FanDuel. Logan Gilbert has pretty significant home/road strikeout splits, with just a 24.5% punch-out percentage on the road, compared to 28% at home - similar to what we’ve seen in seasons prior from the Mariners righty. Gilbert will face a Giants lineup that has been strikeout averse all season (20.1% against righties), but features six above average targets in the lineup today. Gilbert has cleared this line in 7/11 home starts, including each of his last four.
DraftKings. Nolan McLean is under this line in 15/19 starts this season. Between his .207 batting average allowed (.216 xBA) and 8.7% walk rate, the Mets rookie only allows a hit every 5.5 batters faced, or every 22 pitches thrown. The Phillies lineup today only features four hitters with a batting average above .238 against righties this season.
Caesar’s. Taj Bradley is one of those pitchers who has pretty drastic home/road splits. The Twins righty is under this outs line in 7/10 road starts, including each of his last five outings. While his road ERA won’t necessarily stick out (4.06), his walk rate spikes to 11.3%, and his pitches per plate appearance sits at 4.18 (compared to 3.91 at home). Today, he’ll have a tough test against the patient Cubs at Wrigley Field. Chicago sees the fourth most pitches per plate appearance (3.98) partly due to the fourth lowest team chase rate. I don’t see the Cubs needing to do too much offensively to knock Bradley out before the end of the sixth.
Caesar’s. Michael King is under this line in 13/19 starts this season. Allowing a .211 average and 9.7% walk rate, King only gives up a hit every 5.3 hitters faced (or every 21 pitches). The xBA is a bit inflated (.241), but that’s a product of his elevated ground ball rate - and the Royals aren’t a particularly strong sinker hitting team. Tonight’s KC lineup only features four players with an xBA better than .243 versus righties.
FanDuel (-122). Gage Jump has been solid for the A’s in his debut season, but he gets a brutal matchup Friday night. The rookie will face the Nationals who boast a league leading .789 OPS against lefties this season. Jump has struggled in the extreme hitting conditions in Sacramento, pitching to a 6.20 ERA, and staying under this line in 4/5 outings. With the bullpen rested, look for a quick hook for the rookie if things get out of hand early.
DraftKings / Caesar’s. With only one game on the docket for Thursday, we might as well jump on this line early. Aaron Nola is under this line in 14/19 starts, including all eight home outings, where his ERA is 6.81. His pitch efficieny takes a nosedive against lefties, as his walk rate balloons to 10.8%, and his pitches per plate appearance 4.20. The Mets likely start 6-7 lefties, and had been hitting well (although nothing is given coming out of the break). But Nola has lost the trust of Don Mattingly, as he’s been pulled at 86 pitches or less in seven of his last eleven starts.
Caesar’s. Mackenzie Gore stepped up for the Rangers to start on short rest today, but I can’t see Texas pushing him to the limit, with the bullpen rested enough. Gore struggles enough with his pitch efficiency (3.99 per plate appearance) that he’d likely need to remain highly effective to finish five innings today. This will be Gore’s first MLB start on three days rest.
DraftKings. This is a good spot for Robert Gasser, who is cleared this line in five of his eight starts this season. Following the Brewers doubleheader yesterday, and Jacob Misiorowski being scratched with fatigue today, Gasser will be relied upon to eat innings in the first half finale. The Pirates are a strikeout haven for left-handed pitchers, with a 26% K%. Look for Gasser to have a longer leash today.
DraftKings. Noah Schultz is under this line in 7/10 starts this season. With a .227 average allowed and 13.8% walk rate, Schultz has only allowed a hit every 5.4 plate appearances, despite his gaudy 6.00 ERA. He’ll face the Athletics in Chicago today, the latter part being key: the A’s have drastic home/road splits against lefties, hitting only .207 on the road (.286 at home). Schultz shouldn’t have a long leash today with the All-Star break looming (and long relief options rested) - I have the tall lefty projected safely at five hits allowed.
FanDuel. I like this spot for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The All-Star has cleared this line in 11/16 starts. The Diamondbacks are tough on paper against righties, but are putting out a lineup that features six players with above average K% against right-handed pitching. This includes five righties, the split Yamamoto dominates, especially at home (32% K%).
FanDuel. Reynaldo Lopez is built up to 80 pitches, as the Braves look to continue to stretch him out to fill out their injured rotation. Averaging a punch out every 18 pitches, this is a light line for Lopez, who has always possessed a strikeout-inducing arsenal. The Cardinals are tough, but more gettable for righties.
DraftKings. Peter Lambert has been a bright spot for the Astros in the rotation. He’s stayed under this line in 11/14 starts, only allowing 60 hits in 80 innings. His xBA of .209 is elite (85th percentile) - he’s a fly ball enduring pitcher who avoids line drives and barrels. That’ll play well at Globe Life Field - a pitcher’s park. Plus, the Rangers are hitting .208 the last two weeks versus righties, and .230 against righties at home this season.
DraftKings. Freddy Peralta is under this outs line in 13/19 starts this season, including each of his last five. Never an efficient pitcher, at 4.05 pitches per plate appearance, Peralta is in the bottom 11th percentile amongst qualifiers. The issue this year is that he’s pitching to a 4.68 ERA. Even with the Red Sox scuffling a bit at the plate, this is a line that Peralta needs too many things to go right for him to go over.
Caesar’s. Shane Bieber has yet to clear this line in any of his appearances this season - majors or minor league rehab assignments included. Typically relying on his pinpoint control, walks have been an issue for Bieber (10.4% rate in the majors, 8.8% in AAA). He’s also been destroyed by right-handed hitters (.475 average allowed across all levels). The Padres can go righty-heavy with six likely in the lineup tonight. With rested long relief options available and the All-Star Break looming, there is no reason to push the oft-injured Bieber.
DraftKings. Robbie Ray has stayed under this line in 14/18 starts this season, including 8/9 at Oracle Park, one of the more pitcher friendly parks in baseball (and Ray is holding opponents to a .189 clip). The Rockies, to their credit, are hitting .261 against lefties outside of Coors this season, but have only mustered ten hits in 43 plate appearances at Coors against Ray this season. I’m counting on the lefty’s stuff to play better at home.