The Raiders have been dealt a tough hand to start the season, but what's gone under the radar is they sport one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. Not having Darren Waller, again, is far from ideal, but Las Vegas does get Davante Adams back for perhaps the most lopsided matchup of the week; Marshon Lattimore is out leaving rookie Alontae Taylor to cover one of he game's best wide receivers. Good luck. While I like the Saints far more with Andy Dalton and Taysom Hill than I do Jameis Winston, they still turn the ball over en masse. If the Raiders can break through even a bit with Josh Jacobs on he ground, a bad New Orleans defense will look even worse.

As Josh mentioned, the Saints are a touch banged up but no Darren Waller for the Raiders. Thus the NO defense can basically focus on Davante Adams .... unless Hunter Renfrow gained Ironman rockets.

For the most part, the Saints outplayed their last two opponents, but turnovers cost them against the Cardinals and a late defensive collapse was the culprit against the Bengals. Although Las Vegas should take advantage of New Orleans' depleted secondary, the Raiders are winless on the road and it will be difficult to break through against an equally desperate Saints club.

New Orleans remains decimated in the secondary, which doesn't bode well versus Derek Carr, Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller. Adams and Waller are expected to play despite questionable tags. The Raiders rank second in points per drive and third in scoring. Their four losses have come by a total of 14 points. In short, they're better than their record. The Saints are sticking with Andy Dalton despite the four interceptions he's thrown in the past three games. Look for New Orleans to fall to 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games versus the AFC.

With ace WR Davante Adams apparently recovered from an illness that threatened his status, the ever-improving Raiders can go full-bore against a defense that ranks 31st in points allowed. New Orleans has yielded more than 30 the past three outings, whereas Las Vegas has scored at a 33-point pace over the same period, which lifted it to third in league scoring. New Orleans ranks first in an unwanted category — turnover margin (-10). The decision to stick with QB Andy Dalton over Jameis Winston is an eyebrow-raiser.

The Raiders have figured out that if they give the ball to Josh Jacobs at least 20 times, he’s going to run for at least 143 yards and give them their best chance at winning. That’s what’s happened in their last three games in which he has a combined six touchdowns. They covered the spread in all three, losing once at KC, 30-29. The Saints have lost five of their last six. Raiders keep it rolling and cover.

The Raiders enter this game off a blowout win over the Texans, while the Saints have only won once since topping the Falcons in Atlanta in their opener. But the biggest trend for the Saints has been how many points are being put up in their games. Not only has each of their last four games topped 50 total points, but they've both scored and surrendered at least 25 points in all four games as well. The Raiders have also been involved in plenty of high-scoring games this year, including putting up at least 29 points in three straight. That includes facing a very good Broncos defense as well as the Chiefs in Kansas City. I expect a back-and-forth game here with a lot of points on the board, and I wouldn't be shocked to see both these teams get to 30.

New Orleans has three extra days to get healthy and prepare for coach Dennis Allen's former team, which he coached from 2012-14. The Saints have outgained five of their seven opponents, while the Raiders are just 3-3 in those stats. Las Vegas is ranked No. 27 in third-down defense and No. 30 in red-zone defense. The Saints are ranked No. 4 in third-down defense and No. 13 in red-zone defense. I like the fact Las Vegas won't know which QB will start for the Saints until later this week, and Las Vegas is ranked No. 32 in opponent passer rating. Las Vegas will be playing this game at 10 a.m. on the body clock and is just 9-21 against-the-spread against the NFC of late. I'm taking the Saints.