Prop's Picks (1 Live)
FanDuel (1.5u). Taj Bradley has cleared this line in seven of ten starts this season, and he gets an ideal opponent today. Not only do the White Sox strikeout a lot: 24% against righties this season; but the South-Siders are also starting seven lefties in the lineup today. Bradley strikes out southpaws at a 32% clip, while holding them to a .190 average (.196 xBA). In a day, getaway game, I love Bradley enough to go 1.5 units on this.
FanDuel. Game 1s are all about trying to get ahead of what will become series trends. The way I see the Knicks defending Victor Wembanyama, be it with OG Anunoby or one of their centers, is by packing the paint and making the Spurs beat them from the outside. Julian Champagnie should not only benefit from catch and shoot opportunities, but he’ll likely be where the Knicks will “hide” Jalen Brunson defensively. The Knicks allowed the third highest catch and shoot frequency in the regular season at 34.5%, and they’re currently running similarly at 33% in the playoffs. Champagnie, who ended the Thunder series on a roll, should carry momentum over into the finals. Bet it to over 10.5 points (to win one unit).
Caesar’s. In his first season as a Rockie, Tomoyuki Sugano has remained under this outs line in 4/6 road starts. Pitching to a 3.62 away from Coors Field, Sugano is a big time regression candidate with a 4.75 xFIP and extremely fortuitous .214 BABIP. While the Angels might not seem like a tough matchup on paper, they hit finesse pitchers well with a .780 OPS. And they’ve been hot of late, with a .798 OPS against righties over the last two weeks. Colorado’s bullpen is in decent shape, and Sugano does not have a long leash as is - take the under.
Caesar’s. Davis Martin had cleared this strikeout line in 8/10 starts before his five K performance against Minnesota in his last outing (in which I was unfortunately on the wrong side of). He did, however, record a 33.3% called plus swinging strike rate, including 14 swings and misses in that outing - numbers that would typically lend to more significant strikeout totals. What ultimately burned Martin was his efficiency, as he was pulled at just 84 pitches (22 batters) in a clean six innings. Against a Twins lineup that’s at a 24% at a 24% K% over the last two weeks against righties, I do see this as worth a re-bet at even better odds this time around.
FanDuel. After two dominant outings to start the season, Kevin Gausman has remained under this strikeout line in nine of his last ten starts. Overall, he’s under this total in 5/5 road starts where his strikeout rate drops to 16%. The Braves own the seventh lowest K% against righties this season (20.5%), and have been even better over the last two weeks at 18%.
DraftKings. Landen Roupp has been impressive for the otherwise lackluster Giants. But even with his success (3.30 ERA, 3.03 xERA), he’s under this line in 5/11 starts, due in part to poor pitch efficiency. Roupp needs 4.19 pitches per plate appearance, the fourth most amongst qualifiers. And that number increases to 4.24 against lefties, paired with an 11.3% walk rate. Thats not ideal against a patient Brewers lineup that’s throwing out six lefties tonight. Milwaukee as a team has the lowest chase rate this season and typically look to make starters grind it out.
Caesar’s. Emmet Sheehan has remained under this outs line in 5/10 starts this season. However, he’s struggled on the road, where he’s pitched to a 6.52 ERA, staying under this outs line in 3/4 outings. He’ll face the Diamondbacks lineup that’s in the top ten of pitches per plate per plate appearance against right handed pitching. Arizona should also start five lefty hitters today, which is Sheehan’s worse split (.869 OPS allowed).
Caesar’s. Robbie Ray has struggled over his last three starts: 13 innings, 20 hits, 18 runs, 11 walks. As is, his ERA sits at 4.60 (with a 5.35 xERA), and he’s under in 7/11 starts. On the road is where is struggles have been exacerbated, as his opponents have a .931 OPS off him. And today, he’ll be tested in the optimal hitting conditions of Coors Field. Ray has struggled traditionally in the altitude with a lifetime 5.33 in Colorado.
DraftKings / Caesar’s. This is an ambitiously high line for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Dodgers ace is under this mark in 7/10 starts, sporting a .183 OBA. Despite some big names in the lineup, the Phillies sport a .231 average against righties (25th), and only .216 against righties in away games (28th). Even the under at 4.5 hits allowed at plus odds is worth a look for a half unit.
A little counterintuitive to fade the MVP in the most important game of the season, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t looked comfortable all series, and I don’t see him breaking out offensively in Game 7. SGA has not cleared this line in the Western Conference Finals, and is under in nine of his last 11 games dating back to the Suns series. The Spurs defense has taken him out of his element - normally a 50% shooter on pull-up jumpers, SGA is at 41% in this series. And he’s passing out his drives at a 10% higher rate. The Spurs are comfortable with him facilitating, so I’m leaving assists out. Game 7s infrequently lend to struggling star’s best performances - I’m on the under.
FanDuel. This is why the Thunder keep Alex Caruso’s minutes at bay during the regular season - to unleash him for these exact moments. Caruso is 5/5 to the over on this points line in the playoffs with 24+ minutes, and four of those games came in this series. Everything about this situation screams big minutes for Caruso who played 32 minutes in last season’s Game 7 in the Finals. No Jalen Williams or Ajay Mitchell means there will continue to be more shots to go around, and the Spurs will continue to leave him open behind the arc.
DraftKings. After three years in Japan, Foster Griffin returned to the MLB this season and has been a solid piece atop the Nationals otherwise shaky rotation. The lefty is pitching to a 3.63 ERA (4.14 xERA). With only 51 hits allowed in 62 innings, Griffin is under this hits allowed prop in 8/11 outings. While his advanced stats do indicate some regression could be coming (.245 xBA versus a .219 oBA), this is still an excellent matchup. The Padres are 25th overall with a .219 average against lefties - .208 over the last month. After two tough starts, Griffin rebounded with a sterling outing against the Braves his last time out - look for more of the same today.
DraftKings. Going to fade Parker Messick on his outs prop again. The 17.5 line has proved to be a touch to high for the rookie, who is under in 7/11 starts, three times being pulled in the sixth inning. He’s allowed a .304 oBA the third time through the order, and Guardians manager Stephen Vogt often pulls the lefty for a righty bullpen arm, in a tough matchup. The Red Sox are a much better offensive team against lefties, especially of late: over the last 30 days, Boston has a .816 OPS and 128 wRC+.
FanDuel (1.5u). The script has flipped in terms of how I’m viewing the Spurs backcourt situation. Dylan Harper re-emerged in Game 6, and looked like the healthy All-Rookie version of himself. While the scoring was impressive, it’s the rebounding that remains consistent in these playoffs: Harper has now secured at least 4 rebounds in 12/16 full games, including 4/5 in this series. He’s averaging .35 rebound chances per minute (similar to the rest of the playoffs), a 31% increase from the regular season. It’s a little juicy, but with De’Aaron Fox continuing to struggle, Harper should see 24-26 minutes. I have the rookie snatching 5 rebounds, and would bet this at over 4.5 at plus odds (to win one unit).