Jacob Misiorowski hasn’t cleared this line in six weeks. …

DraftKings. With the Rays down 2-1 in the series, I expect Kevin Cash to manage this even closer than the first two games. Nick Martinez made one start in the ALDS, only pitching 3.2 innings before being pulled after just 63 pitches. Martinez ceded an .809 OPS the third time through the order this season, so I think his maximum tonight is just twice through. And he’s liable to be pulled quickly for a lefty if he gets in trouble against the southpaw heavy Cleveland lineup.

DraftKings. Shane Drohan has not pitched in a game in 18 days, it’s been three weeks since he threw more than 21 pitches, and he’s only pitched into his third inning once in the last month. He is not stretched out, and will be making his first postseason appearance. A lefty, it’s very possible that he doesn’t make it through the batting order, as the Dodgers have four righties stacked in the six-nine positions. The Brewers also have three converted starters in the bullpen who are fully rested, and capable of going for multiple innings.

DraftKings / Caesar’s. I’m a firm believer that the playoffs magnify pitch efficiency issues, and that’s what we’ve seen from Gavin Williams. Even though he’s been terrific, he has only been able to complete five and 5.2 innings in his outings, needing 4.56 pitches per plate appearance against the White Sox. The Rays have grinded out at bats more-so in the playoffs than the regular season, and are excellent a third time through the order facing a starter.

FanDuel. I’m going to go against conventional playoff wisdom, and back Blake Snell on his strike out prop tonight. We obviously know that Snell is one of the elite strikeout artists in the game, but the potential short leash in a must win game for the Dodgers could create an issue. That being said, I like the fact that Snell is pitching at home today and the Brewers are trotting out a lineup that I do think favors the lefty. Snell has had success against this lineup, including in the postseason last year, and Dave Roberts best bet is to ride his third ace.

DraftKings. In addition to backing Drew Rasmussen to stay under his hits allowed line, I also like him to pick up the win in game 1. Including the ALCS, he won 10 of 16 home outings this season. The Guardians undoubtedly will come into this one tired after their thrilling comeback. Foster Griffin (5.05 ERA since the All Star Break) will start, and the Guardians high leverage relievers were all used extensively last series. I’ll back the better starter, the better lineup, and the fresher bullpen at home, in Game 1.

DraftKings. Drew Rasmussen stayed under this line in 20/31 starts this season. He’ll face a light hitting Guardians lineup that’s hitting just .213 in the playoffs with a high walk rate (14%). Rasmussen was dominant against the Yankees, and has had plenty of success against this lineup. It’s also an emotional letdown spot for the Guards after a pretty epic comeback in the ALDS - I expect Rasmussen to roll.

DraftKings. At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is establishing himself as one of the best postseason pitchers… ever. He’s won seven of his ten starts, including five of his last six (since the beginning of last playoffs). He’s also a road warrior, winning nine of 13 road starts this season while pitching to a 1.73 ERA. The Dodgers have proved their playoff resilience time and time again, and I like them to either break through against Logan Henderson, or chase him early. The Brewers middle relief was used extensively yesterday, which should give LA the advantage in the middle innings.

DraftKings. Tarik Skubal has stayed under this line in 8/11 starts since coming over to LA. He’ll now face a strikeout averse Brewers lineup that features six hitters with below average strikeout rates against lefties. I like the Brewers to put together quality at bats at home against the Dodgers ace.

DraftKings. If Sean Burke starts this game (hasn’t been announced as of me betting/posting this), it’d be the first time this series that the White Sox went with a traditional starter, and only the second time in the playoffs (when Burke went four innings in the Wild Card round). White Sox manager Will Venable has made a living piecing together the innings thus far, and it’s hard to see him not pulling Burke at a moment’s notice in Game 5, the White Sox third straight close out game. The Guardians are a patient lineup, and have now seen Burke four times this season - I expect them to break through against him the second time around the order (.731 OPS allowed).

DraftKings. Even in an elimination game, and I’m going to back Gavin Williams on this strikeout line. He’s been dominant, with a 40% strikeout rate since July 1st, not including his 11 strikeout effort against the White Sox in Game 2 (22 whiffs). He did pitch an inning in Game 4, but that would have been his throw day, and it was only 18 pitches. The White Sox are left-handed heavy, which is Williams dominant split (37% K%, .264 wOBA versus lefties at home this season). I like him to clear this within four innings.

DraftKings. This is too high of a strikeout line for Parker Messick in an elimination game. The lefty has remained under this line in 23/33 starts this season. And despite his success against the White Sox, this will be his sixth time facing them. With a potential hook coming the moment he gets into trouble, Messick would have to pitch close to perfect to see enough batters to clear this line.

DraftKings. This is a line Tyler Mahle only has cleared in half of his 10 starts as a Brave, and 7 of his last 18 overall. He’ll now have an ultra short leash in an elimination game for Atlanta, against a strikeout averse Dodger lineup.

DraftKings. Dustin May has had an up and down season between his stints with the Cardinals and Brewers. His final numbers include a 4.70 ERA, 4.45 xERA, 3.97 xFIP. Down the stretch, he’s been used as more of a “bulk opener” than starter, throwing for 58, 36 and 70 pitches over his last three appearances. He’s starting tonight because of his success against the Padres this season (1.23 ERA in 22 innings across three starts). The playoff intensity should not be discounted, but I do believe May will have the leash to pitch easily past three innings tonight, especially with the Brewers up 2-0 in the series.

DraftKings. Another easy pull on an under for an outs prop on a Guardians pitcher. Gavin Williams has tremendous stuff, but that works against him in terms of his pitch efficiency. The righty needed 4.14 pitches per plate appearance this season, the fourth highest mark out of 107 qualified pitchers. The White Sox own the sixth lowest chase rate as a team, and have seen Williams four times this season (keeping him under this line three times). It’s a must win game for Cleveland, and they will go to their bullpen quickly.