Prop Bet Guy
Doug
PropBetGuy burst into the public consciousness in 2020 and quickly developed a massive following. Actively posting and recapping all of his bets on Twitter/X, making regular appearances on VSIN and ESPN Radio, PropBetGuy became synonymous nationwide with sharp, transparent and profitable prop betting. A former daily contributor at Action Network, he bets almost exclusively on player props in the NFL, NBA, MLB, CBB and CFB. Since the inception of his social media presence, PropBetGuy has recorded a profit of over 280 betting units, at a 6 percent ROI. Almost all of his bets are 1-unit plays, with rare 1.5-unit plays. PropBetGuy is coming off a terrific 2025 NFL season at SportsLine in which he went 131-101 (plus 12.85 units). Entering 2026, PropBetGuy sported a career 57 percent record on NFL player props (+122 units at a 7.5% ROI) and a 58 percent percent mark on college basketball player props (+52 units, 9 percent ROI). He had profited 67 units on NBA player props and 52 units on MLB player props as well. Now you will find the vast majority of PropBetGuy's plays, including his top bets, only on SportsLine. For PropBetGuy media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Prop's Picks
4 Live Picks
Luther Burden looks to build off his 8-catch Week 6. …
Darryn Peterson should find himself in position to start strong. …
Ausar Thompson cleared this line in three of four games versus the Celtics last season. …
Jalen Williams averaged 27 PRA in just 28 minutes per game last season. …
Caesar’s. Stefon Diggs is under this line in three of four games this season. He comes into this game questionable with a balky hamstring, and if he does play, he has a brutal matchup. The 49ers have only allowed 17 catches of at least 10 air yards this season on a league worst 37% catch rate. Only four of those catches were from the slot, where Diggs lines up for 60% of his routes. And on shorter throws (ten or less air yards), the 49ers only allow 5.3 yards after the catch per reception (13th best). Bet this down to under 16.5 yards.
FanDuel. With Deebo Samuel out and Christian Kirk not yet ready to return, I expect Brandin Cooks to see his snap share rise tonight. While this is clearly a projection, as Cooks has only caught one pass as a 49er, there is a WR2 sized hole in the 49er offense against an awful Commander secondary. Washington’s run defense is stout, and I expect Brock Purdy to have to air it out. This is a short line for someone like cooks who can easily get downfield and clear this with just one catch
FanDuel. Rachaad White will be in line for a larger workload tonight without Jacory Crowley-Merritt available. While that likely means White will absorb most of the running work, I don’t think the Commanders will have much success against the 49ers top five rush defense per DVOA and EPA (per FTN). Where the 49ers do allow volume is running back receptions at 7.4 per game - the most in the NFL. One running back has at least three catches in each game against the 49ers, with six overall in their five games. Austin Ekeler could poach some receiving work from White, but I don’t see him absorbing a huge workload at this point.
FanDuel. This one is simple - Savion Williams has been activated off injured reserve, and I expect the Packers to get him a touch or two, at the least. Williams impressed in camp and was poised for a role in the offense as the fourth receiver, but his preseason injury derailed that. Now with Jayden Reed and Skyy Moore both on injured reserve, this is a great opportunity to work Williams back into game action.
DraftKings. I like this spot for Evan Williams’ tackles + assists. The safety has cleared this line in 3/5 games, with 46 total tackles in five games. Splitting his time in the box and as a deep safety, Williams is just as proficient against the run (21 of his total tackles) as the pass. I’m counting on the Cowboys offense to run more efficiently than last week, as the Packers allow a healthy 67% completion percentage to wide receivers (the focal point of their offense).
Caesar’s. It’s time to call a spade a spade: Brock Bowers is a wide receiver masquerading as a tight end. The third year Raider has 24 catches on 34 targets in just three games, lining up out wide or in the slot for 84% of his snaps. Bowers commands a 26% target share and a 39% first read rate (per Fantasy Points Data. Facing the Bills today, he’ll square off against a defense that has allowed 16.8 receptions per game to opposing first reads - the second most in the NFL. With the expectation that this will be a high scoring affair, look for the Raiders to have to air it out and pepper their preferred option with targets.
DraftKings. Since Terrence Ferguson went down with an injury, Tyler Higbee has stepped up as the main receiving tight end for the Rams. He has 18 catches over the last three games on 23 targets, running a route on at least 63% of pass snaps in each game. When he plays at least 35% of the snaps, he’s cleared this line in 11/16 games over the last three seasons. He’ll face a brutal Cardinals defense that allows six receptions per game to tight-ends. Higbee should have no problem catching three balls before this game potentially gets out of hand - I like this bet even at over 3.5 for +135 or better.
FanDuel. I love this spot for Luther Burden. He’s cleared this line in 3/5 games - missing last week by one yards (with subpar QB play) and in a rainstorm against the Vikings defense. He’ll face the Falcons pass funnel - Atlanta has allowed the sixth most WR yards per game, with 11/13 WRs going over their yards prop. They’ll be tough to run on whether Kyle Monangai suits up or not. Schematically, Atlanta runs single-high coverages 64% of the time (fourth highest rate) - Burden torches these looks. He’s averaging 2.40 yards per route run this year (2.64 if you exclude the Tyson Bagent game), and was at 3.35 last season fully with Caleb Williams. I’d bet this to over 52.5 yards.
FanDuel. Derrick Henry has only cleared this line twice this season, there is plenty of reason for optimism in this matchup. The Browns have struggled against the run, allowing the seventh most rush yards to running backs per game (106.8) and ranking 28th in adjusted line yards (per FTN). Specifically against zone runs, the Browns are fourth worst, allowing 5.4 yards per carry. This is where Henry excels, averaging 4.7 YPC. The Browns also have several injuries to key players within their front seven defensively. It’s a fantastic spot for the Ravens to pound the rock. I have Henry breaking 100 yards on the ground and would bet this to over 96.5.
DraftKings. He burned me last week, but I’m coming right back to Tyler Warren on his long reception prop. He wound up seeing four intermediate targets out of his nine, in a game where Daniel Jones had to drop back 45 times. I don’t see that being the case against the lowly Titans - teams are averaging just 29 pass attempts against them. And one of the few things this Titans team does well is defend tight ends, allowing the third fewest yards per game (29.4) on the second lowest yards per reception (6.4). They rank 7th in FTN’s DVOA against the position - Robert Saleh’s zone heavy Cover 3/4/6 scheme has been brutal against tight-ends for years.
DK/Caesar’s. Devaughn Vele has remained under this line in each of his last three games. Running most of his routes out of the slot, he’ll have the toughest matchup of all Saints pass catchers today, facing off against Giants cornerback Dru Phillips. The Giants defensive back has only allowed 51 receiving yards on ten catches across five games this season (a long catch of 13 yards). Olave and Juwan Johnson stand to benefit more from their matchups, and it’s possible the dormant Saints run game can actually move the ball against the Giants struggling run defense. I’d bet this down to under 17.5 yards.