Don't think twice about this. The Chiefs should be double-digit road favorites against a Browns team with new leadership. There may be some improvements from a philosophy standpoint, but it is not suddenly going to get fixed in one week against the most explosive offense in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes gets his way eventually, even if Cleveland's defense stands tall early in the game. Look for Travis Kelce to eat as well. Chiefs roll.

Cleveland's only hope is to control the ball on offense. I have the Browns' defense ranked 15th in yards per play allowed and 12th in points per play allowed. Those numbers could be far better if not for the offense putting them in bad positions. I have the Browns' offense ranked No. 27 but ranked an even worse 29th in yards per play.

Grab the value on the Over even with the disarray of the Browns under defensive-minded interim head coach Gregg Williams.

Cleveland’s twin dismissal of its head coach and offensive coordinator might work out in the long run. Short term, not so much. That is too much upheaval to overcome. Besides, the Browns need to worry about their defense against potent Kansas City. In three of the past five games, they have been punched for 33, 38 and 45 points. K.C. has covered in all four road dates while racking up 38, 42, 27 and 40 points. Then there are QB Baker Mayfield’s 20 sacks suffered in those five Cleveland games. Be scared, Browns backers. Be very scared.

The Chiefs' offense has been virtually unstoppable this year, thanks largely to MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes. But although he brings the No. 1 pass offense per DVOA into this game, he'll square off with DVOA's top pass defense in the Browns. The Chiefs are awful against the run, and the Browns' new offensive staff should look to chew up clock and limit the number of possessions the Chiefs get. That helps us keep the total Under the number.

I can understand why you might be concerned about this Chiefs defense, particularly on the road, but I don't know how the Browns keep pace. Yes, the Browns have a good defense, but the next defense to stop KC's offense will be the first. Throw in all the turnover on the coaching staff, and while it may improve things in the long run, it'll only make things worse this week.

My trusty projections indicate the Chiefs covering the spread nearly 60 percent of time by an average of 12 points. Kansas City's offense is nearly unstoppable and Cleveland's defense -- its strength over the first quarter of the season -- is faltering badly, including a 33-point yield to the Steelers. The Chiefs hung 30 on the Broncos on Sunday, they'll put up at least that many Week 9 while holding the Browns' offense in check. Lay the points with K.C.