Micah's Picks (2 Live)
The main story of this game between Miami and Texas A&M is who has the home-field advantage, and that's Texas A&M. This is the second year of the playoff format, and the first year we saw the home teams dominate. The collegiate home crowd with the national championship at stake, that's a big deal. Who's going to turn the ball over, and I'm betting it'll be Miami with quarterback Carson Beck on the road. The two losses this year that Miami had he threw four interceptions against Louisville and two interceptions at SMU. If they fail, it will be from turnovers and pressure from the best pass rush in the nation. Texas A&M to cover.
I've changed my opinion on Alabama for this game, and I'm siding with Oklahoma almost entirely because they're at home. In this playoff round last year, all of the home teams had a huge edge that carried them to victory. I think Norman, Oklahoma, has the edge that Alabama on the road can't match. I've been watching Alabama since October 25, which was a game at Columbia against South Carolina, who came to play as a 12.5 point underdog. Alabama won 29-22, but they didn't cover. They looked sluggish against LSU, and then Oklahoma came to Tuscaloosa and laid down some defense, winning 23-21. Alabama will struggle to run the ball. The Oklahoma defense and the crowd at Norman, Oklahoma, lead the Sooners.
The Rams have won four out of the last five meetings with the Seahawks, including this year's 21-19 win, where the Seahawks outgained the Rams 414 to 249. Both teams come in with 11-3 and 10-4 ATS records. Between RB's Blake Corum and Kyren Williams, the Rams should have a bigger impact on the ground when they met the first time. The Seahawks have won four games in a row, and eight of their last nine, but their last four wins since losing to the Rams were against the Colts quarterbacked by Grandpa Rivers, the Falcons, the Vikings, and the Titans. Sam Darnold has looked his worst of the season, throwing 6 touchdowns and 6 picks in his last six games. Rams to win.
UC San Diego, from the Big West, is 9-1 so far this season, and they're at Loyola Marymount, from the WCC, at 7-3. What I like most about San Diego is that they are sharpshooters with tremendous accuracy, shooting 50.4% from the field and 40.2% from three-point range, which is the fourth best in the nation. They score 84 points a game and allow 71. Their only loss on the year was by six at Nevada, and their only non-cover on the season was at Long Beach State, where they won by six, and the spread was eight. San Diego is looking like a serious candidate to make the NCAA tournament again. San Diego to cover.
It's expected to be 17° in Pittsburgh tonight with winds blowing at 8 mph and no chance of precipitation, which means the Dolphins are in trouble as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 0-5 when the temperature is below 40°. Both teams are hanging on for their playoff lives as the Steelers are in first in the AFC North at 7-6 and the Dolphins are 6-7. But the Dolphins have gotten hot, winning their last four and five of six. Pittsburgh comes off a win at Baltimore, where Aaron Rodgers had his best day of the season while having a fractured left wrist. I'm going against the Dolphins, who beat Washington, New Orleans, and New York. That's a trio of bad football teams. Steelers to cover.
The early line opened with the Cowboys as -7.5-point favorites over the Vikings 12 days ago, and now, with 2 hours until kickoff, some places in Las Vegas have the Cowboys -4.5 with a total of 47.5. The Vikings have lost four of their last five but won their last game, 31-0, against Washington. The Cowboys just had a three-game win streak snapped by Detroit. The Cowboys are 4-1-1 at home this year. The Cowboys have also beaten the Vikings in the last three meetings. The Cowboys at home get the cover.
The Panthers have won six out of their last nine games to move to 7-6 on the season and first place in the NFC South. They just beat the Rams, 31-28, and had a week off to prepare for the Saints, who are feeling we're excited about themselves after their 24-20 win over the Buccaneers. The Saints also beat the Panthers on November 9th with Tyler Shough. Activate the revenge mode. The Panthers have also beaten the Packers this year. The Panthers got to put the Saints away early and send a message to themselves. Panthers to cover.
The Texans have a five-game winning streak going as they're hot at the right time, and the Cardinals have lost five straight, which is why we have a -9.5 point spread in this game. The win streak is led by their No. 1-ranked defense that allows only 266 yards per game. They're No. 3 against the run and No. 3 against the pass. The Cardinals have been held together by Band-Aids all season, and everyone, including the fans, wants the 3-10 season to end. Just think when Houston starts getting their offense together, because they've been very mediocre at best. This might be the week. Texans to cover.
The Falcons and Buccaneers looked to be vying for a playoff spot to start the season, but over the last 7 weeks, both have been awful. Welcome to Thursday night's Ugly Bowl on Amazon Sports. The Falcons have lost seven of their last eight, with their only win coming against the Saints. The Buccaneers have lost five of their last seven and haven't covered a spread in their last five games. The Falcons' defense was number one at one point in the season, and now they're 14th. The Falcons are also third in sacks, something they've maintained while losing games. The bottom line to me is that the Buccaneers shouldn't be giving anybody more than five points. I'm on the Falcons to get the cover.
Iowa from the Big Ten is 8-1, and Iowa State from the Big 12 is 9-0, and both teams have covered seven of nine games. After beating St. John's by one two weeks ago, Iowa State has gone on a run of beating its next four opponents by 18 points or more. They had their best win in their last game at Purdue, winning 81-58, shooting 58%, and 48% from three. They've beaten Iowa the last 2 years by nine points or more. Iowa State leads the nation in field goal percentage, hitting 54.9% and is No. 3 in three-point shots made at 43.8%. Iowa played its first road game 9 days ago at Michigan State and lost by 19. Iowa State.
Villanova is 7-1 this season, but what I see in their record is a bunch of wins against Pennsylvania schools and losing to their one tough school, BYU. They're facing No. 2 Michigan, which is 8-0 and have won five of the games by 30 points. They won by 40 points in the last two, including a win over Gonzaga, which was favored by 2.5 points. Dusty May has his team ready for battle, and they're averaging 94 points a game and shooting 52.8%. Their best attribute, though, is how the whole team has bought into defense, allowing only 34.6% shooting. Villanova doesn't have Jay Wright anymore, or even Kyle Neptune, who's been replaced this season by Kevin Willard as head coach.
Belmont comes in first in the Missouri Valley at 8-1, and they play at Middle Tennessee from Conference USA, who is 5-3 on the season. I thought we'd be looking at a six-point spread, but it's two or less, and it's a must-play for me today. Belmont has won the last two meetings. The highlights for Belmont are that they shoot 51.5% from the field, and they defend well, holding opponents to 36% which ranks eighth in the nation. Belmont to win.
No. 1 Ohio State is playing No. 2 Indiana in the Big Ten Championship, with both teams 12-0. It's never happened before in the Big Ten. My take is that the Buckeye defense has been taken to unparalleled heights with Matt Patricia running his unique NFL style schemes, which made Ohio State the No. 1 defense, allowing only 203 yards per game and 7.8 points per game. The Buckeyes are the highest-rated team in college football, and yet the point spread never catches up to them. They're 10-1-1 against the spread on the year. Never seen that before. The number is still chasing them, and this week we get to lay less than four points? Yeah, I'm on the Buckeyes.