Marlins pitcher Ryan Gusto limited the Braves to one run over six innings last time out. No team has hit worse over the last two weeks than the Angels, whose .587 OPS off right-handers in that span also ranks 30th. The Marlins’ bats scored seven runs on Saturday, breaking out of a five-game offensive slump. They can keep it going here vs. Grayson Rodriguez, who has a 7.44 ERA on the season, 7.24 in 11 day games.

The Mets were blanked on Saturday, but had scored six-plus runs in four straight prior, and overall are hitting well. No so for the Pirates, who are 3-9 in their last 12 and have scored five runs once in the last 11. Jared Jones isn’t going deep into games for Pittsburgh. For the Mets, San Manaea has gone six innings in three straight, all quality starts, and the bullpen has a 1.82 ERA the last two weeks. Tasty plus odds on the road side.

The poor Athletics have lost 11 of 12. They were just swept by the Reds, suffering three one-run defeats. This matchup does not look as favorable. Boston has been the hottest team in baseball over the last month. Just over the last two weeks, the Red Sox OPS at home is .845 and vs. right-handers is .811. Those splits are roughly 300 points higher than what the A’s are doing. Payton Tolle (6-6, 3.30 ERA) has been solid, and he should get run sport as the surging Sox lineup faces Jack Perkins (0-4, 7.44 ERA last seven games) and a bullpen with a 6.26 ERA since mid-July.

The pinstripes have scored over two runs just once all week, and it was in a 13-7 blowout loss to the Cardinals. But things are even rougher for Tyler Mahle on the road. The Braves starter is 0-6 with an 8.04 ERA in nine road games, and has been far worse under the lights (5.95 ERA in 11 games) as well. The Braves are on a roll, though their last nine games on the road have produced just four wins. Max Fried can limit his former team; in his three starts since his return from the IL, he’s given up four runs on eight hits with 18 strikeouts.

Mets rookie LHP Zac Thornton has given up seven earned runs in his last five starts. Thornton, and a bullpen with a 1.65 ERA the last two weeks, combine to face a fumbling Pirates lineup that’s scored exactly two runs in four of five. The Mets scored 13 runs on Thursday to complete a sweep at Cleveland. They scored six runs in all three games vs. a slew of decent Guardians arms. Carmen Mlodzinski will open for the Pirates, and he’s embraced that role. But we prefer the hitting trends of the road side, and Thornton can shut down a team that has the worst OPS vs. left-handers over the last 15 days.

Fading the A’s has become a thing for me, and we’ll continue it here. Athletics LHP Jacob Lopez has fared better of late but goes twice through the order at most, and the bullpen behind him has a 7.64 ERA the last two weeks. Cincy scores at home and can continue that here. So we’ll back Rhett Lowder, who on average has been over four runs better at Great American Ballpark. He’s also likely to go only twice through the order. The difference is, Cincy’s bullpen is at 1.60 in that two-week span.

Jameson Taillon makes his Blue Jays debut after a pretty rough summer with the Cubs. He’s had one quality start since mid-May, owns an 8.90 ERA his last seven starts and hasn’t lasted five innings in three straight. Houston’s home OPS (.945) and that vs. RHPs (.848) is miles ahead of Toronto’s splits the last two weeks. Hunter Brown, in 10 starts for Houston, has given up 0-2 earned runs seven times.

The Pirates have beaten the Brewers in six of seven this season, including Monday night. But Logan Henderson is going for the Brew Crew, and Milwaukee is 7-2 when he starts. His last seven games, he’s 5-0 with a 2.25 ERA. Jared Jones has been nearly as impressive for the Pirates. But we’ll side with the Brewers’ bats at home vs. a Pirates lineup with a .562 OPS on the road since the break.

Mets LHP Sean Manaea has quality starts in three of his last four. Home runs have been the issue; he allowed seven of them in five July starts with nearly every run he’s allowed coming on dingers. In the Guardians’ 112 plate appearances vs. left-handers the last two weeks, they’ve hit just one home run. We’ll back the Mets’ bats against Joey Cantillo; NYM's OPS splits in that same span are far better, including vs. LHPs (.812 vs. .577). Backing a big dog here.

We backed Brady Singer last week vs. the Guardians and he stunk it up. But still, Singer has really improved, allowing 0-2 earned runs in six of his previous eight starts. He’s backed by a bullpen with a sub-2 ERA the last two weeks. The A’s without Shea Langeliers are bottoming out, including scoring one run or less in two of three. The Reds are scoring and while J.T. Ginn isn’t bad, he hasn’t gotten out of the fifth inning in his last two road starts and the A’s bullpen has a 7.30 ERA the last 14 days.

After a miserable start to the season, Cristian Javier has turned it around for the Astros. He posted a 3.00 ERA in five July games and gets the ball here vs. a Blue Jays team that’s winning games, but not by scoring runs. Houston has won 10 of 11, has been crushing at home and Shane Bieber has a 12.54 ERA in three road starts for Toronto.

The Nationals have lost five straight and just traded one of their top hitters in Luis Garcia Jr. Still, they’ve hit RHPs to an .830 OPS the last couple weeks. Aaron Nola had one of his better outings last time out vs. the Marlins, allowing one run over 5.2 innings. He still took the loss, and now hasn’t won a game since May. He also owns a 6.40 home ERA on the season. It sounds like a bullpen game for the Nationals, which normally I’m not fond of backing. But Washington’s rested pen has a 2.91 ERA the last 15 days. The Phillies have hit left-handers hard lately, but not right-handers. The Nats can take advantage. Nice plus odds.

A’s starter Jack Perkins was 0-3 with a 7.79 ERA in July, which was only a little worse than his 6.65 ERA in June – and slightly better than the 7.98 posted in May. The bullpen behind him has a 6.96 ERA this week. Detroit’s offense is hitting RHPs to a .912 OPS over the last two-plus weeks. So Detroit, which has scored 13, 9 and 14 runs the last three games, should score some here as well. Framber Valdez has allowed 0-2 runs in four of his last seven starts, and 4-6 in the other three. Expect the better version vs. a lineup with a subpar OPS vs. southpaws the last month.

Reds LHP Andrew Abbott has delivered back-to-back quality starts, allowing 0 and 2 ER in six-inning games. His ERA since the start of May is a scant 2.95. The Cincy bullpen owns a sub-2 ERA the last week-plus. Meanwhile, Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft is 3-1 in his last five starts, but with a 7.71 ERA. Over Pittsburgh’s last nine games, the team has scored 7+ runs three times and 0-2 runs the other six.

Marlins RHP Tyler Phillips posted a 5.30 ERA in five July starts and didn’t go over five inning in any of them. He’s backed by a bullpen with a 6.04 ERA the last week. The Mets’ bullpen ERA in that span is 0.74 and rookie Zac Thornton has allowed four earned runs over his last four starts, all going 6-7 frames. Miami has had issues hitting off LHPs lately. New York should have more opportunities to tally runs here at home.