The Minnesota Timberwolves come into game one against Denver well rested. Several starters did not play to conclude the final three games of the season. That can be tough to get back into game flow in a tough road spot like Denver. Look for Ayo Dosunmu to provide a spark off the bench, as he is one of the new pieces that Denver does not have strong intel on, and is ready as he played high minutes to finish the season. Take his over.

With the Timberwolves dealing with injuries down the stretch, Ayo Dosunmu had a span of nine straight starts. He averaged 18.7 points and 33 minutes in that role. He came off the bench in his final game of the regular season, scoring 15 points across 26 minutes. He has become an important player for the Timberwolves, so expect him to play around 25 minutes Saturday. With him shooting 51.7% from the field and 43.9% from three for the season, that’s a large enough role to make this over appealing.

FanDuel (-154). While this is a decent amount of juice, I’m surprised that we’re getting anything remotely playable on an Anthony Edwards 2.5 three pointers made line. Edwards averaged 3.4 makes per game this season, notching at least three in 68% of games he played at least 24 minutes. He’ll now face a Nuggets defense that allowed the sixth most threes attempted on the eighth highest three point rate. Edwards shot 31 threes in three games against the Nuggets this season, accounting for 46% of his shots (a bump from the usual 42%). I’d bet this up to -165.

Cam Johnson is averaging 17.8 points this month, and I like him to get off to a strong start vs. Minnesota in Game 1. He has cleared this prop total in eight of his last nine games. Yes, he was held scoreless by Minnesota on March 1, but his body of work lately has been impressive. Johnson has shot over 45 percent from deep since that game.

Nikola Jokic continues to dominate, and the additions of Jonas Valanciunas and Bruce Brown have given Denver’s bench a significant boost. With Jamal Murray healthy and the team displaying elite shooting, Denver consistently performs well in close game metrics—a sharp contrast to Minnesota’s recent road struggles. This advantage is even more pronounced at Ball Arena, where Denver’s proven chemistry and Jokic’s playmaking often overwhelm opponents at high altitude. The Nuggets are undefeated in first-round home games when opening a series at Ball Arena over the past three seasons, including a commanding 109-80 win over Minnesota as 9-point favorites in 2023. I like the home team in this spot.