The Bills have allowed 29 points or more three times this season...

Amon-Ra St. Brown has gone under this total in three of four games, but I like his matchup this week against the dreadful Arizona secondary. The Cardinals have already allowed four receivers to post 80+ yards. They really struggle to defend the slot, and the Lions move St. Brown all over, so he should be able to exploit this weakness. Detroit's defense is a mess, and I doubt it gets fixed in a week. Look for another high-scoring game with the Lions and plenty of opportunities for St. Brown to go over this total.

The Bucs are the type of team Dallas typically rolls at home. The Cowboys have played well since Week 1, and while the defense is still a concern, the Bucs aren't built to exploit it right now. Undrafted free agent Jalon Daniels struggled in his NFL debut against the Packers as expected, and the Bucs were held to 4.5 yards per play. It's not Daniels' fault, he has no business starting in the NFL right now. If the Cowboys put up 27 on Thursday, they should cover this number comfortably at home.

I'm going to buy low on Christian McCaffrey here. McCaffrey has 10, 10, and 15 carries in his first three games. However, the 49ers led by double digits in all of those games, so they didn't need to lean on McCaffrey. CMC grew up a huge Broncos fan because his dad played for the franchise, and this is his first time facing Denver. I think this sets up for a big McCaffrey game. The Broncos have struggled to stop the run early in the season, allowing 130 yards per game to running backs. Three backs have already exceeded this total against Denver. McCaffrey hasn't needed to be the offense's focal point yet, but I expect that to change on Sunday. Play up to 67.5.

I love the Jets in this spot getting over a field goal. The Bears were sky-high against the Eagles on Monday night with their third-string QB, Case Keenum, starting. I think it will be hard to generate that same emotion against the Jets. New York is 1-2, but really just a couple of plays away from being 3-0. Geno Smith is playing well, and the Eagles had a lot of success running the football before falling behind in the second half. I think the Jets can shorten this game, limit Chicago's offensive possessions, and keep this within three points.

I played Denver last week, and while the bet cashed, I actually thought Jacksonville was the better team. The Jags didn't put the game away when they had the chance, which let the Broncos seize momentum in the fourth quarter and steal the win. I like Jacksonville to bounce back at home this week. The Patriots beat an average Steelers team, although I still wasn't overly impressed with the performance. Even though the Jags lost in Denver, I view them as a legit Super Bowl contender. I'll lay under a field goal early with Jacksonville at home. I think this number might get to 3 or 3.5 during the week.

I really liked the Broncos and Chargers entering the season, but both laid an egg in Week 1. Denver didn't match Kansas City's intensity in Patrick Mahomes' return from a knee injury. But what really stood out was that the Broncos' defense missed the most tackles in a game since 2018. That issue will get fixed. Denver's defense is too talented to play that way moving forward. Bo Nix looked dreadful, but we all know you can't overreact to one game in the NFL. I thought Jacksonville was a bit undervalued entering the season, although I don't believe this line should be below three. I still expect the Broncos to be tough at home and think they'll rebound on Sunday.

I'm always looking to back good teams in Week 2 who looked flat in the opener. No team fits that theory better than the Chargers. Credit to Arizona's coaching staff for having the Cardinals ready to play, but the Chargers looked like they were in slow motion. Jim Harbaugh said he should have played his starters more in the preseason, and I expect Los Angeles to be more focused on Sunday. I'm projecting Ladd McConkey to be out, but I expect the Chargers' defense to dominate here after the Raiders averaged just over 4.0 yards per play against what I think is the worst team in the NFL. If the Chargers won last week, this line is -9. I'll take LA to roll at home.

Tetairoa McMillan's yardage totals are still too low. He easily went over 57.5 last week against the Bears with 75 yards on five receptions. Going back to 2025, McMillan has exceeded this total in six of his last seven games. I expect Atlanta's defense to be tougher against the run than the pass this year, so look for Bryce Young to have another good game on Sunday. Play McMillan's over receiving yards up to 59.5.

All the talk is about Patrick Mahomes returning for Week 1 but I'm more interested in the big uglies. I expect the Broncos to dominate this game in the trenches. Denver has my top-rated offensive line entering the season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs could start undrafted Kahlil Benson at right tackle. Benson may end up being a good player but an undrafted free agent protecting a QB coming off an ACL injury in Week 1 isn't ideal. I give Denver's vaunted pass rush a big edge in this matchup and expect a lower-scoring game. I'll grab the +3 now in case the number goes down closer to kickoff.

Half unit. The Cardinals enter the season with a lot of issues. One is the lack of talent and depth in the secondary. Slot receivers should eat Arizona alive this season and Ladd McConkey is priced a little low in Week 1. There is always the fear of Los Angeles getting a big early lead and shutting it down, although considering these guys no longer get much action in the preseason, I expect Jim Harbaugh to keep his foot on the gas a little longer. Play up to 53.5.

The Panthers will begin the season without starting LT Ikem Ekwonu and starting RT Taylor Moton. I like to look for offensive line issues early in the season because most NFL teams have a big drop-off from starters to backups on the line. Carolina is one of those teams. I also believe the Bears are a little undervalued here. I expect Chicago's defense to improve, while the offense takes another step forward with most of the players in Ben Johnson's system for the second year. Look for Caleb Williams and company to start the 2026 season with a win.

I'm in the camp that thinks the Saints will be contenders in the NFC South this year. However, New Orleans has a tough opener against a salty Lions team coming off a disappointing season. The Saints are an exciting, young team, although they are far from a finished product. I expect them to get better as the year goes on. Look for Dan Campbell's squad to get back to being physical and dominate this game in the trenches, especially in the second half. I like Detroit at home laying less than a touchdown.

The Seahawks' defense is tough but the one area the Patriots can exploit is utilizing the tight ends. Seattle allowed the sixth most yards to tight ends during the regular season. In two playoff games, Jake Tonges put up 59 yards and Colby Parkinson went for 62. Hunter Henry went over 36.5 yards 11 times this season and I expect him to be a big part of the Pats' offensive gameplan. Look for this number to go up in the next two weeks, so I recommend taking it early.

TreVeyon Henderson only got three carries in the AFC Championship versus Denver but this number feels like an overreaction to that game. It's clear Rhamondre Stevenson is the Patriots lead back in the playoffs, although Henderson still easily cleared this total against the Chargers and Texans when he got 21 combined carries. Henderson is also a big-play threat, so he doesn't need a lot of carries to reach 17 yards. The rookie RB went over this number in 16 of 20 games (80%). I'll take a shot on a total I believe is a few yards too low in the Super Bowl.