Golden State has a 56.5% chance of covering +4.5 so I like the 0.5 pt we are getting vs the +4 that other books have (53% covering +4). It’s a bad sign for Houston that they outshot GS from 3pt range and outrebounded them by double digits but still lost the last two. In this case I think there will be regression to the mean where the Warriors get the edge in 3pt% and the rebounding is a little closer (HOU +5) which keeps this closer than oddsmakers expect. The Warriors are 25-17 ATS on the road because they actually have a much better point differential away (+4 per game) than at home (+2).

Rockets backup center Steven Adams played a series-high 26 minutes in Game 4, despite Steve Kerr's tactic of intentionally fouling him. Adams was plus-16 in a game his team lost by three. Think about that. Adams has the best plus-minus of any Rocket in this series (+5.8), and Houston's best lineup has featured Adams alongside Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith, Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet. Adams grabbed five offensive rebounds in Game 4 and his presence is crucial, considering Houston's halfcourt struggles. If he hits a couple free throws early -- Adams is 5 of 7 the past two games -- the 31-year-old vet should play big minutes. Many books have moved to 7.5 rebounds and I would still go Over that for half a unit.

B365/BetMGM @ 1.5u. In the two full games Jimmy Butler has played this series, he’s notched 31 and 33 points plus assists. Seeing 40 minutes in each contest, this could be considered a light line for Butler, who averaged 26.2 points plus assists per 36 minutes as a Warrior this season. Tough matchup on paper, but Butler has had no issue with the Dillon Brooks defense. I’d bet this up to over 25.5 for 1 unit.

The Warriors have the Rockets on the brink of elimination. Their only loss in this series came in Game 2 when Jalen Green exploded for 38 points for the Rockets. Green did not score more than nine points in any of the other three games in this series. Jimmy Butler also played just eight minutes in Game 2 before leaving with an injury. The Warriors are the better team and the Rockets struggle to score, so I think the Warriors at least keep this close enough to cover the spread.

Draymond Green hit two three-pointers early in Game 4. Those would be the only points that he scored in the entire game. He finished with six points, eight rebounds and two assists. He attempted seven shots in the game. In this entire series, Green has attempted a total of just 29 shots. He is also averaging just 2.5 assists. Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler are both expected to play in Game 5, so look for Green to have a very low usage rate again.

The Rockets are a good defensive team, but they have not slowed down Jimmy Butler. In Game 1, he scored 25 points across 42 minutes. He only played eight minutes in Game 2 before suffering a pelvis injury that also kept him out of Game 3. In Game 4, he returned to score 27 points over 40 minutes. Butler is the main scoring option behind Stephen Curry and should continue to play a ton. I’m surprised that this line has been set so low.

Like the weather, totals patterns eventually change. So it is in the first round of the NBA playoffs, as the early under trend is now giving way to a spate of overs (8-3 since Sunday). starting to take over as the first round winds down, standing 8-3 since Sunday. This matchup was one of those over on Monday; for the Rockets, getting top scorer G Jalen Green more involved will be key, as he's had three single-digit scoring efforts in the first four games, sandwiched around a 38-point showcase in Game 2...Green is capable of much more. Meanwhile, the Dubs again have Jimmy Butler back in the fold and expect this scoreline to resemble the 215 we saw on Monday night. Play Warriors-Rockets Over.

The Warriors do not have anyone who can limit Alperen Sengun, and at home with their season on the line how can the Rockets not ride him here? If he stays out of foul trouble, he goes over this number. In a desperate spot he might get 40 mins and play through 4 fouls if he has to. He has 31-10, 15-11, 17-16, 26-9 in the 4 games thus far and hit 40 minutes on the court for the first time in the series on Monday. Sengun has a top 10 rebounding % in the postseason and I bet he ends up taking more foul shots back at home.

Riding the trend of really ugly first halves. Even the return of Himmy Butler didn't make the game flow more. The series is very personal, leading to choppy play and stupid fouls and no offensive flow, especially in first half. HOU averaging 50/half and GS just 47.3. The Rockets have NBA-low 49.7 EFG in first half and GS is 13th at 44.1. Both are turning the ball over on more than 16% of possessions in the first half. Neither has a FG% over 43.5% in the first half. Seems to be the tenor and cadence and I'm not sure it changes here. It's been tough sledding for the shooters.

The Warriors know how to handle money time and the Rockets inexperience keeps showing in the clutch. I'll grab the points and GS is very live to win outright. HOU is struggling in half-court game and the Warriors have command, despite Steph being a non-factor in Game 4 and playing facilitator in Games 2-3. Warriors +16.9 net rating in 4th quarter is key. Ridiculous 3.75 assist/TO ratio in the 4th quarter while Houston has an obscene 20% TO-rate in that quarter in the series. Expect a bounce back game from Steph. Fourth-quarter ball movement has been killing Houston.