West Ham desperately need a win. Three points would give them a chance to stave off relegation, and while Leeds have been strong overall, they have been living dangerously in recent matches. They conceded over 3.0 xG to Brighton and were lucky those chances were not punished. In a do-or-die spot, West Ham should be the side capable of capitalizing. At a comfortable price, I’m backing the home team.
The final matchday of the season should be a fun one for Liverpool. They are 3-2-0 in their last five final home Premier League matches, and this could also be the sendoff for Mohamed Salah. I expect Liverpool to bring plenty of energy at Anfield against a Brentford side that has struggled away from home and has been leaky at the back. With the crowd behind them and plenty of attacking motivation, this feels like a spot where Liverpool can close the season with a strong performance.
Manchester City lost the Premier League last week, and Aston Villa won the Europa League midweek. So why am I laying City -1.5? For starters, this is Pep Guardiola’s last match in charge, and City are at the Etihad, where they’ve been dominant all season. They have lost just once at home and usually win by margin. Villa may also rotate. Even if they don’t, those players were partying in Istanbul midweek, then returned for a trophy parade. There’s no way they have been training, and it’s hard to imagine they have the motivation. This feels like a City smash spot. I’ll lay the -1.5.
Neither Aston Villa nor Liverpool have mathematically locked up Champions League qualification. Bournemouth are nipping at their heels, and Villa cannot afford to finish their final home match of the season without a point. It also helps that Villa are unbeaten in their last six final home matches of the season, which gives me more confidence in the double chance bet. Liverpool are dealing with fitness issues as well, especially in attack. The line is juiced, but I struggle to see Villa losing this match.
I’m not exactly sure who we think this West Ham team is. They are getting a ton of respect in the market because it’s a “must-win” game. Well, newsflash, it’s a must-win game for Arsenal, too. West Ham are fighting to stay up, while Arsenal are fighting for a title. At this price, I’d take Arsenal over West Ham a million times on Sunday. Let’s not forget, this is the same West Ham side that basically quit in the 70th minute last week. That team has shown no spine, and this is a spot where Arsenal can exploit it.
This could turn into a stalemate, but neither team has shown much ability to defend. Chelsea have conceded 13 goals across their last five matches, and Liverpool should view this as a spot where they can take advantage. I like Liverpool to win, and if you want a little more on the price, Liverpool and over 2.5 goals makes sense. Personally, I’m keeping it simple and trying to collect on a team facing a Chelsea defense that has been far too easy to break down.
It’s been fun to watch Andoni Iraola get the most out of Bournemouth. It’s unfortunate that he is leaving at the end of the season, but it’s clear he is trying to secure the highest finish in club history before he goes. Sitting sixth, Bournemouth are firmly in a European spot and have been one of the best in-form teams in the league. They are unbeaten in their last 16 matches and now face a Fulham side that has been inconsistent and has lacked quality service in the final third. I’m backing Bournemouth to avoid defeat. If they win, we cash. If it ends in a draw, we get our money back, and I’m perfectly fine with that.
Newcastle stink right now. They have lost five straight, and it feels like Eddie Howe is running out of answers. This turns into a must-win spot for them, but it is hard to trust this team in its current form. Brighton, on the other hand, come into this match beaming with confidence, having won four of their last five. Newcastle have also struggled badly in this matchup, winning just two of their last 17 meetings with Brighton.
Leeds are now six points clear of the drop, but Daniel Farke has made it clear they are not safe yet. They should, and likely will, play on the front foot against a Burnley side that averages just 40% possession away from Turf Moor. Beyond struggling to win the ball, Burnley are conceding at a high rate. They allow 2.47 goals per match away from home, with an xGA of 1.90. They also have trouble creating quality chances in front of goal, taking just 7.94 shots per game.
The new manager bounce for Wolves under Rob Edwards looks to be over. This team has struggled, losing three of their last four and conceding 12 goals in that stretch. At a minimum, I expect Tottenham to score twice, with Wolves finding one as well. Tottenham have had their own defensive issues, likely without Guglielmo Vicario, and Cristian Romero is now out for the season. It may take time for De Zerbi’s system to be fully implemented. Expect some defensive lapses along the way. Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of Tottenham matches and 56% of Wolves’ home matches. This sets up to be an open match.
I’m backing United here. They’re coming off an impressive road win over Chelsea and have been dominant at home. Prior to the 2–1 loss to Leeds, they had won five straight at home, scoring at least two goals in each match. Brentford, meanwhile, haven’t been convincing away from home and are stuck in a stretch of underwhelming performances. Five straight draws might look steady on paper, but there’s not much to hang your hat on. Even in the match against Everton where they scored twice, they were second best throughout. I trust United in this spot, and I like them to get on the board at least twice.
I don’t know if I could feel worse for a team than I do Burnley ahead of this clash with Manchester City. First and foremost, I love Manchester City’s team total over 2.5 goals. This is a side that just beat Arsenal, hung three on Chelsea, and put four past Liverpool. In the reverse fixture, they handled Burnley 5-1. If anything, this City attack looks even sharper now, and they’ve quietly tightened things up defensively. As for Burnley, it’s been rough. They’re conceding 2.03 goals per match with a 1.84 xGA, and they haven’t offered much going forward either. This sets up perfectly for a City side in a title race that knows that it could come down to goal differential.
Listen, I know Chelsea aren’t going to go six matches across the Champions League and Premier League without scoring. I’m betting on goals in this clash, no doubt about it, but I’d be insane not to take Brighton draw no bet given Chelsea’s current form. They’ve now lost six straight across those competitions without scoring a single goal. And yes, I’m not counting the FA Cup. Brighton, on the other hand, have won five of their last seven, with their only blemishes being a loss to Arsenal and a draw with Tottenham. They look like the better side right now, and I expect them to walk away with at least a point.
It looks like the new-manager bounce is over for Rob Edwards and Wolves. They’ve now lost two of their last three and have conceded nine goals in the process. They’ve allowed more than 1.90 xGA in all three matches and even made West Ham, a team that has struggled to create, look like prime Barcelona. Leeds are playing with passion and energy, as evidenced by their 2-1 win over Manchester United. I’d hate to get in front of that train right now. I think Leeds win this one 2-0 or 3-1.
After Arsenal’s loss to Bournemouth, the door is wide open for Manchester City. They sit nine points back, but with two games in hand and a massive stretch ahead. Chelsea today, Arsenal on Sunday. The six-pointer in two weeks' time could be the biggest match of the season if they get three today. It’s been a rough run for Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea. Outside of a 7-0 cup win over Port Vale, they had dropped four straight by a combined 11-3 scoreline. City haven’t been the most reliable away from home, but they have won two of their last three. This is a must-win spot with the title race hanging in the balance. Given the circumstances, I absolutely must back Manchester City to win today.