Prop's Picks (2 Live)
FanDuel. Nolan McLean will take the mound for the Mets today, and I’m liking him to strike out at least seven Tigers. The impressive rookie has 57 Ks in just 45.1 innings while boasting some impressive advanced metrics (2.34 xERA, 30.8 called plus swinging strike rate). He’ll take on a Tigers lineup that’s been strikeout prone of late: 24% against righties over the last two weeks, and only a .642 OPS. Likely facing a lineup that includes their backup catcher, look for McLean to stymie the Tigers today at Citi Field.
FanDuel. Tacking this on to my card, as Shohei Ohtani has been dominant on his home mound. The two-way phenom has a 36% K% in LA dating back to last season, including 19 punchouts over his last two home starts. Overall, he’s over this line in each of the last four, and from a qualitative perspective, him not being in the lineup when pitching (of late) does seem like he’s very focused on putting forth a Cy Young caliber season. Look for him to take care of business against an underwhelming Giants lineup.
Caesar’s. Dylan’s Cease has allowed at least five hits in five of eight starts, including each of his last four outings. The Rays pose an interesting matchup for the righty as they are the premier contact-oriented team in baseball. The Rays have both the highest in and out of zone contact rate, the latter pertinent against a pitcher like Cease, who has an elite chase rate. The Rays own a .261 average against power pitchers, earning a hit in 22% of plate appearances. I don’t see this as a matchup where Cease will be able to stack K’s, and the Rays bats - especially their top four hitters - should squeeze out at least five hits in the first 23 plate appearances.
Caesar’s. I know that Reid Detmers is a popular breakout candidate as his underlying metrics suggest that he’s pitched better than his 4.33 ERA would indicate (2.91 xERA). But the fact is, he throws a lot of pitches: 4.08 per plate appearance is 16th highest out of 132 qualifiers. And he’ll face a Guardians lineup that sees the most pitches per plate appearance in baseball, with eight players in today’s lineup above average in the metric. The Guards offense are no slouches against lefties either: seven hitters in the lineup have at least a .340 OBP and 131 wRC+ against lefties this season. Detmers is under this line in 3/4 on the road - today should make it 4/5. I’d bet this to under 16.5.
Caesar’s. Slade Cecconi has struggled for the Guardians this season. Pitching to a 6.15 ERA (5.63 xERA), his velocity is down, walk rate up, and xBA (.286) is in the 12th percentile. Allowing 49 hits in 41 innings, he’s been especially poor against righties: .342 OBA and a .998 OPS - doesn’t bode well against the righty-heavy Angels. Even against a light-hitting Angels lineup, they will drive up pitch counts (3.98 per plate appearance). Cecconi has been drilled the third time through the order (17/37 with 5 homers allowed - 1.422 OPS), and his leash has become tighter and tighter. With a bullpen in decent enough shape, look for a quick hook the third time through the order - I’d bet this at under 16.5.
Caesar’s. Roku Sasaki pushed past the five inning mark in his last start against St. Louis, albeit he might have got a bit lucky (47% hard hit rate, 5.63 xFIP, .222 BABIP). He’s struggled mightily with his zone control and pitch efficiency this season, and I’m counting on that to resurface tonight against the Giants. Before the St. Louis start, he was under this line in 5/5 starts this season, and 6/8 last season. Even against a weaker Giants lineup, Sasaki has proven that working into the sixth is an anomaly.
FanDuel. Gavin Williams has emerged as one of the premier strikeout artists in the game. With 60 punch outs in 49.1 innings, he’s cleared this line in 6/8 starts, including all three of his home starts. His called plus swinging strike rate of 32.6% is second to only Jacob Misiorowski amongst pitchers with 30+ innings this season. He’ll face a Twins lineup that’s pretty average for strikeouts overall, but worse on the road (24.8% against righties away from home this season). And against power pitchers: 29% K%.
FanDuel. Braxton Ashcraft has made the most of his first regular stint in the Pirates rotation. The righty has pitched to a 3.02 ERA (2.64 xERA), with 45 K’s in 41.2 innings. His 27.2 K% and 13% swinging strike rate both rate above the 80th percentile for starting pitchers, as he’s been able to draw from his three main pitches to record strikeouts. His curveball in particular has been lethal against lefties, and he’ll see five in the lineup tonight (albeit one is Luis Arraez). Ashcraft has burned lefties with a 32.6% strikeout rate. And the righties he’ll face are largely plus-targets as well. The Giants are a below average lineup, and in a pitcher’s ballpark in pitching conditions, I like Ashcraft to stay efficient.
DraftKings. Kyle Harrison has been a revelation for Brewers injury-plagued rotation. However, he’s been highly inefficient with his pitch count, needing almost 4.3 per plate appearance, which is the most amongst qualified starters. That won’t bode well against a patient Yankees lineup. Harrison is under this line in 4/6 starts as is, and the Yankees have crushed lefties all season (.782 OPS, 116 wRC+). Brewers bullpen is rested after Jacob Misiorowski’s gem yesterday, preceded by an off-day. I’d bet this down to under 15.5.
Caesar’s / MGM. This is a high outs line for Emmet Sheehan, who has only finished six innings in four of his six starts. Sheehan does have a whiff-inducing arsenal, which leads to higher pitch counts: 4.04 pitches per plate appearance is 26th highest amongst 136 qualifiers. And he has been hit relatively hard, with a 5.23 ERA (4.32 xERA), 41% hard hit rate, .259 xBA. He’ll face the Braves who’ve been one of the top hitting teams all season against righties: .791 OPS, 119 wRC+, .348 wOBA. I’d bet this down to under 16.5 outs for a full unit.
FanDuel. With Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn back in the fold, the Brewers add two plus hitters against lefties with below average strikeout metrics against southpaws. The Brewers as is have run an 18% strikeout rate against lefties over the last month (fifth best). Max Fried is not a strikeout pitcher, per se - 21% K% this season and he typically sits within the 45th-55th percentile. The way he racks up strikeouts within his starts is through volume, and that should be tough to come by tonight. The Brewers make pitchers work - they have the lowest chase rate, and see the third most pitches per plate appearance. They don’t get caught looking at strike three (seventh fewest), and have the second lowest whiff rate.
DraftKings. Shota Imanaga has looked excellent to start the season, pitching to a 2.40 ERA (2.83 xERA). His two main off-speed pitches (splitter and sweeper) have been virtually unhittable, and he’s been able to limit damage with his four-seamer. He’ll face a Reds lineup that’s fared worse against lefties (.687 OPS and an 88 wRC+ over the last month) - and overall the Reds have dropped seven in a row. The Cubs bats, meanwhile, have been hot: .807 OPS and a 126 wRC+ versus righties the last two weeks. And they’ll square off against Rhett Lowder (5.09 ERA, 4.65 xERA). With Daniel Palencia and Brett Brown rested on the back-end, I love Imanaga to record the win today.
DraftKings. Jake Irvin has failed to clear more than five innings pitched in five of six starts this season. His pitch efficiency has worsened in the ABS era, with his zone rate dropping to a career worst 50.7%, and his chase rate at 24.7% (13th percentile). His 4.01 pitches per plate appearance is in the 26th percentile of qualifiers, and he also hasn’t been particularly effective (4.93 ERA, 4.81 xERA, 48% hard hit rate). He’ll face a patient Twins team (9th in pitches per PA, 10th in chase rate) that has been starting to break through at the plate of late.