Prop's Picks (1 Live)
Bet365 at -120. If you strip out the game he left early with an injury, Ja Morant is averaging more than 12 rebounds plus assists per game (30.4 minutes). Having come back from said injury and playing 25 minutes three days ago, I do think Morant should be in line for 30 minutes tonight. He’s cleared this line in nine of his last ten full games, and he’ll be facing the Clippers, who allow the fifth most rebounds plus assists to opposing point guards. Morant looked engaged in his first game back, and I’m banking on that to carry over today.
FanDuel. De’Von Achane had crushed this line in each of his last three games, before falling just short in one half against the Jets before leaving with an injury. With no injury designation tonight, I’m expecting a massive workload for the running back. The Steelers not only allow the eighth most running back scrimmage yards, but also allow their opponents the most plays per game. I expect 21-22 touches for Achane, no matter the gamescript. That should put Achane conservatively in the 120s - I’d bet this up to over 114.5.
DraftKings. I’m hopping back on the Darnell Washington train this week. The massive tight-end was over this line in four of five games before leaving last week’s game early with a concussion. Fully cleared and off the injury report, I like Washington today in a great matchup. The Dolphins have been a tight-end funnel all season, allowing the second most yards per game at 68.2. Washington, whose snap and route share has shot upward over the last few weeks, should capitalize against some softer coverages. I’d bet this up to over 23.5 yards.
DraftKings. Since returning from injury, Blake Cashman has cleared this line in six of his last seven, with the lone miss at 9 combined tackles. The Cowboys are a plus opponent, allowing the sixth most tackles per game overall (63), and the third most linebacker opportunities (per PFF data). The Vikings have struggled with time of possession with JJ McCarthy under center, and I like that to continue today against a motivated and improving Cowboys defense. I’d bet this up to -150.
DraftKings. Jalen Johnson has cleared this line in six straight games, including a 14 rebound effort against the 76ers (11 in regulation). The 76ers are allowing the ninth most rebounds per game, and with Joel Embiid manning the middle, Johnson should be in prime position to crash off of his action.
DraftKings. This is a line I’d have considered betting even if Daniel Jones was starting. Michael Pittman Jr. has failed to clear this line in seven of 13 games, and the matchup is brutal. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest receiving yards to outside pass catchers, at the lowest yards per reception (10.31) and yards per route run (1.36). Pittman runs 71% of his routes out wide, and when he does venture into the slot, his average depth of target is only 5.4 yards. And oh yeah, the Colts are starting 44-year old Philip Rivers, whose arm strength was below average back in 2020. I have Pittman’s long reception projected around 14 yards. I’d bet this down to under 15.5.
DraftKings. Rookie Chimere Dike has evolved into a reliable target for Cam Ward and the despondent Titans offense. Without Calvin Ridley, Dike has cleared this line in four of six games this season. Running 68% of his snaps out of the slot (68% of his catches, and 72% of his targets, per PFF) - he’ll face a 49ers defense that’s allowed the most catches to that alignment this season (8 per game) at the second highest catch rate (77%, per Fantasy Points Data). The Titans have been dialing up more screens for the dynamic receiver, with nine designed reads over the last six games, as well as a 21% first read rate.
DraftKings. Despite Colby Parkinson coming on strong with Tyler Higbee on injured reserve, this is a high line for the tight end. Parkinson only has two catches this season that have exceeded 16 yards, and his average depth of target is only 3.0 yards. Running 75% of his routes in-line, the Lions have allowed the second fewest catches (1.6 per game) and the lowest yards after catch per reception (2.62) to that alignment this season. With Detroit running man coverage at the second highest rate, I’m expecting a ton of targets going towards Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, who both thrive against man.
FanDuel. Wan’Dale Robinson has cleared this line in eight of thirteen games this season, including five of the last six games started by Jaxson Dart. With the second most catches out of the slot in the NFL, he will face the soft defense of the Commanders. Washington has allowed the fourth most receptions per game out of the slot (7.5) at the third highest catch rate (76%) and third highest target rate (35.2%).
DraftKings. Rookie safety Malachi Moore has cleared this line in four of his last six games. Now an every-down fixture in the secondary, the uptick in tackles coincides with Moore lining up more in the tackle box. Proficient against both the run and in coverage, I like the matchup here. Not only are the Jaguars a top four opponents for safety tackles (per PFF data), but the Jets should struggle to hold on the ball (even more than usual) with rookie Brady Cook making his first start under center.
FanDuel. Chase Brown had seven catches on seven targets against the Ravens two weeks ago. Granted, Joe Burrow did throw 46 passes in that game, but I do like Brown in this matchup. The Ravens defense has allowed a lot of running back receiving volume of late, and Burrow will once again be without Tee Higgins. The rest of the Bengals receivers are low volume, and Mike Gesicki has a tough matchup against Kyle Hamilton. Brown is now over this line in four of the last five with Joe Burrow and without Tee Higgins since becoming a starter last year - and 16 total catches in two of those instances against the Ravens.
FanDuel. Since Week 10 (the game after the Kyle Monangai breakout), the Bears have the third highest neutral gamescript run rate at 53% (per RotoViz). The Bears lead the NFL at 66 offensive plays per game, and the Browns have allowed their opponents 64, 64 and 75 offensive plays in Shedeur Sanders’ three starts. Given the weather and the Browns injuries on the offensive line, I love the Bears to dominate time of possession in this game. Monangai, who has out carried Swift each of the last two games, should be poised to clear this line. Even assuming a 50/50 carry split would get us home, as I have the Bears running backs conservatively projected at 29 rush attempts in total.
DraftKings at -130. Stephon Castle has cleared this rebound line in 13 of 14 full games he’s played this season. Even with Victor Wembanyama returning to play limited minutes tonight, Castle should continue to crash the boards from the wing. The Thunder are league average in rebounds allowed (53.5 is 15th most), and I expect Castle to come out aggressive in the NBA Cup semifinals.
DraftKings. This line is too low for Brandon Williams, even in his role off the bench. Williams is averaging 14.9 combined points plus assists in just 21.6 minutes per game. Even off the bench, he should still see 20-24 minutes tonight, especially as D’Angelo Russell is out. Great matchup too.