Drake Maye led all quarterbacks, taking 62 sacks on the year, regular season and postseason combined. And now we’ve got a sack-hungry Seattle defense that is starving to get a taste of Maye. The guy who has my immediate attention is DeMarcus Lawrence. The Seahawks have played playoff teams in their last five games, and Lawrence had a sack in three of his last four starts. I'm feeling pretty good about Lawrence getting at least a half-sack with Maye as the starting quarterback.
Seattle wants to be conservative but also show some new moves with some new runners, including Rashid Shaheed. In their last game against the Rams, they tried one run, and he got 0 yards, but in his first playoff game, he had two attempts for 27 yards. Zach Charbonnet played that game, and he is out with an injury. They can only run Kenneth Walker so much before running out of options, and using the dynamite explosiveness of Shaheed could be the secret weapon. That’s what makes him so valuable. Use him. Get him involved in the gameplan. He's a game changer. He had 9 carries for 69 yards in the regular season and 3 for 27 yards in the two postseason games.
I'm waiting on a Super Bowl prediction, but I think I know where I'm going, and I think I know where Kenneth Walker is going. Without Zach Charbonnet, now, Walker is going to carry the ball at least 20 times in this game, get over 125 yards rushing and receiving combined, and at least one TD scored, which sets me up for quite a few props. The Seahawks have won 9 straight games, and in the last three, Walker has gotten over 111 yards in all three. Walker has been on it in four of his last five games, and the last five games were all playoff teams. Walker over 98.5 rushing and receiving yards.
The Seahawks and Patriots were the top teams in each conference, with each only losing three games, and each covering 14 games on the season. The Patriots went 9-0 in away games, and the Seahawks went 8-1 in road games. Seattle won nine games in a row, with the last five games being against playoff teams and covering the last four. Drake Maye has looked shaky over the last few weeks, as has his offensive line. The Seahawks were No. 1 in the NFL against the rush number, 6th in total yards allowed (293.4), and No. 1 in total points (17.1) allowed. The real betting hasn't begun. I think this line moves through 5 and 5.5 quickly and closes 6.
The Seahawks defense doesn't get talked about as much as the offense, but this defense was No. 1 in the NFL with 3.8 yards per rush allowed and No. 1 in points allowed at 17.1. We’ve got two QBs who are first-time Super Bowl starters and two defensive coaches who are first-time Super Bowl leaders. This is one Super Bowl that I don't think either offense has the success that we usually think of, particularly Drake Maye and the Patriots' offense. The Seahawks' defense keeps this game under. I think a score like 27-16 sounds appropriate.
It's a battle for the Big Sky bottom with Northern Arizona visiting Idaho State tonight. Northern Arizona is 8-15, including 0-9 in road games. However, they've covered 11 games. Idaho State is 10-13 and 6-3 at home, but has lost its last five games, the last four coming on the road. The two teams met last month in Flagstaff, with Idaho State winning 81-79 but failing to cover the -4.5 spread. I made Idaho State a 2-point favorite, and it came -8 and settled at -7. Shooting is not a problem for Northern Arizona as they hit 47.1% from the field and 37.9% from three-point range. I took the points with Northern Arizona.
We’ve got a Patriot League matchup with first-place Navy traveling to Lafayette. Navy is 9-1 in conference play and 17-6 overall, riding a five-game win streak, and has covered its last four. Lafayette has lost five of their last eight and is 3-5 ATS in their last eight. Navy plays a solid defense, allowing opponents to shoot 40.4% while also having a good shot selection, hitting 47.1% from the field on offense. I made this game Navy -11, and it came -4.5 and settled at -3.5. Navy to cover.
We have a Missouri Valley Conference clash: Valparaiso (11-11) visits Bradley (15-8). Valparaiso has covered 15 of its 21 lined games, and Bradley has covered only 8 of its 22 lined games. Valparaiso has only won twice on the road, but they're currently on a cover streak of five games in a row, losing twice to first-place Belmont over that span. Bradley has won two of their last four games and has only covered once in their last five. Bradley averages a 78-73 score on the season. Valparaiso has covered two of the last three meetings, while Bradley has won nine games in a row. Valparaiso to win.
Dillon Brooks is having a career year with Phoenix, scoring 21 points per game and shooting a career best 44.5%. His career has been rebooted and rejuvenated with the best ATS team in the NBA. While Devin Booker is injured, Brooks has scored 26 or more in his last three games and last night scored 40 points. Phoenix is playing a slow-down game, staying under the total in their last four and having Brooks take the most shots without Booker. I don't see the Suns winning tonight, but I do see Brooks getting over 24 points.
Horizon League matchup here: Wright State (13-8) is in first place and plays at Milwaukee (9-13). I've got the biggest disparity of the day with this game on the spread: I made Wright State -9, and it opened -2 and settled at -3. What I like about Wright State is that they shoot 49.4% from the field, and there aren't many teams that defend worse than Milwaukee, allowing 47.6% shooting. Wright State also shoots 36.3% from 3-point range, and they average 80.8 points per game. Wright State has won eight of its last nine games and has gone over the total in its last five. Milwaukee has lost seven of its last nine games, covering only twice in its last eight.
Big East matchup here with Providence (9-12) playing at Villanova (15-5). Villanova only scores 77.4 points a game, but they're going to be hard-pressed not to score on Providence, which allows 86.1 points a game while scoring 88.8 a game. The Friars have lost six out of their last seven games in Big East play, with their only win coming against Creighton, but they've also gone over six of their last seven games. They're 15-6 to the over this season. I'm looking at for a shootout tonight with Providence playing well and controlling the pace. The over is the play.
Michael Porter is playing in Denver tonight against the team that drafted him, and he started for when they won the NBA Championship. It's going to be a bittersweet moment for Porter, and I think he excels and maybe even leads the Nets to a win. He's averaged 24 points in 18 road games and averages 25.2 points per game this season. The Nets beat the Nuggets in Brooklyn 127-115 on January 4th. Michael Porter had 27 points in that game. Returning home where it all started, I say he gets over 30.
We've got an Atlantic 10 matchup with Saint Joseph's at 12-8 visiting Loyola-Chicago, who's 5-16 and dead last in the conference at 1-7. Saint Joseph’s might be playing their best ball of the season right now, covering in five straight games with their only loss coming at VCU as 14.5-point underdogs. Loyola has lost seven straight, covering twice over that span, and averages a 67-77 score overall. Saint Joseph's with the cover.
Coach Fred Hoiberg has his Nebraska Cornhuskers 20-0 on the season, and his team rolls into Ann Arbor as double-digit underdogs like every Michigan opponent has been for the last 2 months since they got +2.5 and beat Gonzaga by 40. But coach Dusty May's Wolverines have hit a lull over their last six games, as they haven't covered, and they lost at home to Wisconsin 17 days ago. They don’t look as intimidating. Nebraska has covered five of its last six games, and I think they will be ready for their toughest test of the season. Nebraska is allowing only 64.9 points per game during Big Ten play. Nebraska has won two of the last three meetings with Michigan. I'm on Nebraska.
Arizona (20-0) is ranked No. 1 in the nation and travels to Provo to face No. 13 BYU (17-2) for a Monday night Big 12 clash. They met twice last season, with Arizona winning the first meeting at Provo and BYU returning the favor and winning at Arizona. Both games went over the total. The last four meetings have gone over the total, and I'm expecting this game to also get over the total. Arizona has gone over only 11 out of 20 games because its defense dominates with 39% shooting allowed. But BYU shoots 49% from the field while Arizona shoots 51.6%. Both have good shot selection. Arizona scores 89.8 points per game; BYU scores 86.8 per game. Over.