There’s plenty of ways to look at this game. Most will probably point to the Chargers’ rough secondary and the Vikings’ desire to exploit that with Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. It’s true, they might have a nice day. But whereas Minnesota is going to gunsling it, Los Angeles actually has offensive balance – even with Austin Ekeler out. The Chargers’ losses are to a Dolphins team that may be the class of the AFC and in overtime against the Titans. The Vikings trailed by two scores to the Eagles before a backdoor push. While it seems like we are unanimous here in this pick, LA is meant to be a contrarian play here with most siding with Minnesota.

Both teams are a little bit better defensively than their perception suggests. The Vikings allowed just 242 total yards in their Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay, while Los Angeles yielded 341 yards to Tennessee last week in a game that went to overtime. This matchup will have some offense but will fall short of the wild shootout many anticipate.

For the Vikes, it seems turnabout is fair play, as after going 9-0 in games decided by a TD or fewer last season, they’re 0-2 in such tests already in 2003, suggesting the law of averages has surfaced in Minneapolis. Failing to recover any of seven fumbles, both ways, thru 2 weeks further confirms the good fortune from 2022 has temporarily disappeared. Making it tougher for Kirk Cousins has been the absence of any credible infantry diversion whatsoever now that Dalvin Cook has left town and Alexander Mattison struggling to provide a passable imitation. We at least know the Bolts, even if Austin Ekeler remains out, have better balance, and it's a must-win for the 0-2 Chargers, too.

This is a contrarian pick. The betting universe foresees a shootout, in large part because of the Chargers' porous defense and the Vikings' predilection to pass most downs give their unproductive ground game. Almost overlooked is that L.A.'s versatile RB, Austin Ekeler, needs more recovery time for an injury, as might Vikings C Garrett Bradbury. The Vikings' opener generated just 37 points, while the latest Chargers game resulted in 48 during regulation. The teams will need plenty of points to exceed the highest total of the young season.

Mattison has been put on notice by the Vikings with the trade for Cam Akers, but he's not expected to debut Sunday. Think Mattison might be motivated a bit to keep Akers in the background? There should be a bevy of TDs Sunday. I'd think A-Matt can get one against a leaky Chargers D.

Both teams are desperate for a win to save their season. This is going to be an entertaining shootout but ultimately I like the Chargers because the Vikings are truly one-dimensional, with no running game whatsoever and no ability to stop the run (259 rushing yards allowed last week). Brandon Staley's defense is bad, but it isn't as historically bad as the numbers indicate so far.

The total for this game has shot up from 49.5 early in the week as the market expects a lot of offense, and they way I'd attack it if you didn't get a good number on the total is to back Kirk Cousins going Over on his pass yards prop, even with it near 300. He's topped 340 in both games while throwing 44 passes in each, and he's up against a Chargers defense that gave up 466 pass yards to Tua Tagovailoa and 246 pass yards on only 24 attempts to Ryan Tannehill. The only thing that could slow Cousins down is throwing fewer than 30 passes in this game, which we don't expect.