It feels like Manchester United's defense has been optional this season. They had a 5-2 win over Ipswich and a wild 2-2 draw with Everton, and this attack is loaded with talent: Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko, Bryan Mbeumo and Bruno Fernandes. On the other side, Erling Haaland still exists. City have also been involved in plenty of high-scoring matches, including five goals against Crystal Palace and three against Bournemouth. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 is worth a look, but Over 3 is perfectly fine.

Honestly, I think Liverpool -1.25 is the right side here. They’ve started to settle in nicely, beating Atletico Madrid 2-1 in the Champions League after falling behind early, and handling Ipswich 2-0 in the match before that. I still don’t completely trust Liverpool defensively, but this Fulham side has been one of the Premier League’s worst to start the season. They’re one of just two clubs without a point and have now lost three straight opening matches for only the third time in club history. You can also start to see Iraola’s tactics taking shape for Liverpool. At -1.25, I’m comfortable they win this match, and there’s a chance they win by two.

There are no such things as easy overs in footy, but this feels like an over that’s mandatory to take. Two really poor defenses are facing off against each other. Crystal Palace and Ipswich have each conceded eight goals, averaging 2.68 goals allowed per match. Palace has conceded at least two goals in nine straight Premier League matches dating back to last season, and it feels like this defense still has a long way to go. Losing Daniel Munoz after already losing Maxence Lacroix certainly doesn’t help. Ipswich is a feisty team, and I think they can get theirs here. The advanced numbers back it up, too, with both teams conceding at least 2.0 xG per match.

If you want to back Aston Villa at home given their incredible record there, I totally understand. But this doesn’t feel like the same Villa side we’ve seen in recent years. They’re missing key pieces through the middle of the pitch, in defense and with Emi Martínez in net. Villa have lacked their usual identity and defensive backbone, and I think Arsenal can take advantage. They should be able to suffocate Villa with possession, pick them apart and make this a difficult 90 minutes for the home side. I like Arsenal -1 because it gives us some protection. If they win by one, we get our money back. If they win by two or more, we cash.

Chelsea and Brighton were two of the highest BTTS in the Premier League last season. Brighton saw BTTS hit in 55% of its matches, while Chelsea was at 63%. Chelsea also kept just five clean sheets in 19 home matches, and Brighton had the same number away from home. Chelsea’s new-look attack has plenty of firepower, and I think the Blues score at least twice. Chelsea over 1.5 team goals at -140 is playable, but I have a hard time trusting this defense to keep Brighton out of the back of the net. BTTS and over 2.5 is fantastic, but I’m keeping it simple with over 2.5 goals. The price is a little juiced, so I’m reducing my stake.

I haven’t been impressed with Nottingham Forest at all. I’m a big fan of Oliver Glasner, but this team needs to figure things out quickly. I’m not convinced his style fits the current squad, especially with Elliot Anderson gone. Forest desperately needs more control in midfield. You can criticize Liverpool’s opening performance, but fighting back to earn a draw at Newcastle impressed me. Saint James’ Park is one of the tougher places to get a result, and Andoni Iraola continues to prove he’s one of the better managers in the league. I like Liverpool on the handicap here. If they win, we cash. If they only win by one, we get our money back. I’ll gladly take that protection.

There are still some good moneyline prices available on Manchester City, but I don’t mind laying the -1 either. Crystal Palace has too much uncertainty right now, with several players potentially on the way out. Most importantly, if Ismaila Sarr is sold, it would be another major blow to an attack that has already lost plenty of talent. Manchester City is under new management, but this is still one of the most talented and expensive squads in the Premier League. They have the best striker in the world in Erling Haaland and plenty of experience winning away from home. Palace could struggle to keep up if City gets rolling.

I’m not sure what a fair price on Chelsea against Fulham should be, but I know it should be much higher than -120. Fulham lost their manager and didn’t reload the way I expected, so this could be a difficult season for them. Chelsea are on the opposite end of the spectrum. The talent is obvious, especially in attack, but the biggest addition could be Alonso. He’s a proven winner and an excellent tactician who could finally push this group over the hump. I have Chelsea challenging for the Premier League title this season, and that makes taking care of business in matches like this critical. At -120, I’m willing to back Chelsea for all three points.

I think Tottenham did a really nice job this offseason, adding Sandro Tonali and making some needed adjustments to the roster. Roberto De Zerbi should also be an upgrade on the touchline, and there is enough quality here for Tottenham to take a step forward. On the other side, Brentford can score with the best of them, especially at home. I do think Tottenham get something out of this match, but I have a hard time seeing it stay under three goals. Both teams have plenty of attacking talent, and both can be vulnerable defensively. For me, there’s no need to overthink it. I’m backing Over 2.5 goals and expecting an open match with chances on both ends.

Nottingham Forest lost Elliot Anderson to Manchester City, and there’s no doubt he’ll be difficult to replace. Still, bringing in Oliver Glasner feels like a managerial upgrade, and there is plenty of talent throughout this midfield and attack. Forest are also a completely different team at home. Defensively, they can be vulnerable, but the City Ground remains a difficult place to play. Leeds won just two away matches all of last season while averaging only 1.04 goals per game. I don’t necessarily need Forest to win outright here, either. Getting them on a draw no bet gives us some protection while backing the more talented team in a strong home spot.

I like Arsenal a lot in this match. I would play them to win to nil, but that price is outrageous. I’d much rather sit it out or take Arsenal -2. Under 3 is also a solid option, but I’m not sure Coventry can stay disciplined and compact for 90 minutes. Arsenal made an already dominant midfield even better by adding Bruno Guimarães this offseason, and I also love the addition of Christos Tzolis. He gives them another dangerous, creative winger who should bring more balance to the attack. I think Arsenal control this from start to finish. I have it finishing 2-0 or 3-0, which makes Arsenal -2 my preferred play.

The final matchday of the season should be a fun one for Liverpool. They are 3-2-0 in their last five final home Premier League matches, and this could also be the sendoff for Mohamed Salah. I expect Liverpool to bring plenty of energy at Anfield against a Brentford side that has struggled away from home and has been leaky at the back. With the crowd behind them and plenty of attacking motivation, this feels like a spot where Liverpool can close the season with a strong performance.

Manchester City lost the Premier League last week, and Aston Villa won the Europa League midweek. So why am I laying City -1.5? For starters, this is Pep Guardiola’s last match in charge, and City are at the Etihad, where they’ve been dominant all season. They have lost just once at home and usually win by margin. Villa may also rotate. Even if they don’t, those players were partying in Istanbul midweek, then returned for a trophy parade. There’s no way they have been training, and it’s hard to imagine they have the motivation. This feels like a City smash spot. I’ll lay the -1.5.

West Ham desperately need a win. Three points would give them a chance to stave off relegation, and while Leeds have been strong overall, they have been living dangerously in recent matches. They conceded over 3.0 xG to Brighton and were lucky those chances were not punished. In a do-or-die spot, West Ham should be the side capable of capitalizing. At a comfortable price, I’m backing the home team.

Neither Aston Villa nor Liverpool have mathematically locked up Champions League qualification. Bournemouth are nipping at their heels, and Villa cannot afford to finish their final home match of the season without a point. It also helps that Villa are unbeaten in their last six final home matches of the season, which gives me more confidence in the double chance bet. Liverpool are dealing with fitness issues as well, especially in attack. The line is juiced, but I struggle to see Villa losing this match.