Anthony Kay has been pulled in the middle of the fifth inning of both starts, but he’s given up only two runs in each of them. Left-handed hitters have yet to register a single hit, and the Royals right-handers have bene struggling big-time so far. Meanwhile, Royals RHP Seth Lugo has given up only two runs though 11.1 IP vs. solid Braves and Brewers lineups, both of which came in the same inning. The bullpens for both sides stink, so we’ll just play the starters.
Giants ace LHP Robbie Ray faces a Phillies offense with a .535 OPS vs. southpaws. Through two games, he’s allowed two total runs over the first five innings of games. Meanwhile, Cristopher Sanchez has only given up one run at all over 11.1 IP, and the Giants’ .539 OPS vs. right-handers suggest he’s in line for another stellar outing, especially in pitcher-friendly SF.
Kevin Gausman has allowed just three hits over 12 innings so far, with 21 strikeouts. He’ll face a Dodgers offense that’s scored 13, 10, 8 and 14 runs the last four games. Something has to give – or does it? Toronto’s bullpen has a 6.14 ERA, so if Gausman goes 6 IP like his previous starts, L.A. can wait and pour it on late. World Series hero and Blue Jays spoiler Yoshi Yamamoto can do his thing and the Dodgers bullpen can keep it up.
Freddy Peralta and Zac Gallen each rebounded from subpar opening starts with stellar second outings. If they’re awash, that benefits the Mets, whose bullpen owns a 1.66 ERA compared to the 6.50 so far from Arizona’s. The D’backs have struggled to hit on the road and in day games; the Mets’ OPS in each split is 100 points higher.
The last two games of this series have finished with 2-0 and 2-1 scores, each side winning one. But the Braves’ lineup has more potential to break out (it scored 17 on Thursday vs. the D’backs) and we trust Atlanta’s Martin Perez, who tossed 4.1 innings of shutout ball in his opener, over Brandon Pfaadt, who got rocked for five runs. Arizona’s had issues vs. LHPs so far. The Braves’ bullpen is deeper and better.
The Yankees are a solid 6-1 to start, and all six wins have been by at least two runs. Ryan Weathers was great in his opening start (one run allowed) and he’s backed by a premier bullpen sporting a 1.57 ERA so far. The Marlins were a nice surprise in the opening week, but they played the Rockies and White Sox at home. Friday was their first game outside of sunny Florida, and they lost 8-2.
MacKenzie Gore’s Rangers debut went well; he breathed a sigh of relief he was no longer in Washington, then no-hit the Phillies for the opening five innings. The Reds are a respectable 3-3, but rank 29th in average (.187) and are scoring 2.8 runs per outing. We just need Texas to get to Brady Singer and for Gore to go five frames. He went five-plus in 10 of his first 11 starts in 2025.
See the MacKenzie Gore prop pick as to why we love his matchup vs. the light-hitting Reds. In addition, the Rangers own a 1.85 bullpen ERA, so they can hold a lead. This is higher than usual odds for a moneyline pick, but we’re not afraid of fading Brady Singer, who has a history of struggling more on the road.
It’s early, but the White Sox so far have made the Brewers and Marlins look like legit World Series contenders. They rank dead-last in ERA at 8.63, and their bullpen is even worse (9.12). That’s good news for the Blue Jays; Chicago is going the “opener” route for its home opener. CWS also rank bottom-10 in average and runs scored; everything has come via eight homers. That isn’t likely to work vs. Blue Jays starter Dylan Cease, who’s given up an average of one homer every two starts over the last four years. Cease was dynamite in the opener, overwhelming a bad Athletics lineup with 12 strikeouts and only three hits allowed over 5.1 innings.
Peterson only made it 5.1 innings (16 outs) in his one outing vs. the Pirates, but it was a breezy 76-pitch gem, with no runs allowed and 51 strikes to 25 balls. He can go longer here vs. a Giants team that has been dreadful hitting. Its OPS totals so far: .388 at home, .540 vs. LHPs, .558 overall.
It's a battle of the 29th- and 30th-ranked offenses in MLB. Kansas City hasn't had a game yet that totaled over eight runs. Minnesota has had just one so far, but all its others were between 3-5 runs. Twins ace Joe Ryan can keep a potentially potent KC lineup down. Royals starter Noah Cameron makes his debut, but Minnesota doesn't have the offense to put too many crooked numbers up.
Rays Monday starter Nick Martinez, 35, posted a 14.49 spring ERA; batters hit .433 off him over 13.2 IP. He’ll be relieved by a bullpen that has an ERA north of 11 after a series vs. light-hitting St. Louis. Combined, they’ll face a Brewers lineup that, through one long weekend, leads MLB in runs, OPS and average. The Rays can score, too, but Brewers LHP pickup Kyle Harrison allowed 1 ER in three of his four starts. He’s especially tough on left-handers, and Tampa boasts 5-6 in its starting lineup. Milwaukee's bullpen ERA so far has a "0" as its first number.