Thomas's Picks (2 Live)
I just can't get to 5.5 in this game even with the Broncos starting Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. I'm not in the "Patriots are frauds" camp because they faced an easier schedule but the reality is they played two playoff games at home against two of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Broncos would have been favored with Bo Nix, and while he's had a really good season, Denver's defense won't be out on Sunday. I think that unit is good enough to cause a couple of turnovers and keep the Broncos in the game. I expect Sean Payton to protect Stidham and try to get this game into the fourth quarter with a shot to win. I'll take the points.
I went over this number last week and it cashed with Blake Corum finishing with 11 carries. Corum has now gone over this total in five of his last six games. The only time he didn't was against Atlanta when he left early with an injury. In the Bears last four games, they gave up 26, 23, 27 and 21 carries to opposing running backs. Corum and Kyren Williams are rotating series and I expect both backs to be a factor again with freezing temperatures and high winds expected Sunday night. Bet up to 10.5.
This number feels low for Zach Charbonnet. He topped this total in the last three games, recording 10 receptions for 57 yards over that span. One of those games was against the 49ers when he caught four passes for 23 yards. San Francisco allowed the second most receptions per game to opposing running backs (5.5) during the regular season, so I expect Charbonnet to be targeted a few times on Saturday. If that's the case, I like his chances of going over 9.5 yards. Bet up to 10.5.
I think if the Chargers didn't lose both starting offensive tackles they would be the favorites to win the Super Bowl. I do believe those injuries will catch up to them at some point if they advance. However, one area where the Patriots aren't strong is rushing the passer. The Chargers got the best possible first round matchup and that's probably why Jim Harbaugh didn't play anyone in the season finale. I don't think the Pats are a fluke but 3.5 feels high in a matchup I view even on paper. I'll back Justin Herbert and the Chargers' offense to do enough to keep this game within a field goal.
The Bills have one of the worst group of receivers in the NFL, so Josh Allen needs to depend on his tight ends and backs to make plays in the passing game. I expect both Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid to be factors against a Jaguars' defense that gives up the 10th most yards per game to tight ends. Jacksonville allowed 18 tight ends to go over this number during the regular season and Knox has eclipsed 19.5 yards eight times in his last 10 games. Another factor here is third-down back Ty Johnson might not play, so that could open up a couple more targets for the tight ends. I'll back Knox to get at least 20 yards on Sunday.
I expect a heavy dose of both Blake Corum and Kyren Williams in this game. In the first meeting, the two combined for 153 yards on 20 carries and I thought the Rams should have ran the ball more in a close game. Corum has double-digit carries in four of his last five games. The only time he didn't go over this number is when he left with an injury versus the Falcons. The Panthers allow 23 rushing attempts per game to running backs and with the Rams being the largest favorites of Wild Card Weekend, there is certainly a scenario where they are playing with a lead in the second half. Bet up to 10.5.
The Bengals are playing their best football over the last month, covering four of five games since Joe Burrow returned. Cincinnati has proven the last last two weeks it still cares by winning meaningless games over Miami and Arizona by a combined score 82-35. The Browns had their Super Bowl last week by beating the Steelers and Shedeur Sanders is without his starting running back and two top tight ends today. Myles Garrett breaks the sack record but the Bengals roll at home.
I lean Houston in this matchup but the play that really stands out is the Chargers' team total under 20.5. Jim Harbaugh has done a great job finding ways to piece together an offensive line after so many key injuries this season. However, this is the worst possible matchup for a depleted line going against the fierce Texans' pass rush. Houston has held 12 of its 15 opponents to 20 points or less this season. I expect Justin Herbert to be under all kinds of pressure in what should be a low-scoring game.
I like this matchup for Isaiah Likely today. The Bengals are by far the worst defense against tight ends, allowing an average of 96.8 yards per game. Likely has nine catches for 120 yards on 12 targets in his last two games. One of those games was two weeks ago vs. the Bengals where Likely racked up 95 yards. If Likely sees the six targets he has in the last two games, I think he goes over this number.
This is a buy low spot on the Vikings at home. The Bears keep finding a way to win games and I don't want to gloss over that. although I feel their luck in close games has to run out soon. Ironically, the one close game they lost came in Week 1 to Minnesota. Look for J.J. McCarthy to get going and have one of his better days against a Chicago defense that has allowed an average of 296 passing yards in their last three games. Lay up to -3.
The Bills played about as poorly as they could last week in Miami. Now they return home to face a Bucs team that just isn't the same on offense without some of their top weapons. I expect a much better effort out of Buffalo's offense and I don't think a banged up Baker Mayfield will be able to keep up. Bet up to -6.5.
Cook has gone over this total in six of eight games this season, including Week 3 vs. Miami when he put up 108 yards on 19 carries. The Dolphins allow 119 yards per game to running backs - third most in the NFL. I expect a heavy dose of Cook on Sunday in a game where the Bills should be playing from ahead in the second half.
It feels like the market is a little slow to catch up to Pierce's production over the last three games. During that stretch, Pierce has 13 receptions for 282 yards on 28 targets. Overall, Pierce has gone over this total in five of seven games this season. I think he keeps it rolling against the Falcons in Berlin.