Seth Lugo has to be shaking in his boots at the thought of facing Junior Caminero again. He just faced him last week in his last start, and Caminero had a career day, going 3 for 5 with 6 RBIs and 3 home runs. Caminero is the hottest player in baseball. Over the last 12 days, he's 10 of 19 with 8 home runs, 20 RBIs, and a .413 average. He's on fire and has hit a home run in his last five games. There's a good shot he hits another one today.
Ketel Marte is at home tonight against the Giants with Landen Roupp pitching. Marte is on a streak of hitting a home run in three straight games and four of his last five games. What alerted me to Marte tonight is what he did in his two games against Roupp last month. The Diamondbacks have won all seven games against the Giants this year, and the matchup with Marte versus Roupp didn't go well for the right-hander. In the games that Roupp pitched, Marte was 5 for 10 with a double, a home run, and six RBIs. I think he's going to hit another one against Roupp tonight. Marte +425 to hit a home run.
The Yankees have lost their last three at Boston, and the Red Sox go for the four-game sweep tonight. The Yankees have now lost six of their last eight games. But let's analyze who the real Red Sox have been all season. Boston is 35-46 on the season, and even with the three-game win streak over the Yankees at home, they're still only 15-25 at Fenway Park. Carlos Rodon has been very good. He's been steady. He's a slump buster. The Yankees have won his last five starts, and they've also won his last two starts against the Red Sox. Yankees to stop the bleeding and win the final game of this series.
Look at the straddle in the Arizona-Tampa Bay game Sunday that has a price of -184 on the Rays at home, and the run line is +125. There's actually value in taking the favorite on the run-line in this spot. Tampa Bay has covered the run line the last two nights against Arizona, and they've won the last four meetings against the Diamondbacks and nine of their last 10. Now we have one of the most consistent starters in the league with Drew Rasmussen, against Merrill Kelly, who the Diamondbacks have lost his last five starts with him posting a 6.51 ERA. Junior Caminaro has hit five home runs in his last three games for Tampa. Rays to win.
We've got a unique situation in today's baseball game between the Rockies and Twins where both teams average over 10 runs per game. They went over the total yesterday with the Twins 9-8 victory, only after the Rockies allowed the Twins to go up 7-0 to begin the 8th. The Twins have been going over better than anybody as they're the No. 1 over team in baseball, hitting 62.8% of their games at 49-29-5. Over is the play.
The Cubs have won the last six meetings against the Mets, including the first three of the current series, which they finish off tonight. The Cubs have left-hander Matthew Boyd on the mound going against Freddy Peralta, who has something to prove after he gave up 10 runs in 2.2 innings to the Phillies in his last start. The Cubs are on one of their grooves like they've been on several times this year, winning three straight and five of six. Their last six games have all gone over the total. They scored 29 runs in three games against the Mets this week. Cubs win and sweep the series.
The Mariners have the lowest batting average over the last 15 days of play, hitting .199, the only team batting below .200. But I think that's going to change tonight when they face Mitch Keller and the Pirates. Keller has gone over the total in his last four starts, and he's allowed 23 runs combined. Seattle starter George Kirby has allowed three runs or more in his last six starts, with the Mariners only winning one of those games. He's also gone over the total in five of those six starts. This game has a perfect setting to get over the total.
The Phillies have won eight of Zack Wheeler's 10 starts, with only 14 earned runs allowed in his 62 innings pitched. He's 6-1 with the 2.01 ERA, and the Phillies try to win the series against the Mets tonight after exploding for 15 runs Saturday. The Mets have lost three of David Peterson's last four starts, and in his last two starts, he allowed nine combined runs. The Mets are currently sitting in last place at 35-42, 14.5 games out of first place. Phillies win.
Ranger Suarez has pitched very well for the Red Sox this year, but they've only won six of his 13 starts. The good news about him is that he's allowed only four home runs in 70 innings pitched, striking out 70 and posting an ERA of 3.21. He should have more wins with those types of figures, but he pitches for the Red Sox, who are 29-43 this season and only average 3.92 runs per game. I think Suarez is a nice complement to Bryce Miller in keeping this game under the total, with his 1.54 ERA and only six runs allowed in 35 innings. Under is the play.
The Reds are the third-best over team in baseball at 42-27-1, going 60.9% over. But most of that lately is because of the other team scoring, as the Reds have only 34 RBIs for the month, which is the lowest in baseball. Rookie right-hander Chase Burns is pitching tonight, and it should be a low-scoring game by the Mets. I'm looking at a 4-2 score with the game to be decided when Burns leaves the game. Under is the play.
Let's take a look at betting against the Reds today, who are second-to-last in batting average for the month and dead last in RBIs for the month. The Mets come off winning a series against the Braves, winning three of their past four and 10 of their last 16. The Reds have lost their past five series, including over the weekend to the sluggish Diamondbacks, where they only scored seven runs in the three-game series. Right-hander Chase Burns has been solid for the Reds, going 7-1 with a 2.14 ERA, but the Mets can take advantage when he leaves the game, in an expected low-scoring game. The Mets at plus money is the play.
Victor Wembanyama is going to have a career game tonight and show that the Spurs are still in the series by scoring 35 points or more. He's 7’4” and unstoppable around the rim, and I think he's going to do a little more of that and less 3-point shooting as he did in Game 4 when the Spurs had a major collapse. We know he can do it because he had 41 against OKC in Game 1 of the West Finals. This will be a statement game for Wemby.
The Knicks are up 3-1 in the NBA Finals, but it could easily be the other way around. In all four games, the Spurs blew big leads, and there's never been a bigger lead blown in the NBA Finals than in Game 4 by the Spurs. They led by 29 points and lost. They scored 76 points in the first half but only 30 in the second half. No driving the basket, no post play, and Mitch Johnson was nowhere to be found as head coach. The Knicks are now in the heads of the Spurs. Doubt lingers. But the remedy is simple. Quit trying to play like the Celtics and get Victor Wembanyama inside the paint. He's 7’4” and unstoppable. Spurs at home.
The Spurs should be up 3-0 over the Knicks if it weren't for two poorly played final minutes of Games 1 and 2 by the Spurs. Knicks lead 2-1. But I think the Young Guns learned a great lesson from the two losses. They finished strong in the 4th quarter in Game 3 and just played their game. No running the clock or playing games by holding the ball. They finished the game strong, and that's a huge lesson learned for a young team. I think the best team in the NBA, with the highest rating, proved that to be true in Game 3. Spurs win Game 4.
Las Vegas got a taste of what A's baseball can be last night when the Brewers won a thrilling 12-inning game 15-14 with so many twists and turns in the plot that it was more like a classic mystery than a baseball game. The wind isn't blowing out as much today as yesterday, but it's still coming at 12 mph out to right-center field at 94° at game time, and no chance of rain. The ballpark will create the runs. Just the over.