Prop's Picks (2 Live)
FanDuel. It can be a fool’s errand betting on an over for a bench player in the playoffs, but this line is too low for Dylan Harper. The rookie averaged 11.8 points per 22.6 minutes in the regular season - even if he loses a rotation, I have him at 9 points in 17 minutes (essentially his average). And this is a plus spot schematically against a Portland defense that bleeds transition and primary ball-handler points. Harper’s role increased over the back half of the season, even with the Spurs at full strength. And him being a rookie doesn’t bother me as much, since most of this Spurs roster are new to the playoffs.
Caesar’s / DK. After watching both Magic play-in games, it’s evident that Franz Wagner is still working to get his conditioning back to normal levels, and his first step was a bit slower than usual. This Pistons defense is not an ideal opponent for working your way back, playing a straight-up, physical brand of defense. Paolo Banchero has performed well in this matchup, and has proved that he’s going to dominate the ball (for better or worse) and Desmond Bane’s presence should relegate Wagner to #3 in the pecking order.
DraftKings. Jumping on this line before we se see lineups, as the Mariners batting order could be pretty messy today. Already a weak hitting team against lefties, they are likely to feature their backup catcher today, and Brendan Donovan could be held out with an injury once again. Eve at full strength, Mackenzie Gore had his way with this lineup two weeks ago (5 innings, 9 strikeouts) and has 30 punchouts in 21.1 innings this season. I don’t love backing a pitcher giving a team the second time in a short span, but the Mariners league worst .465 OPS, and sixth highest K% of 25.6% against southpaws alleviates those fears.
Caesar’s. As great as Devin Booker is, he’s about to get a healthy dose of Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, and the lethal Thunder perimeter defense. Booker struggled to get in a rhythm against the lesser defenses of Portland and Golden State, and this line reads as too high against a rested, fully healthy Thunder playoff defense. Play it down to under 28.5.
Caesar’s. Shane McClanahan has only allowed five hits across his three starts combined (13.2 innings) so far this season. Even with a tired Rays bullpen, I still do not envision the Rays pushing their ace, who is making his first start on four days rest after his 2.5 year layoff. McClanahan’s expected batting average allowed is .217, and he’s been wild with 11 walks, helping our cause here. The Pirates are hitting .250 off lefties with a 9.7% walk rate - only registering a hit in 22% of their plate appearances. In a much tougher than average matchup for the Buccos, I only have them picking up four hits. I love this at plus odds.
FanDuel. With Jayson Tatum making his remarkable return from his Achilles injury, his scoring has still remained second fiddle to Jaylen Brown. But one of the areas he’s made a tremendous impact is on the glass, averaging an even 10 rebounds per game in just 32.6 minutes per contest. Fully built up to 40 minutes in his last two regular season games, this is a terrific spot for Tatum to continue to hit the boards. The Sixers run small, and they’ve allowed the eighth most rebounds per game this year. Tatum has traditionally come out hitting the boards hard in the playoffs, with 10+ in his last three first round Game 1s. I expect today to follow suit.
DraftKings. The one decisive advantage the Knicks have in this series is in the paint. Mitchell Robinson should feast on the glass in his minutes, especially as the Hawks will be without their own backup center, Jock Landale. In the regular season, Robinson cleared this line in 19/25 games against teams outside the top 12 in opponent putback points and rebounds allowed (including 17 of his last 19). With the Hawks ranking 18th and 21st, respectively, Robinson should be in a spot to clear this line for the third straight matchup against Atlanta this season. Playable up to over 14.5.
FanDuel (-154). While this is a decent amount of juice, I’m surprised that we’re getting anything remotely playable on an Anthony Edwards 2.5 three pointers made line. Edwards averaged 3.4 makes per game this season, notching at least three in 68% of games he played at least 24 minutes. He’ll now face a Nuggets defense that allowed the sixth most threes attempted on the eighth highest three point rate. Edwards shot 31 threes in three games against the Nuggets this season, accounting for 46% of his shots (a bump from the usual 42%). I’d bet this up to -165.
Caesar’s. Too many lefties in today’s Royals lineup (6) for Will Warren who struggles moreso against that side of the platoon. Not only does Warren see his OPS spike to .766 against lefties, but his pitches per plate appearance also spikes to 4.2. With the Yanks bullpen in decent shape, and the Royals above average in pitches per plate appearance this season, I see Warren staying under this line for the fourth time in five starts.
Caesar’s. Scottie Barnes was under this line in 35/52 games this season when playing with both Brandon Ingram and RJ Barrett (and under in 4/5 without Immanuel Quickley, who is day-to-day). Narrowing it down further, Barnes is under in 21/26 games within that subset against the top 10 teams in paint points allowed, in which Cleveland ranks fifth. Almost 70% of Barnes’ made baskets and 60% of his assists are in the paint. And notably, Barnes shot 26% from three on the road this season (similar to last season). This series reads more to be Brandon Ingram heavy, and I have Barnes projected closer to 22.5 points plus assists, even with an expected minutes bump.
Caesar’s. Even with a tightened rotation in the first play-in game, there’s not enough usage to go around for De’Anthony Melton, who will continue to come off the bench. Functioning more in an off-ball role, against a team that does well to prohibit secondary action, I like Melton to stay under.
DraftKings. It’s a bit nerve-wracking taking an over on a Jalen Green points prop in win-or-home spot. But this is quite the discounted line: Green is averaging 22.3 points per 32 minutes this season, a very conservative minutes projection given his 39 on Tuesday. He’s cleared this line in 13/16 games playing just 28+ minutes with Devin Booker active. Coming off a 35 point performance on 29 shots, Green will be anything but shy on Friday. He’ll face a Warriors team that allowed the 10th most made pull-up jumpers per game on the third highest effective field goal percentage. Green was 10/17 on pull-ups against Portland, and should thrive in that department against the Warriors.
DraftKings. After a banner rookie year, Kon Knueppel slowed down the stretch, staying under this line in 10 of his last 13 games. In Tuesday’s play-in game, Knueppel was a distant fifth on the Hornets in touch time and front court touches per possession. I expect that trend to continue tonight, against a Magic defense that was number three in terms of limiting catch and shot opportunities, and second in assists per field goals made. Knueppel, of the five Hornets main scorers, is the most reliant on the assist. And since the Coby White trade, the Duke product is under this line in 11/14 games in which LaMelo Ball shoots at least 18 times - a very conservative floor for the enigmatic point guard.