After waiting all week for an improved line, I'm a bit dismayed that this never fell below a field goal. With that not going to happen, I'll take the Chiefs at the key number. The Patriots are using being underdogs as motivation, and that's fine, but they also deserve to be the 'dogs here. All the advantages that New England had last week are gone: homefield, opponent flying cross country, limited offensive weapons to defend. Kansas City is at home, rested and features a bevy of playmakers. The Patriots will rattle Patrick Mahomes early and may even take a lead, but stopping him for four quarters at home is a tall task for a unit that gave up 40 to this team back in NE. It's time for the Pats to fall back to Earth based on their 2018-19 talent and performances.

I was expecting the number to drop below -3 and that's when I was going to play KC. But it looks to be going the other way so I'm laying -3 and expect the number to eventually get to -3.5. First of all, the weather isn't as bad as the forecast suggested early in the week -- 31 degrees isn't bad and it will make it easier for Patrick Mahomes to have a decent day. Despite Patriots coach Bill Belichick being a master in the playoffs, I saw the Pats lose five of eight road games and look bad while doing it. The Chiefs' defense is better at home allowing just 17 ppg. Chiefs are the play Sunday.

It's scary to go against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, but the Patriots just haven't been nearly as good on the road this season. They're 9-0 in Foxboro and 7-2 ATS, scoring 33.8 points per game. On the road they've gone 3-5 SU and ATS while scoring only 21.6 points per game. Patrick Mahomes won't have an amazing day against this New England defense, but the Chiefs will do enough to get past the GOATs here.

Rarely do we see the Patriots as underdogs in the playoffs, but here we are. Earlier in the season, the Chiefs got a good look at the Patriots personnel as they played a thriller that came down to the wire, resulting in a Pats win. Rematch games are all about adjustments, but the one constant is that you trust YOUR guys with the ball in big moments. Brady will be big, but Mahomes, at least today, will be bigger.

It will be brutally cold, but winds will be light. While the Chiefs' defense plays better at home, they're not going to shut down a balanced Patriots attack that just put up 41 points on the Chargers. Even though it won't match the 43-40 thriller these teams played in Week 6, both offenses should do enough to get us Over the total.

If you're going to pick against the Patriots in the playoffs, do it when they're on the road facing the best offense in the NFL. The Chiefs have scored 26 points or more in every game this year, and they'll be looking for revenge after scoring 40 in Foxborough early in the season and losing. The Patriots were 3-5 straight up on the road this year, and while the win in Chicago was impressive, the other two game against Josh McCown and Derek Anderson. The game should favor the team that's better on third downs and in the red zone. That favors Kansas City (second in both) over New England (middle of the pack in both).

OK, let’s be honest here: New England has overachieved this season. The Patriots are no longer loaded at most positions, yet have won a dozen games despite barely outgunning opponents on average per play. K.C., conversely, had a whopping margin of nearly a full yard per snap. QB Tom Brady, never mobile, will be tested by a defense that topped the league in sacks. Dink-and-dunk worked last weekend, but Andy Reid’s D will be ready for it. The Pats have dropped their last three road postseason games, straight-up and against the spread, and are 5-7 ATS under Bill Belichick in AFC finales. Give me the kid (QB Patrick Mahomes) over the aging master.

Damien Williams has ably replaced Kareem Hunt, and with Sammy Watkins back, Patrick Mahomes has all the weapons he needs. K.C. also got an extra day of rest, which matters at this time of year. The Chiefs' defense plays much better at home. Lay the field goal.

This total keeps falling due to the extreme cold. But even in that weather I think both teams will be able to score. And somebody very well could return a kick for a score. The Chiefs' defense is not going to show up this week the way it did against the worn-out Colts. The cold will be tougher on defensive players. Go Over.

Tom Brady is 20-4 when the temperature is below 30. I don't know where that Kansas City defense came from last week, but I don't think they'll play the same way against New England. The Patriots can run the ball and they've got James White as an excellent receiver out of the backfield. That's going to be tough for K.C. to defend. Gronk blocked his tail off last week, taking two guys out at a time. Up until last week, the Chiefs had lost six straight home playoff games. I'm not going to be a recency guy.

Kansas City coach Andy Reid's offense has had its way with Bill Belichick's Patriots defense in three of the past four meetings, scoring 40-plus points. But the one game the Chiefs didn't cover in those four was a playoff game, a 27-20 New England win. Belichick will have a better plan than earlier this season. Most of all, the weather plays a role -- temperatures could be sub-zero with the wind-chill factor. Under is the top play Sunday.

The high in Kansas City is projected to be 16 degrees, and that's a concern for anyone taking the Over. There have been 61 NFL games since 2000 where the temperature was 19 degrees or less, and only 11 of those games finishes with 57 points or more. In the playoffs, we've seen just 34 games all-time where the temperature was 19 degrees or less, and only five of those managed to finish with at least 57 points. I'd be shocked if these teams engage in a shootout in these conditions, and with the total already dropping to 56, I'm getting on board now.

The numbers that project the high and low temperatures on Sunday in K.C. will never be mistaken for the final score of a game involving the Patriots or these new offensive-minded Chiefs. High: 15 degrees, Low: 8 degrees. Until the weather people change their minds, the only play is the Under. The case is bolstered by New England’s 8-2 Under streak and K.C.’s extended trend in the same direction. The Chiefs have landed Under in 50 of their last 73 home games, most of them during Andy Reid’s term. Don’t be swayed (too much) by the 83-point outburst in the regular-season matchup. Defenses will adjust enough to lower the scoring.

The Patriots won the first matchup, but that was at Gillette Stadium and it could have gone either way. In my projections, the host Chiefs are the play in Sunday's AFC Championship Game. They're covering 56 percent of my simulations. The home team in conference championships have won all 10 games the last five years, and is 8-2 against the spread. Lay the points.