I've been holding out on making this pick in the hopes that spread would get off -3, but it's clearly not going to so we will take the moneyline way out. The tundra will be frozen at Lambeau (actually, I'm sure they have some sort of heating system under there at this point) as it's going to be around 18 degrees at kickoff with about an inch of snow expected. The Packers have been good against the run this season and that's obviously key to beating Tennessee. I don't hugely trust Ryan Tannehill in those frigid conditions -- quite the opposite can be said of Aaron Rodgers.

Aside from the inherent benefits of playing a home primetime game in Lambeau Field, the Packers are probably the most consistent team in the league. Given their offensive weapons and Aaron Rodgers historically being unphased by snow, the Titans will be trying to keep up throughout. The problem is that Tennessee's defense is so lackluster by comparison that even if it has a second-half lead, I would not trust it. The play action for Ryan Tannehill will be taken away if the Packers are able to slow down Derrick Henry. The Packers should cover the field goal, which I like much more if you can get it as opposed to -3.5 or -4, which would be my absolutely limit.

Something will have to give as the Packers boast a 6-1 home record and the Titans are 5-1 on the road. Look for Tennessee's defense to step up to the challenge against Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers, who was sacked a season-high five times by Carolina last week. Take the small underdog in the Titans.

It’s kind of shocking we haven’t seen more movement to the Under with the forecast for temperatures below 30 degrees, snow and 12 mile per hour winds. Both teams have great running games and both will have success with it, and then both will hit some open targets on play-action. Scores, yes, but the scoring won't be what it would be if the game were indoors. I’m respecting the conditions and played the Under.

The Packers had an extra day of rest. The wind chills will be in the teens, with a chance of snow. In other words, this game sets up perfectly for Aaron Rodgers and the home team. The Pack has had trouble covering big numbers lately, but this is only a field goal. Lay it.

Green Bay losing a winter night game at home in freezing temperatures and possible snow? Not happening. QB Aaron Rodgers seems impervious to inclement weather. Tennessee ranks 29th for passing yards permitted, owing in part to a weak pass rush. Give A-Rod time in the pocket, and he will flourish. Forget about the Packers sleepwalking through the second half last Sunday against Carolina. They have followed an ATS defeat by covering in 13 of the last 16 instances.

When you see the public is lining up to fade the Packers at home in December, you probably assume Aaron Rodgers is out for the year and Green Bay is limping to the finish line. But this team is currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC behind a QB who may win MVP. Are the Titans just that much of a powerhouse? They're certainly impressive on offense, ranking third in DVOA and second in points per drive. But the Packers top those marks and do much better on the defensive side of the ball, where the Titans cannot drum up any pressure. That's not great when up against Rodgers, Davante Adams and Co. Try and get Packers -3 but lay the points either way.

Tennessee's offense is humming, with Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill complementing each other. This is the Titans' time of year. Green Bay mustered only 3 points in the second half last week, part of a disturbing trend of hot starts that fade. Take the points in this shootout.