Diamondbacks’ Brandon Pfaadt has been used as both a reliever and a starter this year, but since getting back into the starting lineup in late June, is 5-0 in six starts with a 1.85 ERA and 2.86 FIP. The Diamondbacks have played to the under in 55.7% of their games this season, tied with the Phillies for the second-highest rate in baseball (only the Cardinals have a higher rate). That includes six of the past nine games and 15 of 25 since July 4. Meanwhile, the Padres send Michael King to the mound. King went at least 5 innings in each of his five July starts, allowing 2 ER or less in four of them.

DraftKings. Michael King is under this line in 15/22 starts for the Padres this season. While the Diamondbacks have been moderately hot of late, they only have two hitters in the lineup today with an expected batting average over .240 versus right handed pitchers this season. King has had success against his division rival in the past, and the Diamondbacks are not a good changeup hitting team – King’s primary and best pitch.

The Diamondbacks went into the final weekend of the last two seasons alive for the playoffs, and in both seasons the Padres eliminated them. In 2024, the Diamondbacks were the highest-scoring team in baseball, and the Padres took them out in Arizona; last year they were taken out on the last weekend in San Diego. So far this year, they're 3-3 against the Padres, who are heating up of late, having won eight of their last nine games, and sit only one game behind the Diamondbacks. But Arizona has a new and improved Brandon Pfaadt, who beat the Padres 8-0 on July 6th. Arizona has won his first six starts since a brief stay in the minors. Arizona gets the win.