Adam's Picks (2 Live)
Nobody hits left-handers like the New York Yankees. Royals LHP Noah Cameron found that out earlier, allowing five runs on seven hits, including three HR, in just four innings. The pinstripes can get to him and a Royals pen with a 5.36 ERA since mid-May. Gerrit Cole looked like Gerrit Cole in his first outing, allowing two runs over six innings.
Old pitchers like them day games. Kevin Gausman is 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA for matinees and he’s on a roll in general, allowing one run over his last 12.1 IP. We’ll back him and Toronto’s hot bullpen against Eury Perez, who is 0-4 with a 7.04 ERA on the road. Neither team has been consistent with the bats, but the Blue Jays are in a far better position here.
This one’s about the pitching. Trey Yesavage has a 1.05 ERA in five starts. Janson Junk is at 5.07 through 10 and it’s worse on the road. Toronto’s bullpen is also better. Miami just swept the Mets but because New York couldn’t hit. The Blue Jays can hit, especially at home.
Jesus Luzardo of the Phillies and Randy Vasquez of the Padres are in good spots here. After a tough start to 2026, Luzardo has given up over two runs just once in his last six starts. Vasquez is 5-2 with a 2.96 ERA. They each face lineups with OPS numbers in the mid-.500’s the last two weeks vs. the handedness of these hurlers. Philly has managed more than one run just once in the last four games, San Diego over two runs just once in four. We’ll play both starters.
Nick Lodolo has a 7.20 ERA through three starts and hasn’t lasted six innings in any of them. The bullpen behind him has a 7.11 ERA since May 11. The Mets’ offense didn’t show up in Miami (two runs in three games!) but have hit left-handers pretty well of late, and have definitely been better at home. Nolan McLean got smacked by the Nationals his last start; that was the first time he’d allowed over three runs (nine starts).
Grayson Rodriguez is still building things up after missing nearly two years, and the Angels’ bullpen ranks as the second-worst in MLB since May 8. So Texas should score. Meanwhile, Jacob deGrom has been hit hard in two of his last three starts. His other six starts since April 1, he’s given up 0-1 runs in each. L.A. ranks dead-last the last two weeks in hitting right-handers, and over the last 13 games has scored more than two runs just three times.
It’s a bullpen game for the Mets, and New York’s relievers have delivered, posting a 1.83 ERA. The Mets have scored at least four runs in six straight, and six-plus runs in five of eight. Marlins starter Eury Perez has lost his last five straight starts with a 6.49 ERA.
The Yankees’ offense has a .584 OPS vs. right-handers the last 15 days, which isn’t good. Spencer Miles will get a bulk relief spot; he did it on May 10 vs. the Tigers and tossed 6.2 scoreless innings. Toronto’s offense stinks, but it stinks less vs. left-handers of late and Carlos Rodon hasn’t been sharp.
Jose Soriano has had his moments but they’ve mostly been on the road and in day games. He’s nearly three runs worse at home, and four runs worse at night. He’s likely to get little relief (the Angels’ May bullpen ERA is 5.51) and little run support (0-2 runs in 9 of 12). Speaking of splits, Luis Severino is two runs better on the road.
The Braves have the No. 2 offense in baseball so far, and their 5.9 runs per game average on the road is exceptional. Meanwhile in their last nine games, the Marlins have scored 9+ runs three times and under-3 runs four more. Guess which side of the spectrum we project vs. Spencer Strider (2.45 ERA)?
The Reds’ bullpen ranks dead-last in MLB in ERA for the month of May, at 8.09. Starter Nick Lodolo owns an 8.68 ERA through two starts. Philly’s OPS this month vs. left-handers is .949. The ascending Phillies should put some crooked numbers on the board. Philly RHP Andrew Painter has been blown up three times but allowed one run in three other starts. A solid bullpen can do the heavy lifting.
Red Sox LHP Payton Tolle boasts a 1.99 ERA through four starts, but the team is only 1-3 when he starts. He's given up four unearned runs the last two starts. Bryce Elder has been even better (1.81 ERA in nine starts) and the Braves are 6-3 in those games. These respective offenses rank No. 1 and No. 27 in scoring. Boston is 5-10 as an underdog, Atlanta is 25-9 when favored.
Sandy Alcantara has been a good comeback story for the Marlins, but he's faltering (5.40 ERA last seven starts). His Tampa counterpart, Nick Martinez, might win the AL Cy Young if he keeps up what he's doing. He has a 1.70 ERA through eight starts, and is even better at home and in daytime games. Tampa's OPS in May is over 200 points higher than Miami vs. RHPs. All day on the Rays.