This is a buy low spot on the Vikings at home. The Bears keep finding a way to win games and I don't want to gloss over that. although I feel their luck in close games has to run out soon. Ironically, the one close game they lost came in Week 1 to Minnesota. Look for J.J. McCarthy to get going and have one of his better days against a Chicago defense that has allowed an average of 296 passing yards in their last three games. Lay up to -3.

The Bills played about as poorly as they could last week in Miami. Now they return home to face a Bucs team that just isn't the same on offense without some of their top weapons. I expect a much better effort out of Buffalo's offense and I don't think a banged up Baker Mayfield will be able to keep up. Bet up to -6.5.

Cook has gone over this total in six of eight games this season, including Week 3 vs. Miami when he put up 108 yards on 19 carries. The Dolphins allow 119 yards per game to running backs - third most in the NFL. I expect a heavy dose of Cook on Sunday in a game where the Bills should be playing from ahead in the second half.

It feels like the market is a little slow to catch up to Pierce's production over the last three games. During that stretch, Pierce has 13 receptions for 282 yards on 28 targets. Overall, Pierce has gone over this total in five of seven games this season. I think he keeps it rolling against the Falcons in Berlin.

I'm buying low on the Chargers. I know it was only Miami but the offense played better overall than it did in losses to the Commanders and Giants. It's not easy to fix injuries on the offensive line and while that will be an issue all season, I like what I saw last week. The Colts have been impressive this season, although they are just 1-1 on the road with the win coming over lowly Tennessee. I'll back the Chargers to win a close game at home.

I like this spot for Seattle. Jacksonville is coming off the emotional win over the Chiefs and while Trevor Lawrence played well on the final drive, it overshadowed an otherwise inconsistent performance. I think it's a good matchup for a Seahawks team that already has two road wins this season. I'll back Seattle as a short dog.

Keon Coleman got lost in the Sauce last week and that is creating value on his yardage prop for Thursday. I bet Coleman over 750.5 receiving yards this season and I'm not expecting his yardage props to be in the 40s much longer. Look for Coleman to bounce back against a suspect Dolphins' secondary.

I'm high on the Falcons this season. I bet Atlanta to win the NFC South and they really let one get away in the opener against the Bucs. The Falcons are beat up at receiver but while Drake London is iffy, I do expect Darnell Mooney to play in Week 2. I think this will be a close game and like Atlanta getting over a field goal in this spot vs. a rookie quarterback coming off a short week.

I'm buying low on TreVeyon Henderson. The Patriots abandoned the running game in the second half last week, resulting in Henderson getting just five carries, although he did average 5.4 yards. Rhamondre Stevenson plodded his way to 15 yards on seven carries. It's clear to anyone with eyes that Henderson is the better option and he has a good matchup this week against a Dolphins' defense that gave up 156 yards on 40 carries to the Colts in the opener. I'll bet Henderson has a bigger role in New England's offense on Sunday.

The Bills won't lose many games this season but I won't be surprised if they start 0-1. While both teams are serious Super Bowl contenders, I have the Ravens atop of my power rankings entering the season. I make Baltimore a slight favorite in this matchup and believe the line will flip closer to kickoff. I also like how the Ravens lost at Buffalo in last year's playoffs and sat with it all offseason. Now they get the rematch in Week 1. I'll back Baltimore on the road to pull the mild upset.

This number is a little low for Troy Franklin entering his second season. By all accounts, Franklin had a great offseason and will battle with Marvin Mims for targets behind Courtland Sutton at the WR position. Franklin didn't have a huge impact as a rookie but still went over this total eight times, including four of his final seven games. We probably need just two receptions to cash this over, a mark Franklin hit 11 times last season.

This is my top Super Bowl prop. If you follow me on social media, you know last year my top prop was Kyle Juszczyk over 1.5 receiving yards that cashed on the second play of the game. This one won't be that easy but I like DeJean to go over 4.5 tackles/assists. The Eagles play nickel defense 82% of the time since Week 6 and I think he'll be around Kelce in the slot. DeJean has gone over this total in 5 straight and 9 of 10. During the 5-game stretch he's averaging 7.2 T/A. I'll lay some juice now because I think it goes up to 5.5. First play since I joined SL last year I'm posting for more than 1 unit. Good Luck.

I think the Chiefs stopping the Bills' Tush Push is overblown. That wasn't the Tush Push. Allen takes a step back then goes to the left. No one is even pushing him. I have no idea what that was to be honest but it's not the same play the Eagles made famous. If the Eagles are inside the three-yard line, Hurts will get multiple chances to score. He's scored a rushing TD in 12 games this season. I think the odds for Hurts should be closer to -130, so I'll take -115 at FD.

This number is inflated but I don't see any scenario where Allen doesn't use his legs whenever possible with a Super Bowl berth on the line. Allen went for 55 in the first meeting and the Chiefs defense allowed the eighth most rushing yards to quarterbacks during the regular season. I think Allen can get to 50 here. Me, and the rest of the civilized world.

This total feels low for Cook. He's carried the ball 17 and 23 times in Buffalo's two playoff games. Last season, Cook had 18 carries in both of his postseason games. The only way I don't see Cook being a big part of the Bills' offense is if they are getting blown out. I'm not expecting that to happen, so I'll take Cook over 13.5 carries. I won't be surprised if this closes at 15.5 on Sunday.