Prop's Picks (1 Live)
FanDuel. Adem Bona has cleared this points + rebounds line in 11 of the last 17 games he’s played without Joel Embiid. He should find success tonight against a Jazz frontcourt that’s allowed the sixth most P+R to opposing centers over the last thirty games. Utah ranks in the bottom tier of virtually every way Bona accrues his counting stats.
Caesar’s. Chet Holmgren has remained under this line in nine of his last thirteen games, and in 15/25 with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Isaiah Hartenstein, both of whom are expected to play after restring for injury maintenance purposes last night. Holmgren gets a tough test against the Knicks tonight - New York protects the paint well (sixth fewest points allowed, which maintains even without Mitch Robinson) and permit the third fewest assists. I don’t see this as a volume spot for Holmgren, who’d have to post elite shooting numbers from long range to clear this. I’d bet this down to under 18.5.
FanDuel. Precious Achiuwa has re-emerged into a significant role in the Kings front court. Sacramento is without Domantas Sabonis, Dylan Cardwell and Kris Murray, leaving Achiuwa and Maxine Raynaud to lead the charge down low. The Kings rotation can’t be fully trusted, but Achiuwa’s rebounding and defense has earned praised from Kings coach Doug Christie, who continues to look fr anything that works for this team. Achiuwa is over this line in four of his last five, and 12/17 overall this season with 25+ minutes. Thriving on the offensive glass, Achiuwa should find success against the Suns who allow the fifth most offensive rebounds.
FanDuel. I’m going to buy low on Dylan Harper’s points plus assists. Coming off an underwhelming 12 P+A effort in a rare Spurs blowout loss, the matchup against the injury depleted Sixers serves as a prime bounce back spot. The rookie has cleared this line in nine of his last eleven games, and will face a Philly defense that’s below average across the board against scoring guards. After a lull in the middle of his rookie year, Harper’s rotation is back up to 20-28 minutes. When playing at least 18 minutes against a bottom 12 at-rim defense (Sixers are 26th), Harper has cleared this line in 13/18 games.
FanDuel. In the last three games he played without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace really stepped up into a primary role. He averaged 16.7 FGA and 13.7 potential assists across the three games, all three in tougher matchups than he’ll face tonight. The Bulls play at the league’s fifth fastest pace, and allow the third most assists. Wallace should cash in on both stats as a spot up shooter and in transition - the Bulls rank 21st against both playtype. I’d bet this to over 20.5.
DraftKings. I have to jump back on Gui Santos’ over here, despite missing by one against the Lakers. He’s cleared this points line in 11 of his last 12 games, and the Warriors are dealing with even more injuries tonight (Will Richard is out, and Gary Payton II is questionable). Santos’ rotation has him at 30+ minutes - even in a slower matchup, I like him to find the volume to hit this. I’d bet this to 13.5 for a partial unit.
Caesar’s. AJ Green has cleared this points line in 16/24 games against teams that rank in the bottom half of the NBA in both catch and shoot defense and three pointers allowed. The Celtics rank 23rd and 25th, respectively, which should allow Green ample opportunity from behind the arc tonight, even if Giannis Antetokounmpo suits up. As an alternative, I’d bet over 2.5 three pointers made.
FanDuel. Jaylen Brown has cleared this rebounds line in 18 of his last 21 games. The 76ers allow the 8th most rebounds per game, and it’s likely that Brown is not too involved defensively with the primary action from Tyrese Maxey. Averaging 13.8 rebound chances over his last 21 games, and with the Celtics centers having to battle for position with the elite rebounding Andre Drummond, I’ll gladly hop on this line.
DraftKings. This is a high line for Jaylen Wells, who is under this total in 24 of his last 30 games. Primarily a spot up shooter and secondary scorer, this is a brutal matchup against the Pacers who are second in defending catch and shot opportunities. Wells has struggled when the Grizzlies lack a primary facilitator, which will be the case tonight. I’d bet this at under 14.5 points or under 17.5 points plus rebounds.
FanDuel. Bear with me on this trend: Jamal Murray has cleared this combined line in 13/17 full games with Nikola Jokic and without Aaron Gordon, when facing a bottom 15 defense against pick and roll ball handlers. The Timberwolves rank 30th in that category, and Murray is 3/3 against them this season. It’s a familiar opponent, and a defensive scheme that the point guard has handled with ease. Playing at home, in a national TV spot, I like Murray to show out.
FanDuel at -122. Saddiq Bey has now cleared this line in 5/6 games without Trey Murphy, who remains out today. Dejounte Murray will also sit out tonight, which should give Bey and Zion Williamson the keys to the offense. Bey is coming off a 42 point performance against the Jazz on Thursday, and they are the perfect matchup for his playstyle. Utah ranks last in both spot up and transition points allowed. Over 22.5 points plus assists is a solid alternative here.
Caesar’s. Al Horford has remained under this line in six of eight games with Draymond Green (probable) active, and without Steph Curry. One of these instances was against the Lakers three weeks ago, when Horford only mustered 8 PRA in 22 minutes. Los Angeles has allowed the second fewest PRA to opposing centers, and the Warriors opted to run more small-ball lineups in that game. Kristaps Porzingis did practice yesterday, but I’m jumping on this line even before we know his status, as I like it either way. I’d bet it down to 17.5.
FanDuel at -118. Gui Santos has cleared this points plus assists line in nine of his last eleven games. Barring foul trouble, he should assume a significant role tonight, as Warriors lack size on the wing (important against the Lakers). The Lakers run below average defensively in almost every category - Santos should deliver this on this line with 26+ minutes.
FanDuel. Tari Eason has cleared this rebound line in each of the last 11 games against teams outside the top 11 in rebounds allowed, when he’s played just 24+ minutes. The Heat, due to their breakneck pace, allow the second most boards per game. Eason should be to capitalize with Jabari Smith ruled out today, meaning the Rockets likely run smaller with Reed Sheppard entering the starting lineup.