The Cardinals enter this game with one of the most potent offenses in the NFL, a clean sheet straight up and a 3-1 mark ATS. The 49ers are nearly the opposite at 2-2 on the season with victories over the winless Lions and Eagles, along with a 1-3 ATS streak. Oh, let's add a rookie QB in Trey Lance making his first start and San Francisco's most potent offensive weapon, TE George Kittle, on the IR. Is this line a bit inflated? Sure, by about one point. It's always scary to trust a coach like Kliff Kingsbury with a spread over a field goal, but Arizona's defense is solid enough to contain Lance and give its potent offense enough chances to cover these points.

Some books have this spread at 5.5. While Trey Lance might be a stud someday, I'd think the raw rookie struggles in his first start at QB for the Niners. All the other rookies have struggled in their first this season. Lance is trying to become the fourth rookie QB since 1960 to win his first NFL start against a team that is 4-0 or better, joining Marc Bulger (2002 Rams, vs. 4-0 Raiders), Frank Reich (1989 Bills, vs. 5-0 Rams), and Phil Simms (1979 Giants vs. 5-0 Buccaneers). He won't have Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle, though, as he landed on injured reserve.

When the number came out I wanted no part of the Cardinals, but that was when I thought Jimmy Garoppolo was starting. Trey Lance makes his NFL starting debut and does so on the road. That changes the team rating of the 49ers more than the spread is indicating. Cardinals cover; bet it sooner than later.

Undefeated teams tend to have inflated spreads as the season rolls along, and this line could be doubly inflated with the 49ers likely turning to backup QB Trey Lance. The market typically overadjusts when backup QBs come into the lineup, and there's certainly upside in this situation as Kyle Shanahan could throw a very different offensive scheme at the Cardinals that they haven't seen on film. The 49ers defense has been solid but just hasn't generated many turnovers, but those will come, while the Cardinals are +5 in fumbles lost. The Cardinals defense has a problem stopping the run, which isn't great against a Shanahan offense. Count on the 49ers finding a way to keep this one close.

This number is coming down for good reason. It's an obvious letdown spot for the Cardinals after their monumental win in LA, which broke their eight-game losing streak versus the Rams. Look for the 49ers to run the ball at will against an Arizona defense allowing 5.4 yards per carry. That will help expected starter Trey Lance and enable the 49ers to improve to 11-4 ATS in their last 15 as underdogs.

The 49ers have the better offensive and defensive lines at Football Outsiders. San Francisco defeated the Cardinals 20-12 as a 6-point road underdog last December with C.J. Beathard under center. The Cardinals have very little film on Niners rookie QB Trey Lance, which is going to be a big factor in this game. Don't forget: The 49ers have played more games in Arizona than normal due to the pandemic. San Francisco outgained Seattle by 200+ yards last Sunday even in a loss. This is a great spot to take the points in a division game.