The Bucks are 15-1 in their past 16 home games. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday couldn't make anything in Phoenix, but their home splits are way better this postseason. I really have no opinion on the spread (and yep, I will ML some NFL too; better to win some $$$ than nothing on a bad beat) but expect/hope for a close game that the home side will win.

This basically is a must-win game for the Bucks, who return to Milwaukee down 0-2. Giannis Antetokounmpo was stellar in Game 2, but cold shooting efforts from Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday were too much to overcome. Over its last five home playoff games, Milwaukee is 4-1, with all four wins coming by at least 11 points. Expect the home crowd to help the Bucks post a decisive win and get themselves back in the series.

The Bucks return home after allowing 118 points in both games at Phoenix. The Bucks are 3-0 straight-up in Game 3s this postseason. Role players perform better at home, and I expect the Bucks to play much better defense after reviewing the tape. The Bucks are 10-5 straight-up when playing with two days of rest while the Suns are 5-3 straight-up. Milwaukee has more experience playing with two days off. The Bucks are 33-11 straight-up at home. Take the hungry host.

Both these teams have gone Over in their last four games and the adjusted total for Game 3 was posted too low. The Bucks want to play fast and the Suns believe they are best when playing fast so there won’t be any resistance by the Suns to slow them as we’ve seen other teams try with the Bucks. I look for the Bucks to run an efficient offense in the paint again attacking the rim, getting to the foul line often (clock stops), and for Khris Middleton to be a factor at home. I'm on the Over.

Early money has come in on the Bucks and I agree with it. They already have overcome a 2-0 series deficit in the playoffs, against Brooklyn, so the belief is there. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday aren't going to combine for 12-of-37 shooting in Milwaukee, like they did in Game 2 in Phoenix. After two full days of rest, they'll bounce back in front of their raucous fans and give Giannis Antetokounmpo the help he needs. Look for Milwaukee, with its season on the line, to dominate inside and try to get DeAndre Ayton in foul trouble. The Suns are thin inside with Dario Saric and Torrey Craig injured. Phoenix will win the series, but this should be the Bucks' night.