The Rockies have lost the last three starts by left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has allowed 17 combined runs in the losses. He also allowed six home runs, and all three losses went over the total. What I'm most excited about is the weather in Denver, which is expected to be 81° with winds at 9 mph blowing out to left field and a 10% chance of precipitation. Arizona should also help out with the scoring, as Merrill Kelly has allowed 20 runs over his last four starts, losing three of them. Just the over in Friday night's game.
The No. 1-seeded Pistons lost a critical Game 5 at home against the Cavaliers, and now they're on the brink of elimination in Game 6 at Cleveland. Star player Cade Cunningham did his job with 39 points off 13-of-27 shooting and 6-of-10 from 3-point range, but the problem is that nobody else helped him as the team shot under 40% without Cunningham’s stats. And that's where James Harden's veteran savvy came into play as he went to the free-throw line 14 times and scored 30 points in the game. It was a balanced attack, and the Cavs shot 40% from 3-point range and won despite having 16 turnovers. Cavs close it out tonight, making up for their failure as the No. 1 seed last year.
2026 has started rough for the Giants, who are 18-25 and one game out of last place in the NL West, but when they play their heated rival, the Dodgers, their records are thrown out the window. The Giants have won four out of six against the Dodgers this year, and they look to win the four-game series with a win tonight. The Giants have played well for the last week, winning four of their last six against the Pirates and Dodgers. Landen Roupp starts for the Giants, and he beat the Dodgers 3-1 this season on April 21. The Dodgers have lost three of Emmet Sheehan's last four starts, and they also lost the last time he faced the Giants, 3-1. Giants to win.
The Spurs shot better (48%) than the Timberwolves in Game 4, had fewer turnovers, and also had an 8-point lead in the 4th quarter, but Minnesota won 114-109. Victor Wembanyama was called for a Flagrant 2 technical foul in the second quarter and finished the game with 4 points. Minnesota's frenzied swarming defense created the situation that Wembanyama fell for. That's what this Timberwolves team does, and they've been doing it for quite a while against the Spurs, dating back to 2024. Minnesota won five straight games until the Spurs won in January, and now they're tied 2-2 in the second round. The Spurs might play with the same intensity as Game 2, but I think Minnesota plays a tight game like Game 4. Timberwolves.
We've got a nice pitching matchup today with Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays facing Drew Rasmussen of the Rays. They just met six days ago in Tampa Bay, and the Rays won 4-3, but the game went over the total of 6.5. Today the total is 7, and it's still an under play. The Rays have gone under in 12 of their last 14 games. Gausman has gone over the total of his last five starts, but I still think this one stays under as well. Just the under.
The Yankees have won the last nine meetings with the Orioles, including a sweep last week when the Yankees won by five runs or more in every game. That spells good news if looking to bet the run line in this series, but the split isn't as big as preferred, seeing how they're -150 to win by one and only +110 to win by two or more. The Orioles have the 27th-ranked pitching staff, posting a 4.74 ERA, and they allow 5.4 runs a game. It's 63° with no chance of rain in Baltimore, with the wind swirling and will be blowing out the right field by 8:00 (ET). This looks like a good Yankees and over scenario.
The Reds have lost eight games in a row, the first seven on the road, and then last night losing 10-0 at home to the Astros. Chase Burns has been tasked with halting the slump, even though the Reds have lost three of his last five starts. The Astros have won all four starts by Spencer Arrighetti, with him allowing only five runs and one home run total. The Astros have won four of their last six games, and it's hard for me to believe that a team that has lost eight in a row would be favored by so much over one of the Astros' best starters. I'll take the Astros again.
The last time the Pirates were in San Francisco, they swept the Giants three straight, and they come in today winning five of their last six games. The Giants have won once in their last nine games, in which they've averaged only two runs per game. In the Giants last 12 games, they've hit only nine home runs, second to last to the Rangers seven homers. The Giants have lost three of Robbie Ray's last four starts where they scored only one combined run in the three losses. Pirates to win.
The Rays have won their last seven games, and they've also won 13 of their last 14 games. They beat the Red Sox yesterday, 8-4, to kick off a four-game series. Jesse Scholtens gets his second start of the year after giving up five runs to the Reds on April 20th. Red Sox lefty Connelly Early gave up five runs in a loss to the Astros in his last start, and he faced the Rays in September, losing 7-3. The Red Sox are fresh off a sweep at Detroit but have lost five of their last nine games. Rays keep winning, and it’s likely a low-scoring game.
I'm on the Astros today despite their losing five straight games when Mike Burrows starts. Lefty Nick Lodolo makes his first start of the season after he nursed a blister on his left index finger. The Astros have won three of their last five, with the two losses coming at home against the Dodgers. The Reds have dropped their last seven games and fallen into last place in the NL Central, despite a 20-18 record. Four of the Reds last five losses have been by one run. They lost an entire seven-game road trip, and I think the losing continues at home. Astros to win.
Every team in the NL Central has a winning record, and the leader of the division is the Cubs, who just swept the Diamondbacks over the weekend. The Diamondbacks have now lost four straight games and have fallen one game below .500. We're at that junction already speculating if Arizona is a .500 team this year, while I have high hopes for the Pirates to make the postseason. Bubba Chandler starts for the Pirates on Tuesday, and he's been shelled in his last two games, allowing nine runs total with three home runs allowed. He'll be more effective on Tuesday. Arizona has won Eduardo Rodriguez's last four starts, but he allowed 10 runs in his last three. Pirates continue their winning.
Three of the last four meetings between the Pistons and Cavaliers have stayed under the total, but one was as high as 239.5 and ended 114-110. We're looking at Game 1 set at 216.5. At the last meeting on March 3, the total was 228.5, and it was 113-109. In the regular season, that game stays under, but in the postseason, that game goes over. I like the Cavs to take the Pistons to the very end. I like the Cavs to run their normal game, and what you get is this Game 1 over.
The Rays have won four games in a row, and they have also won 10 of their last 11 games. They’re streaking, and I think I'm buying what they're selling on Tuesday. They've also stayed under the total nine games in a row. The Blue Jays have gone over Kevin Gausman's last four starts while winning three of them. The Rays have also won three of Drew Rasmussen's last four starts, and the Rays have gone over four of his last five starts. It might be time to lay off the total trend, but I think the Rays deserve another wager on Tuesday.
Logan Gilbert has lost four of his seven starts this year, but he’s a huge favorite against the Braves, who have baseball's best record at 25-10. The Mariners are 16-19 and only 10-10 at home. If you bet the Braves all season, your profit margin is plus-796, but if you bet the Mariners, you're minus-804. The Braves have been doing it with their hitting (No. 1 in hitting at .276), but their pitching has been the main source of their success as they are No. 2 in baseball with a 3.19 ERA. The Braves have won both of JR Ritchie's starts this year. Braves at plus money is a play.
The 76ers carry some serious momentum into the playoffs, having won their last three games against the Celtics and three of four at Boston. The reason I like the Sixers in this series is that they're healthy and they hung tough with the Knicks this season, winning both games in New York. They lost by three in Philadelphia on January 24th and lost on February 11th when Paul George and Joel Embiid did not play. The Knicks also won three straight against the Hawks, but I think a healthy Embiid tilts the scales for the Sixers in this series, and it starts by winning game one. This is the highest spread in all their meetings this season. Sixers plus the points.