This line has come down nicely prior to kickoff, and it's at the point where I'm comfortable to back the Steelers. Not just that, I'm also going to fade the Raiders following a tremendous, full-effort performance on Monday Night Football. From body clock changes travelling to the East Cast to injuries to the Pittsburgh defense, it's going to be a helluva day for Las Vegas. I'm not sure I'd take the Raiders with their full roster at this number; I'm definitely not going to back a depleted team here. All of this is not to mention a clear coaching edge in Mike Tomlin over Jon Gruden.

We've talked all week about how bad this spot is for Las Vegas, traveling east on a short week following an emotional overtime win. But this line has gotten too high. The Steelers' O-line looks just as bad as it did last year. Najee Harris averaged 2.8 yards per carry in his debut while gaining 78 percent of his yards after contact. Back the Raiders, with their improved defense under Gus Bradley, to stay within the number.

The schedule-makers were unkind to the Raiders, sending them east for an early kickoff after an emotional and taxing Monday night win at home. With Derek Carr at QB, coach Jon Gruden’s teams have covered just one-third of their games in the Eastern time zone. Neither can Gruden lean on top RB Josh Jacobs, scratched with an injury. The defense of Gruden’s counterpart, Mike Tomlin, will focus on slowing peerless TE Darren Walker, targeted 19 times in Vegas’ opener. Steelers QB Ben “Brady Lite” Roethlisberger showed in the opener that he has some throws left in the old right arm.

The Steelers haven’t covered their last four as favorites, but throw that out because the Raiders come off an emotional Monday night overtime win against the Ravens and have a short week with travel to play an East Coast (10 a.m. PT) game. They also have the misfortune of being without feature RB Josh Jacobs. Look for the Steelers to keep the momentum going after fighting back so strong in the win at Buffalo. Steelers to cover.

I understand there are some concerns about Pittsburgh's offense despite the Steelers win over Buffalo last week, but to me that was more about the Buffalo defense. There should be less resistance against Las Vegas at home this week, and the Raiders offense is likely to find room to operate itself. This has all the makings of an enjoyable shootout.

The Raiders might have some serious injury issues Sunday with running back Josh Jacobs, guard Richie Incognito and defensive end Yannick Ngakoue among those who may miss this game. Backup QB Marcus Mariota is out for sure, which will be HUGE if Derek Carr gets banged up. His backup? The absolutely terrible Nathan Peterman (see news feed), on whom Jon Gruden for some reason has a man-crush. Plus, the Raiders lost two other guys to season-ending injuries Monday night -- so, a very short week with a 10 a.m. Pacific time kickoff. Pittsburgh is healthy. This has risen to 6 at some books so I'm going to jump now. The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their past six September games.

This will be a very tough game for the Raiders after the week they've had: an overtime win on Monday night before flying all the way to the East Coast to play a 1 p.m. ET game in a stadium that will be full for the first time since the 2019 season. I'm not going to overreact to the Raiders beating Baltimore in the first real home game at Allegiant. Steelers win comfortably.

This is the perfect time to fade the Raiders, after they squeezed out an emotional overtime win on Monday night in their first game in front of the Vegas faithful. Now they travel cross country for an early Sunday kick dealing with several injuries, including to backup QB Marcus Mariota. Why care about a backup QB injury? Mariota showed on Monday he can come in and provide a spark with his legs, and that won't be available against the Steelers defense, which just shut down an elite offense on the road. While I still have concern with the Pittsburgh offense, they'll put up enough points to cover this number.

I think the Raiders are still celebrating that big comeback win on Monday Night Football. It was a very emotional game for the Silver and Black. I think this Raiders' defense will have its hands full against a pissed-off team, full of skill players on the outside. It's a short week for the road team playing at 10 a.m. Pacific Time against arguably the No. 1 front seven in football. The Raiders are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after playing on Monday night. According to Marc Lawrence's Playbook, coach John Gruden is 15-25 ATS in his career after a straight-up underdog win. Take the hungry host.

The Raiders just played an emotional home opener, beating the Ravens in their first game in front of the Vegas faithful. This appears to be a clear comedown spot for the team as a whole and particularly the offense, as they prepare a Steelers defense that just shut down an elite Buffalo unit in Week 1. But note that the Steelers offense didn't play particularly well in that game either, in particular getting nothing done in the first half. They should have an easier task here moving the ball against the Raiders defense, but I'm not sure they have the upside to score 35-plus in any given week. And that's what I think needs to happen for this to get Over.