Micah's Picks (1 Live)
Micah's Past Picks
We've got two 3-0 teams with UCLA facing Arizona, playing at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood. Both teams return three starters from last year, but the thing that sticks out to me is that UCLA hasn't covered one game out of their three. Arizona came stomping right off the first whistle, beating the National Champion Florida Gators in the season opener 93-73 while getting +3.5. UCLA's toughest game so far was against Pepperdine as 29.5-point favorites. Arizona shoots 51% from the field and 43% from three-point range. Tommy Lloyd looks like he has himself a nice squad at Arizona this season. Arizona to win.
Purdue won and covered against Alabama the last two seasons, and they're an underdog this year despite having almost the same roster as the last two seasons. Four starters return, only one for Alabama. Trey Kaufman-Renn has been out for the previous two games and makes his season debut for Purdue today. He scored 26 against Alabama last season. Braden Smith is the best point guard in the nation, and he's back. Leadership is intact. Purdue wasn't happy about their last performance against Oakland, where they only won by 10. This team prides itself on defense, holding opponents to 37% shooting percentage. However, they recognize that they're better than what they showed against Oakland, which dropped Purdue to No. 2 in the polls. Purdue wins.
Minnesota coach Niko Medved has started his first year in excellent fashion, winning and covering their first two games while holding those opponents to 33.6% shooting. It's a great start as 25+ point favorites in each game, but Missouri has played three victorious games and has the offense shooting 57.2% while scoring 94 points per game. Missouri only lost three key players from last year's team that went 22-12, and three starters return for this year's squad. Missouri controls this game at home and wins by 10 or more.
Houston has a tough one tonight when they face Oakland, who has already faced No. 7 Michigan, No. 1 Purdue, and now they face this week's No. 1 in Houston. Oakland was tied with Purdue at the half and is part of the reason Purdue is no longer number one. Oakland did that. The area I'm looking to bet on is the under, which Houston has gone under in six straight games dating back to last season. If you went to Houston, you went to play for Kelvin Sampson's defense. He's built the program off defense, and even though they're holding their opponents to 38% shooting after two games, I don't think he's happy. I think Houston is going to badger Oakland non-stop with pressure.
It's going to be cold in Green Bay tonight, with temperatures at 29°, a 7% chance of precipitation, and only 4 mph of wind. It's good football weather and good passing weather, or as good as it can be at 29°. The main point I have for this game is that the Eagles come off a bye, and they have won the last three meetings with the Packers over the last four seasons. They’ve won their last four games following a bye, and while it's not a good look for the Packers losing at home to the Panthers last week, this bet is more about the Eagles and their new players they just traded for off a bye. Eagles to win.
Coach Scott Drew has a completely new roster at Baylor, but the good news is that they've played together as a team. They've been together since July in Germany at the World University Games, where Baylor went 5-1 in the tournament. Washington beat Arkansas Pine-Bluff and Denver and brings back one starter from last year, while just about everybody else is a transfer in Danny Sprinkle’s second year as Washington's coach. Washington finished 13-18 last year, which was a big change from Sprinkle’s days at Utah State and Montana State. Baylor's more together, and they are at home. Baylor to cover.
It's going to be a beautiful fall day in San Francisco at 80° with no chance of rain and the wind blowing at 3 mph, which means this is good scoring weather. It's a battle of two six-win teams, with the Rams coming in on a three-game win streak, scoring 34 or more in their last two games. The Rams are the number one passing team in the NFL, with Matthew Stafford producing 258 yards per game with 21 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The question is how many points the 49ers are going to score with Mac Jones, and he'll be fine. The 49ers won a Week 5 game against the Rams, 26-23, and have gone over in five of the last six meetings.
The first game between the Seahawks and the Cardinals was in Week 4, and the Cardinals were 2-1 at the time. They fell behind 20-6, but then scored two touchdowns in the final six minutes of the game. They saved too much time on the clock, and Seattle won the game in the last second, 23-20. It was the eighth straight win by the Seahawks over the Cardinals. Kyler Murray is out, but the Cardinals have Jacoby Brissett, who has looked better in the offense. He's already getting praise from the receivers because he communicates better. Brissett doesn't spend all his time playing video games. Their biggest defeat this season has been by four-points. They've been in every game they've played this year. Cardinals
The Saints have been worse on the road than at home, getting soundly beaten by whoever they're playing. They were at the Rams last week and lost 34-10. They've traded their most dangerous receiver, and they have a quarterback controversy with Tyler Shough taking over as the starting quarterback. The Saints have the No. 29-ranked offense, putting up 287 yards per game, and the defense of the Panthers is 13th-ranked, allowing 316 yards per game. The Panthers run attack at home has been strong, and overall they ranked 5th with 139 yards per game. Bryce Young has won and covered all three of his home starts; Andy Dalton started against Buffalo. The Panthers have won and covered four of their last five games.
Alabama has won the last two seasons against LSU and four of the last five meetings. They come off a 7-point win over South Carolina, which did not cover the 12.5 spread. But they've had a week off to game plan for LSU, and I think they come out fired up like they were against Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Missouri. Alabama is coming with the 24th-ranked defense that allows 312 yards per game. LSU's offense imploded internally, and they only average 355 yards per game, which ranks 98th. That's basically why LSU hasn't lived up to its potential. LSU's offense only scores 25 points per game, and Alabama's defense only allows 18 points per game. I think Alabama wins by two touchdowns or more.
The Broncos won both games last year after a long succession of Raider wins, and the last three have gone over the total. The Raiders have lost six of their last seven games, losing two of them by one point, but they still didn't cover. I love tight end Brock Bowers, but Geno Smith is hard to watch. The Raiders have the 30th-ranked offense, averaging 283 yards per game, while Denver has the No. 3 defense, allowing 279 yards per game. Denver also leads the NFL with the least amount of yards per play allowed at 4.8. Where I think the Raiders are in trouble is that Geno Smith is going to get punished by the No. 1 sack team in the NFL. Broncos.
Nebraska-Omaha lost its first game of the season to Murray State in Sioux Falls because the Racers made 30 of 33 free throws, and they were more aggressive and active. Omaha shot better than them at 47% with six players in double figures. Omaha made the NCAA tournament last year and finished with a 22-13 record and 13-3 in Summit League play. They return three starters from last year and two key players from their regular rotation. Pick or -1 is acceptable with Abilene Christian, but I'll take anything extra with Omaha.
The Cardinals are 2-5 on the season, with all the losses coming in the last five. But if you look at those losses, they were by four points or less in a variety of last-second kicks, losing the leads in the 4th quarter, and the debauchery that happened in giving the Titans their first win of the year. On top of it all, Kyler Murray has been out for the last two games, and backup Jacoby Brissett has looked good in defeat, so much so that they have a mini-quarterback controversy. It's lit a fire under Murray that will take the Cardinals to victory in Dallas against the worst defense in the NFL. The Cowboys have lost seven of their last eight against the Cardinals.
The Cowboys have gone over the total in their last five games, and they've gone over 40 points in all three home games this year. They're at home tonight and play the Cardinals, who have lost their last five games by four points or less and have gone over the total in their last three games. So you know what that means for tonight? This game goes over thanks in part to the Cowboys 31st-ranked defense that allows 404 yards per game, and they allow 31 points per game, which also ranks 31st. On offense, the Cowboys average 30.8 points a game, which ranks second in the NFL. Over is the play.