do as much as he did last week, but it can certainly be said that he may not be as bad as we thought. Either way, I think the Jets will lean on defense and the running game. Broncos are getting healthier on defense, but I don't think it will be enough to secure the cover.

This doesn’t feel great relying on Zach Wilson. However, he looked good against the Chiefs in Week 4, which helped Garrett Wilson finish with nine receptions for 60 yards. He was targeted 14 times, leaving him with a total of 31 targets over the last three games. The Broncos have allowed the third-most passing yards per game in the league, so with Garrett Wilson’s heavy target share, the over for his yardage prop is appealing.

The 23-year-old wide receiver has been a steady force in the Jets' offense, averaging 64.9 receiving yards this season. His ability to rack up yards has been nearly identical at home and on the road, with averages of 71.1 and 59.3, respectively. That indicates a level of consistency that's key when considering prop bets. The juicy part of this bet lies in the Denver Broncos' struggling defense. They are dead last in opponent passer rating and opponent yards per play. This practically screams opportunity for Wilson and the Jets' offense.

Zach Wilson is coming off the best game of his career last Sunday against the Chiefs, where he completed nearly 72% of his passes for 245 yards with two TDs and no interceptions. It was a big step up from the first three weeks, though he faced a trio of very tough pass defenses in those games (Bills, Cowboys, Patriots). The Broncos have been one of the worst pass defenses ever through four weeks, and it's not just a result of the Dolphins game, as Sam Howell and Justin Fields also threw all over this unit. With Nathaniel Hackett looking to get his revenge on Sean Payton, I expect him to open up the passing game and give Wilson a shot at 300 passing yards.

The Broncos' defense has been a joke so far, but five defenders who did not play in Week 4 could suit up Sunday: Justin Simmons, Frank Clark, P.J. Locke, Josey Jewell and Mike Purcell. The Jets, meanwhile, could be without starting corner D.J. Reed {concussion protocol}. Under Sean Payton, Russell Wilson has a 106.7 passer rating and ranks seventh in yards per attempt. Marvin Mims (26.9 yards per catch) and RB Jaleel McLaughlin have provided a spark. Look for Denver to build off its monumental comeback win (down 28-7 late third quarter at Chicago) and win its second straight.

How much does confidence matter? Wilson appeared to get a big dose Sunday night in frankly outplaying Patrick Mahomes in a close loss. Maybe Zach just has a thing for Taylor Swift, too -- absolutely last time I mention her; now I want to know who or what an Ice Spice is and why she is with Ben Affleck in a donut commercial. Take that back, I don't want to know. That putrid Denver defense made Justin Fields look like a Hall of Famer in Week 4. And you know Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett wants to torch Sean Payton offensively. One bomb to Garrett Wilson and we are about a third of the way to this number.

Here's the bad blood game of the week, with Broncos coach Sean Payton taking shots at Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett for his coaching job in Denver last year during the offseason. Hackett should throw everything in the playbook at a Denver defense that has proven incapable of stopping anything. Even though the stats say the Broncos offense is very good, they had just 311 yards against a decimated Bears secondary and were quiet until going down 28-7. Denver was a bit lucky to win the game, in part due to a fumble return TD, and I like catching points with the Jets against what looks like a terrible team.

The Jets' defense was pretty solid for much of the game Sunday night against the Chiefs. Sure, they didn’t get off the field on the last drive, but the officials helped that a bit and there were some busted plays. I don’t see Denver lighting them up and I am still not sold that Jets QB Zack Wilson is as improved as he showed for much of Sunday night. Take the Under.