This line has come down significantly, and now that it's under 8 points, we've reached a buy on the Buckeyes. While Miami will present a significant test for Ohio State -- first-round winners went undefeated last year, and OSU hasn't played in 25 days -- the No. 2 seed is a tremendous defensive team. That's a scary proposition for Carson Beck, who is tough to trust against mediocre defenses. OSU is allowing 8 points per game this season and gave up 19 per game in last year's playoff. Either is good enough to get the job done Wednesday night.
Now that this line is Ohio State -7.5 (-110), I have to take a shot. The Buckeyes are giving up just 8.2 points per game this season, which is tied with the 2011 Alabama defense for the best since at least 1995. I love the matchup of Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia against mistake-prone Miami quarterback Carson Beck. Meanwhile, I trust that Buckeyes coach Ryan Day has addressed the offense's pass protection issues over the team's extended break since the Big Ten Championship Game. I don't expect Ohio State will need to score a ton of points to cover.
We might have seen a sneak preview of tonight's scoreline in the most-recent games involving these sides featuring top-ten defenses. Ohio State's nation's-best stop unit looks especially airtight, and it will take a much-smoother performance from Carson Beck and the Miami offense than we saw int he first round vs. Texas A&M to envision the Canes doing much damage tonight. On the other hand, Miami's stop unit, another top ten scoring defense, completely flustered Texas A&M's Marcel Reed with its speed in the first round, and did not like the reaction of Ohio State's frosh QB Julian Sayin in the Big Ten title game vs. Indiana when things weren't going so swimmingly. Play Miami-Ohio State Under
Ohio State has faced two great defensive fronts this season, and struggled against both. Miami's defensive line is one of the best in the country and should slow the Buckeyes offense down enough to keep the Hurricanes in this one.
I was at the 2003 National Championship Game between these two schools and the amount of talent on that field was ridiculous. But I digress -- both teams are coming off lackluster offensive performances in their last games, scoring only 10 points each. Don’t expect the Miami offense to find better footing in this contest. The Buckeyes have allowed 16 or fewer points in every game and I have a hard time seeing the Hurricanes exceeding that mark in the Cotton Bowl. Look for Ryan Day to open up the playbook and for OSU to cruise to at least a two-score victory.
