Prop's Picks (4 Live)
Prop's Past Picks
FanDuel. Stephon Castle has made the leap in his sophomore season in the NBA. The former first round pick is averaging 26.8 points plus assists per game, clearing this line in eight of eleven games. The return of De’Aaron Fox (coinciding with the loss of Dylan Harper to injury) has not impacted Castle’s production. The UConn product has at least 29 points plus assists in all three games with Fox, tracking at similar usage, touch time and drives per game. The Spurs will take on the Warriors again - Golden State going small benefited Castle, with the defense focused on Victor Wembanyama. I’d bet this up to over 25.5.
FanDuel. Brandon Williams has cleared this line with just 20 minutes played in thirteen of his nineteen opportunities over the last three seasons with the Mavericks, including four of five this season. With Anthony Davis and PJ Washington both out, I’m expecting the point guard to continue to see significant minutes as the starting point guard for Dallas.
DraftKings. Norman Powell has cleared this points line in six of nine games, in his first season with the Heat. That includes three of four games without Bam Adebayo, who has been ruled out again tonight. Powell, who scores more than half of his points in transition and via spot up shooting, should have a plus matchup against the Knicks who are a bottom ten defense against both playtypes. Andrew Wiggins likely draws the OG Anunoby matchup defensively - another plus for Powell. And with this being an NBA Cup game, I wouldn’t be shocked if Heat coach Erik Spoelstra bumped up Powell’s minutes slightly. I’d bet this up to over 23.5 points.
B365 at -115. Rick Carlisle has his hands full trying to figure out how to get the most out of this Pacers team without Tyrese Haliburton. While he’s tinkered with his rotations, I do like Isaiah Jackson to see between 20 and 28 minutes tonight. Having made his way back from an Achilles tendon rupture, Jackson has cleared this line in six of his last seven games. It’s a solid matchup against the Suns - Phoenix is a bottom seven team against both putback points and pick and roll-men. Jackson is a menace on the offensive glass (11th highest offensive rebounding rate in the NBA, at 13%) - I like him to cash in on that tonight.
DraftKings. Of the Raptors four scoring threats, RJ Barrett should be in the best position to succeed tonight. The Cavs force the action off of primary handlers, which should lead to Barrett garnering spot up attempts and off-ball cuts. Overall, RJ has cleared this line in eight of 11 games this season.
DraftKings. Aaron Gordon is over in six of nine games this season, and is averaging 19 points per game since the All-Star Break last season. While I don’t love it being a back-to-back, it’s a plus matchup against the Clippers who have been bleeding points off of secondary action.
FanDuel at +104. Dyson Daniels has now cleared this line in five of six games without Trae Young this season. In those contests, he’s averaging 13.5 potential assists per game. Daniels has taken on the Trae Young role as the primary driver for the Hawks offense, and should be able to exploit the poor pick and roll defense of the Kings. Daniels is averaging 15.7 drives per game with a 61% pass rate over his last six. Sacramento is allowing the third most points to roll-men in the pick and roll, and the seventh most assists per game overall.
FanDuel at -113. Let’s keep riding the Kon Knueppel train. The impressive rookie has shone without Lamelo Ball, registering at least 29 points plus rebounds over the last four games. He’ll take on a Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Bucks team that’s struggled defensively with their superstar, and I’m expecting the floor to open up even more without him.
DraftKings. Ajay Mitchell has cleared this line in eight of eleven games this season. Without Jalen Williams, Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins, Mitchell should once again be in line for around 30-32 minutes. He’s thrived as a secondary creator for the Thunder, with a 24.5% usage rate, which is second behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Warriors should be relatively matchup-neutral, but this line is just too low given Mitchell’s current role. I’d bet this up to over 23.5.
Caesar’s. Nic Claxton has come alive for the Nets, clearing this line in the last five of six games. He’s seen an uptick of front court touches (34.5) and time of possession (2.5) in that span, as the Nets have been using him as a hub to initiate offense. Overall, Claxton has pushed past this line in all four games against teams outside the top 12 in paint points allowed. The Raptors rank 24th in that category, including the second highest frequency allowed of shots at the rim. Toronto also rank 22nd in assists allowed per game, and 27th in points plus assists allowed to centers.
DraftKings. Lauri Markkanen has actually cleared this line in five of his nine games this season, but that was a product of some plus matchups. The Timberwolves locked the sharpshooter down on Friday, only allowing Markkanen a 16 PRA stat line, in 21 minutes due to a blowout. While the minutes are likely to stabilize today, this is a brutal matchup schematically for Markkanen. The Timberwolves limit off-ball action, which is where Markkanen typically thrives (82% of his made baskets are assisted). I’d bet this down to under 31.5 PRA.