Micah's Past Picks
Coach Richard Pitino comes off a 26-10 season and NCAA tourney bid and looks to have an even better 2025 at 21-4 sitting first place in the Mountain West. The Lobos have a seven-game win streak going on. Utah State has only lost three games this season but they're 11-13 against the spread. That says that they're overrated a bit. After dominating the series, Utah State has some trouble not covering the last three meetings and losing two of them to New Mexico. Utah State has won their last three games but their last loss was to New Mexico 82-63 at Logan, Utah. New Mexico averages 83 points a game and Utah State averages 81. New Mexico to cover.
Oklahoma City is at Minnesota tonight and they have a seven-game winning streak going. They've covered six of those games during the win streak and they'll probably cover tonight too but I think OKC controls the pace and gets over this low total for them. They average 117 points a game and the Timberwolves allow 108.2 per game. OKC has gone over seven of their last 10 games. During their seven-game win streak, OKC has scored 121 or more six times and 115 the other time. They go over tonight as well.
This will be the first meeting between Minnesota and Milwaukee this season with the Bucks winning three of the last four meetings. The Bucks have lost six of their last eight games. The Timberwolves had a three-game winning streak going before losing at Cleveland two nights ago. The Bucks have the No. 5 defense in the NBA holding opponents to 45.2% shooting. The Timberwolves are the No. 3 three-point shooting team in the NBA hitting 38.3% of their shots. The Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Timberwolves win.
The Suns have lost five of the last seven games including the last three without Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. Durant is supposed to play today and who knows about Beal, but who cares about Beal? When Booker, Beal, and Durant are playing together they're just .500. The Grizzlies have won their last two against Phoenix including December 31st this season when they won 117-112. The Grizzlies have the No. 5 offense in the NBA and the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA. The Grizzlies have won 10 of their last 12 with the last one losing to the NBA's best team Oklahoma City. Memphis has 35 wins and 34 covers against the spread. Memphis wins.
Mark Byington has had an unbelievable first year as head coach for Vanderbilt after the team was 9-23 last year and 4-14 in SEC play. Now they're 17-6 and 14-9 against the spread. Vanderbilt averages 81 points a game and they welcome Auburn who scores 85 points a game. However, on defense, Auburn only allows 67 points per game. Vanderbilt's is going to play a spirited home game and score despite a good Auburn defense. Auburn will dictate the pace with their normal play. Auburn has gone over 14 of their games this season including their last four. Over is the play.
Mississippi State has won three of their last eight and covered only once in their last eight. SEC conference is tough and the last two wins for Mississippi State have been Georgia and South Carolina. They currently sit 10th in the conference. With Florida, we've got them coming off a huge win at Auburn and they won five of their last six. Florida has only lost three games this season, Mississippi State has six losses. The question is can Florida maintain their great level of play on the road two games in a row? Mississippi State has been the team having trouble in the SEC, not Florida. The spread probably should be higher in this game so I'll lay the small price.
Since Tennessee lost to Kentucky at home 78-73 as a 10.5-point favorite, they've won three straight including wins over Florida and Missouri. Kentucky has won four of the last five meetings. But Kentucky's been having some trouble outside their win against Tennessee they've lost four of their last six games with the other one coming against horrible South Carolina. This is a spot for Tennessee to show up and get some payback and they've only lost four games this season. Tennessee has the No. 1 defense in college basketball, holding opponents to 36.2% shooting. They also have a third-ranked scoring defense allowing 59.2 points a game. Tennessee to win.
Purdue's first place in the Big Ten and have won 11 of their last 12 games, including four straight. They're only half-game ahead of Michigan, who they played on January 24th and blew them out 91-64 in West Lafayette. Purdue is looking for their third straight regular-season Big Ten title and they're doing it in the same fashion with lights out shooting at 49.7 percent, fourth-best in the country. Purdue was Michigan's last loss, but what happened at Minnesota when they lost 84-81 as 10.5-point favorites? Michigan hasn't covered their last seven games. Purdue to win.
The Lakers have beat the Jazz three straight times but Utah has covered the last two games. The Jazz played well in their last two road games but lost the cover very late in both. They're playing very well and efficient lately and the Lakers will be a challenge for them with LeBron James and Luka Doncic making his debut with the LA. The Lakers have won and covered five straight. Lakers to get the cover late.
AJ Brown's going to be a big part of Sunday's game and he went over the yardage total his last game but five of his last seven games he stayed under. He's been a non-participant in the offense. No wonder why he's reading books on the sidelines. He's bored but he's ready for the Super Bowl and he's one of the main cogs in the box score in my mind that has the Eagles winning 38-24. Brown hits at least one long pass and likely scores but establishes he’s there to the Chiefs' defense. Over Brown's receiving yards.
Ever since Dallas Goedert came back from injury he's been a feature part of the Eagles passing game. He's not just a dump-off tight end he is an integral part of what the Eagles game plan shows off. His last three games have gone over the total. His last game was the solid against Washington getting 85 yards. You get a couple of Saquon Barkley runs, then you get a Goedert pass, Barkley runs, and then hit AJ Brown for a long one. Goedert over yardage.
This is a buy-low-sell-high situation for DeAndre Hopkins as he's gone under the total in his last six games and eight of nine. But his total has dropped from 51.5 on November 10th to 12.5 for the Super Bowl. They brought Hopkins in for his experience and skills and they’ll use it in his first big game. They've given his balls to Hollywood Brown to integrate him into the system but Hopkins isn't sitting the Super Bowl out. In fact, he's coming in dressed for success with the mink coat his dad bought him. He'll get over 12.5 yards.
Patrick Mahomes went under pass attempts in his last two games but he was over pass attempts in his six previous starts. And in this game, he's going to pass a lot more because he’ll be in desperation mode. The Chiefs running game isn't that special either. He's going to have to manufacture scores and do it against the number one defense. The bet isn't completions but attempts. Over attempts for Mahomes in this game.
The Eagles have put it all together winning 14 of their last 15 games and the one they lost at Washington was when Jalen Hurts left up 21-7 in the first quarter. They ended up losing the game 36-33 with the backup quarterback. There's nothing like the Eagles in the NFL. The running game will keep Philly leading this game and that goes for the first half and several props geared towards a 38-24 Eagles win.
Which way is the line going to go? It's been sitting on 1.5 or 1 and surprisingly the Chiefs were listed as the opening favorite. There's only been 15% of the bets taken in by Thursday. All the action comes in Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and the wise guy picking their side doesn't matter amid all this small money equaling larger bets than the wise guys. Jalen Hurts scored a touchdown in five of his last seven games and in one of the games he played only a portion of the first quarter. And it's not just the tush push he sometimes find the seam and takes off for the score. I take the yes prop on Hurts scoring a TD.