Brad's Picks (1 Live)
The new manager bounce for Wolves under Rob Edwards looks to be over. This team has struggled, losing three of their last four and conceding 12 goals in that stretch. At a minimum, I expect Tottenham to score twice, with Wolves finding one as well. Tottenham have had their own defensive issues, likely without Guglielmo Vicario, and Cristian Romero is now out for the season. It may take time for De Zerbi’s system to be fully implemented. Expect some defensive lapses along the way. Over 2.5 goals has hit in 67% of Tottenham matches and 56% of Wolves’ home matches. This sets up to be an open match.
I don’t know if I could feel worse for a team than I do Burnley ahead of this clash with Manchester City. First and foremost, I love Manchester City’s team total over 2.5 goals. This is a side that just beat Arsenal, hung three on Chelsea, and put four past Liverpool. In the reverse fixture, they handled Burnley 5-1. If anything, this City attack looks even sharper now, and they’ve quietly tightened things up defensively. As for Burnley, it’s been rough. They’re conceding 2.03 goals per match with a 1.84 xGA, and they haven’t offered much going forward either. This sets up perfectly for a City side in a title race that knows that it could come down to goal differential.
Listen, I know Chelsea aren’t going to go six matches across the Champions League and Premier League without scoring. I’m betting on goals in this clash, no doubt about it, but I’d be insane not to take Brighton draw no bet given Chelsea’s current form. They’ve now lost six straight across those competitions without scoring a single goal. And yes, I’m not counting the FA Cup. Brighton, on the other hand, have won five of their last seven, with their only blemishes being a loss to Arsenal and a draw with Tottenham. They look like the better side right now, and I expect them to walk away with at least a point.
It looks like the new-manager bounce is over for Rob Edwards and Wolves. They’ve now lost two of their last three and have conceded nine goals in the process. They’ve allowed more than 1.90 xGA in all three matches and even made West Ham, a team that has struggled to create, look like prime Barcelona. Leeds are playing with passion and energy, as evidenced by their 2-1 win over Manchester United. I’d hate to get in front of that train right now. I think Leeds win this one 2-0 or 3-1.
After Arsenal’s loss to Bournemouth, the door is wide open for Manchester City. They sit nine points back, but with two games in hand and a massive stretch ahead. Chelsea today, Arsenal on Sunday. The six-pointer in two weeks' time could be the biggest match of the season if they get three today. It’s been a rough run for Liam Rosenior’s Chelsea. Outside of a 7-0 cup win over Port Vale, they had dropped four straight by a combined 11-3 scoreline. City haven’t been the most reliable away from home, but they have won two of their last three. This is a must-win spot with the title race hanging in the balance. Given the circumstances, I absolutely must back Manchester City to win today.
Everton dropped the reverse fixture 4-2, with Brentford punishing them for three goals on the counter. This match should set up differently. Everton should be the side sitting deep, staying compact, and looking to hit on the break. They’re one of the hottest teams in the Premier League right now, with three wins in their last four. With a real chance to push for European play, it’s easy to see David Moyes setting this up to at least secure a point. If they win, it’s an added benefit. That makes Everton Draw No Bet at +156 an easy bet.
I like West Ham to get the win, but this Wolves side is playing free under Rob Edwards right now. They’ve been crushing set pieces, and West Ham haven’t been great at defending them. That gives Wolves a real chance to get on the board, maybe even twice. If West Ham are going to win this match, they’ll likely need to score at least two themselves. That gives us a real opportunity to have a winner in this match.