Bit of a speculative play here, but Joe Burrow is off the injury report for the Bengals, and the Cardinals have proven they have no legitimate defense. If the Giants were able to run up and down the field on them, Cincinnati -- even in its current state -- should be able to as well. The Bengals win and cover with their defense.

Boyd has topped this in two of four games and should at least a few more targets with Tee Higgins out.

This total is pretty much in the middle of the league range, which seems odd given that Cincinnati ranks at the bottom for offensive scoring and yardage gained. Until QB Joe Burrow shows he has overcome the calf injury that limits his mobility and the Bengals' play-calling, their totals belong in the low 40s -- where this one began before rising. Arizona has embraced its effective ground game. Staying with it can keep the clock ticking and help deliver an Under.

I'm getting a good number and price on a home team that has been very competitive in each of their first four games. As for Cincinnati, they've got injury issues on both sides of the ball and their key issue is the health of Joe Burrow. There are no signs that Burrow will be anywhere close to 100% anytime soon and this Bengals defense is allowing enough on the ground and through the air to make this a very close game. The Cardinals are very live to win this one, but I'll take the 3 points.

Michael Wilson is establishing himself in this offense. He is averaging over 72 yards a game in the last 3 weeks, and only went under 38 yards in Week 1, his NFL debut. Joshua Dobbs has a 158.3 passer rating when targeting the rookie this season. Look for him to be a heavy target this weekend.

Josh Dobbs has run for 41, 55 and 48 yards the past three weeks, and I like him to get at least into the mid-20s versus Cincinnati. Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing continues to call designed rushes for Dobbs, plus he's been willing to scramble. In a tight game, Arizona will use Dobbs' legs to get an edge.

Ertz is receiving nearly 1 in 4 targets from Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs, and is second in the league in tight end targets. He has six catches in three of four games and faces a Bengals team which is allowing the ninth most receiving yards to tight ends this season. If Arizona is playing catch-up mode against the favored Bengals (as I expect), I have a hard time seeing this pick fall short barring injury.

Burrow looks to be healthier than at any point during this season as evidenced by Cincinnati taking him off of their weekly injury report. Arizona doesn't generate a ton of pressure on the quarterback and has been susceptible to deeper passes in their first four games, allowing the fourth-highest yards per attempt and eighth-highest deep ball passer rating. Even likely without Tee Higgins, I see Burrow exploiting a weaker secondary and throwing for closer to 275 yards.

Although Josh Dobbs has been better than expected, he is not a threat to the Bengals' defense, as he primarily relies on short passes and running plays. The Cardinals recently played against the 49ers, known for their physical play. This situation is not ideal. Lou Anarumo criticized the Bengals' effort after missing 12 tackles, a three-year high. The Bengals are ranked sixth (5.3) in penalties per game, while Arizona is tied for last (8.5). Cincinnati's defensive line DVOA is ranked seventh, while Arizona allows the fifth-highest pressure rate (36.5%) per PFF. Joe Burrow is 4-1 straight-up in dome games and 8-4 SU off a loss since 2021. He says his calf is feeling much better. The Bengals are a tremendous buy-low team in this matchup!