Jon's Past Picks
West Ham are such an interesting club. They are this historic giant club with a whole plethora of support and praise, and right now they're fighting to avoid relegation, sitting 18th on the table. The good thing they have going for them though, is it does look like they're starting to turn things around. After a catastrophic start to their season, they've now avoided defeat in three of their last five matches, and they've also covered the spread in four of their last five. This is a team that was able to take points off Newcastle, Burnley and Bournemouth all in November, and will look to keep things tight against a shaky at best Manchester United side.
Leeds are having a tough time finding their identity since they returned to the Premier League. They are currently sitting 18th on the table, in the relegation zone, just one spot against fellow promoted side Burnley. They keep changing up their playstyles trying to find what works for them, which is good for us when betting on goals! They've switched to a high-line and are pressing regardless of how good their opponents are. They've now hit over 2.5 goals in five matches straight, and score twice against Man City last week. Expecting goals once again for Leeds!
Chelsea will come into this matchup absolutely ecstatic after taking a point off Arsenal earlier this week at Stamford Bridge. They managed a 1-1 draw even after Moises Caicedo was sent off in the 38th minute. That draw, and a 3-0 butt-whooping against Barcelona means Leeds have to welcome Chelsea at a tough time. To make it even tougher, Chelsea are expecting to finally welcome back their best goal-scorer, Cole Palmer. Palmer will be itching to find the scoresheet, and I'm expecting goals, and a victory for The Blues.
I'll be the first one to admit that Wolves looked like a competent team when they played against Aston Villa last week. It's the best they've looked the entire season, and they still, lost the match. Maybe they'll find some motivation in keeping things close against a strong Aston Villa club, but for the time being, they are still last on the table, haven't won a match, and have the worst defense and offense in the league. Forest will be desperate to bounce back after getting smacked by Brighton, and a match against Wolves is the perfect opportunity to do that.
The trademark unbreakable defense that Arsenal had early in this season is showing some serious cracks. While they're still obviously doing wonderful this season, they've now conceded in four matches straight. Gabriel missing in their defense is allowing teams to not win, but score, which was a rarity the first 10 matchdays. Arsenal is now longer playing to win for cagey 1-0 matches, they've having to press for multiple goals. Brentford will know this is a chance to go for points, and attack while the Gunner backline is weakest. I love the over here, and BTTS as well.
Newcastle enter this game off a rare road victory after stomping down Everton 4-1. Newcastle is a club that is known for their home success, but can sometimes struggle to find positive results on the road. One thing we have see from The Magpies recently, is a whole lot of goals. Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 goals has now hit in their last four matches straight across all competitions. Nick Woltemade continues to lead the attack, but players like Malick Thiaw and Harvey Barnes are bolstering the ranks. Spurs defense has been shoddy, and I'm expecting St. James' Park to once again see goals.
These two teams have played each other and incredible five times over the last year and a half. They've had friendlies, EPL matches and the EFL Cup last season. Those five matches have been brutal for Spurs, who lost four times and drew once. Their last four matches at St. James' Park, they've been outscored 14-2. This is a brutal place for anyone to play, and is the type of travel where teams can be mentally defeated before even showing up. Newcastle are in great form and Spurs are starting to flounder a bit. I'm expecting a high-scoring and decisive victory for the hosts.
Bournemouth matches have been an absolute delight and goals have come freely from both ends of the pitch frequently. In fact, Bournemouth have seen over 2.5 goals clear now in seven of their last eight matches when playing at home, and in four matches straight across all competitions. This team plays a wonderful Bundesliga style of footy where attack is the only thing that matters, which is why they've conceded 12 goals over their last four matches. Everton's offense isn't great, but frankly that shouldn't matter. Take BTTS and Over 2.5 goals here to get even better value!
Manchester City are such a frustrating team to bet on right now. They're frustrating, because even though they're having a "poor season" they're still second in the Premier League, even though they've lost a massive four matches. They're still the high-scoring juggernaut they always are, currently leading the league with 27 goals scored, but their defense has something off at the moment. The backline isn't connecting how they need to, and Leeds showed that they are susceptible on the counter attack. Fulham at home are good enough to score against anyone, and will be riding the high of beating Spurs. I expect goals on both ends, and the over to hit.
Manchester City astoundingly after picking up four losses in their opening 13 matches, are still second on the table and are currently five points behind Arsenal. While Pep's boys are having a bit of trouble find some consistency, these are the kind of matches that you can't really afford to lose. Fulham are 13 spots below City on the table. They currently have a mediocre attack and sub-par defense. They did however, just beat Spurs so they'll have some momentum going into this match. To be frank, even with momentum and home-field advantage, City should win by multiple goals. No UCL fixture this weeks means they can put all their focus into picking up a dire three points.
Liverpool, the team that at the beginning of the season were the favorites to win the league, are currently 13th on the Premier League table. They've won just a single of their last seven EPL matches, and just faced an embarrassing 4-1 loss to PSV over the mid week UCL fixture. This is a team that has lost their form entirely. They have no defense, their offense is fighting amongst each other, and every week pundits say "This is the week they bounce back". Eventually we have to accept that that this is just a broken team, and we need to fade them until things get fixed internally. West Ham isn't a strong team, but that just doesn't matter right now.
The start of this season was... not ideal if you're a fan of the Hammers. West Ham started off their first couple months in truly shambolic form. They have recently, started turning on the gas in regards to their offense. They've still conceded in nine matches straight, but they're finally scoring. They had a thrilling 2-2 draw to Bournemouth, a 3-2 win over Burnley and a 3-1 win over Newcastle in their last three. They'll smell blood in the water against a weakened Liverpool side, and will be expected to press for goals in what should be another high scoring affair at London Stadium.
Aston Villa are more than good enough to win this match sweat-free. That's not because they're some unbeatable incredible force, but because their opponents are the easiest fade in the EPL. Wolves have picked up two points, over 12 matches. This is the third worst start to a season in EPL history. They have no offense, and the worst defense in the league. Aston Villa might be tired, but that shouldn't matter, and I expect a routine cleansheet and win for the hosts.
I'm already on Aston Villa spread - so we might as well take the over as well since I think the hosts cover this by themselves. There has not been a more disappointing team in England that Wolves so far this season. They currently have both the worst defense and offense in the league and are averaging over 2 goals conceded per match. Aston Villa have seen the over cash in three matches straight, and showed against Bournemouth earlier this month how good they are at home. Love the over here.
Sunderland continue to be the shock of the Premier League. The newly promoted side is still sitting seventh on the table, and have been by far the best of the Championship teams. A fun fact about Sunderland, is that they are still undefeated at home this season. They've taken points off West Ham, Brentford, Aston Villa, Wolves, Everton and Arsenal already this season. Some of those are... not so impressive, but to score twice against Arsenal and get a point shows their gumption when playing at the Stadium of Light. Bournemouth is not a bad side, and I wouldn't be shocked if we saw a draw here, but I can't ignore the spread.
