Going a half-unit on this low number. Over their last seven starts, Parker Messick has a 2.59 ERA, Payton Tolle has a 2.36 ERA. The bullpens over the last two weeks are at 2.22 and 2.03, respectively. The Red Sox aren’t hitting anyone lately and the Guardians aren’t known for their bats. The weather at Fenway calls for temps in the 50s with a 15 mph wind blowing straight in. Seven of Boston's last nine games have totaled six runs or less.

Nationals rookie LHP Jackson Kent has a 6.40 ERA through seven starts and the bullpen has a 5.26 ERA in the last two weeks. In that same span, the Tigers own a .944 OPS vs. left-handers and a .944 OPS at home. So Detroit should score. Meanwhile, the Nats looked uninterested on Monday. Drew Anderson, who has a 2.36 ERA since joining the rotation, can hold them.

The Nationals and Tigers each have starters making season debuts. For Washington, DJ Herz is coming off Tommy John and allowed nine runs over 18 minor league innings. The left-hander faces a Tigers order that has managed over one run just once in the last five games, but has an .897 OPS off left-handers since Sept. 7. Detroit’s River Ryan is coming off a three-month hamstring injury; he was a key part of the Tarik Skubal trade. Both are likely to be on a pitch count, which aids the Tigers and their better bullpen.

The Rockies haven't scored five runs in three straight home games. However, they did score five-plus runs in six straight prior to that; they average 5.1 rpg at Coors all season. Mariners RHP Bryce Miller has a 7.29 ERA over his last seven starts, the Mariners' bullpen ERA this month is 4.64, and the Rockies own an .856 home OPS in September.

Cam Schlittler gets to put a stamp on a Cy Young-level season, facing a D'backs lineup that's scored 2-3 runs in three straight. The Yankees are on an 8-2 run, and the bats have tallied eight-plus runs in three of four. Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt struggled vs. the Yankees in one prior start and was worked over by the Rangers last time out.

Poor Nationals LHP Andrew Alvarez has yet to win a game in 15 starts because the bullpen behind him stinks. His ERA is 2.37 over this last seven starts; his last outing, he allowed one hit over seven frames and still didn't get the W. Washington has scored six-plus runs in four of five games. The Cards' bats are struggling and Michael McGreevy has had issues in innings 4-5.

Toronto has Dylan Cease on the mound, who is 7-2 with a 2.12 ERA over his last 15 games. All season on the road, he’s 8-1 with a 1.89 ERA. Countering him is Kumar Rocker, who owns a 6.16 ERA in his last seven starts and is 3-10 at home. Recent offensive numbers favor the Blue Jays as well. Toronto has scored at least five runs in four of its last five games and its OPS vs. right-handers the last two weeks is nearly 200 points higher than Texas’.

Each team starts a left-hander, Tampa with Ian Seymour (9-6, 4.27 ERA), Boston with Ranger Suarez (7-4, 3.33). Therein lies an advantage for the Rays. Over the last two weeks, Tampa’s OPS vs. LHPs is a modest .709. Boston is at .501, with a .535 OPS on the road in that span as well. Over his last 11 games. Seymour has allowed 2+ runs in nine of them, but no more than three runs in any. He went four innings at home vs. Tampa in May and allowed just one hit. Suarez has been either dominant or very hittable of late. Boston's bullpen ERA the last two weeks is 1.95; we’re avoiding that here.

The Rangers average just 4.2 runs per game on the season, fifth-fewest in baseball. But lately, they’ve been raking, especially at home, where they tallied five-plus runs in five of seven. Their OPS is .802 in that span. In Septembers vs. LHPs, it’s at .905, so they should find opportunities vs. Red Sox left-hander Patrick Sandoval, who’s allowed 18 runs over his last 21 innings and is 0-4 in those five games.

David Peterson has been inconsistent since being traded to the Cubs in late June. In two September starts, both vs. the Brewers, he allowed six runs over 3.2 IP in the first and one run over 4.1 in the second. The Braves can hit the ball, but over the last two weeks their .535 OPS vs. left-handers ranks only above the Twins and Royals. Chicago has scored fewer than four runs just once since Aug. 26. Braves RHP Reynaldo Lopez has given up 4+ runs in three of his last four starts, none of which lasted six innings. A half-unit play.

The Yankees may be finding their groove and can keep it up here vs. Dean Kremer, who’s given up 18 runs over his last 23.1 IP (five starts) and a Twins bullpen with a 5.02 ERA since Sept. 1. On the flip side, Will Warren has allowed four runs over his last 20.1 IP. Warren and the bullpen with the second-best ERA in baseball can limit a Twins lineup averaging 2.6 rpg the last five games, with four or fewer run in each.

Rockies starting pitcher Gabriel Hughes is 0-7 with a 5.81 ERA in 11 starts, but posted a 10.03 ERA in August and has been a few runs worse on the road compared to at Coors. The Colorado bullpen has a 8.51 September ERA. Detroit's offense isn't the most powerful force in the universe, but it's scored 7, 6 and 12 in its last three and averages 4.5 runs on Sundays. This feels like the Tigers should go over the norm.

The Twins have a .581 OPS vs. left-handers since late August. That’s not good with Parker Messick coming to town. The Guardians’ budding ace has a 2.38 ERA the last seven starts. He’s faced the Twins twice already and allowed two earned runs over 11.1 innings, and 13 strikeouts. On the flip side, Taj Bradley has mowed down the Guardians twice as well. But he’s in a bit of a slump with a 4.89 ERA since the start of August. He’s given up four runs in two of his last three starts.

It’s been three weeks since the Astros lost the first game of a series. It’s about time for another one, and Drew Rasmussen (14-5, 2.88 ERA) is a pitcher capable of doing it. What’s more, the Rays’ offense had scored 6-7 runs in five straight games before being shut down Atlanta’s Martin Perez on Thursday. Houston will give the bulk of innings to rookie Ethan Pecko, who’s had issues in his two road games (four home runs, seven runs in 9.1 innings).

We'll avoid two solid bullpens and attack shaky starters. Toronto’s Max Scherzer has gotten better since a disastrous start to the year, but he’s still 2-6 with a 6.23 ERA on the home turf. Baltimore seemingly is out of an offensive funk, scoring 6, 5 and 9 runs the last three games against a decent Guardians rotation. Toronto’s offense the last 15 days has a .854 OPS at home and a .750 OPS vs. right-handed pitching. Orioles RHP Chris Bassitt has a 6.43 ERA outside of Camden Yards.