Cody Bradford struck out five batters in 4.1 innings last time out, throwing 70 pitches in his first start in 600+ days. He came out of that start in great shape according to both Bradford and his manager, so there should still be some restrictions tonight but far less than last time out. This Angels team generally has 5-6 solid strikeout matchups of 25% or worse in their lineup, which should provide ample opportunities to pickup some strikeouts if he can get through five innings at least. Hoping we get a few more whiffs from him and potentially bumping up his breaking pitch usage, but the fastball / changeup combo should be good enough to get strikeouts vs these hitters.

Sean Burke had been great with his strikeout numbers for much of June and July before a misstep in Boston last time out when he worked just 4.1 innings. He now gets an extra day of rest and the White Sox bullpen has been in shambles since late last week, having also used a bunch of arms on Sunday thanks to a rain delay ending Davis Martin's day at one inning. Burke simply has to eat some innings tonight, and while I like the over 17.5 outs as well, if he completes six or more innings I want to have some bets on the alternate levels for strikeouts with his potential upside in this matchup. 8,9,10 Ks for 1u total.

The one consistent thing that MacKenzie Gore has done in each of his appearances against the Angels this year is pickup strikeouts. He had seven in both starts, with the 2nd start being a rough one, covering just five innings and allowing seven runs on nine hits. But as you dig in, most of the damage came from one man, Jo Adell, who hit two homers and drove in five runs. Adell has since been traded, and Gore gets another right handed heavy lineup, where he's still finding strikeouts around a 27% rate with around a 14% swinging strike rate. Kumar Rocker had a short outing yesterday, so there is no long man if Gore gets in trouble early, so I think they push him.

The Orioles are 7-1 in Trevor Rogers' last eight starts and got two huge home runs from Pete Alonso on Sunday to salvage a win in Texas before heading to Minnesota. Now the Orioles face off with Dean Kremer who they just traded to the Twins, and even if he does well he generally doesn't get too deep into games. This is a Twins bullpen in the bottom 5 of baseball and I'm going to keep riding the Orioles train when Rogers is on the mound.

The White Sox played 13 innings in Boston on Thursday night, and then had an emergency bullpen day on Friday thanks to a mistake by their Manager accidentally pulling Noah Schultz. Anthony Kay isn’t a big innings eater but he pitched into the 7th inning last time out, and has been able to get deeper into some starts when working efficiently. I think this is a day where you ask him to give you all he’s got, and Cleveland has been well-below average as a whole and of late against lefties. Rather speculative play but I’m going 0.5u on it.

Six of the last eight right handed starting pitchers to face off with the White Sox have gone for 7+ strikeouts with four of the last five all going over this line. Gavin Williams is on such an incredible run of double digit strikeout efforts, it’s hard not to back him against a team that whiffs at the 3rd highest rate in the league. That’s where Gavin Williams has been excelling too, with a 17% swinging strike rate over the last month. I’m also betting 9,10,11 Ks in a ladder.

Jackson Jobe worked up to around 70 pitches in his last rehab start and will likely face limitations today as he makes his return to MLB action. He did grab double digit whiffs and hit 100 mph with his fastball, but that level of effort for five full innings against a major league lineup can certainly take a lot out of you. This line to me represents his limit, as I would be shocked to see him get into the 6th inning. That’s the reason we have it at 14.5 outs here but I’m going to bet a half unit that he’s gone before finishing a full five innings is completed tonight. I’d say 13.5 is a more fair number here, so I’ll take under.

Otto Lopez was hitless last night but comes back tonight against a lefty that he's had success against. Lopez is having an incredible season but he's hitting .377 vs. southpaws as opposed to .302 against right handers. He's solid against both sides of the platoon but he's been especially good against those lefties, and he had two hits against Martin Perez earlier this year when they faced off. Perez really just doesn't have much to beat Lopez with, and since the Marlins' stud doesn't walk much, I like the total bases look here tonight at plus odds. The over 1.5 Hits, Runs and RBI prop is at best -151 but when Lopez has cashed that bet, he's also usually grabbing at least two bases.

The Padres F5 ML is up near -150 and they have one of the best bullpens in the league but this is -120. San Diego has a well rested bullpen and the edge over Arizona, while Casey Mize also gives us an edge for starting pitchers, with a 2.91 ERA in the 2nd half so far. Young lefty Mitch Bratt starts for the DBacks and his expected stats have his ERA near five and he's walked nine batters in his last two starts with 13 free passes in 17 innings during July. The Padres have won nine of their last 11 while the DBacks are 6-5 in that time. I'll back Casey Mize to be solid in his first start with his new team.

Cody Bradford threw 56 pitches in his last rehab start at AAA, so there will be workload restrictions here but we're also getting a low line at 3.5 Ks. Even on just 56 pitches, Bradford picked up seven strikeouts in four innings while racking up 15 whiffs, and his strikeout stuff played well in each of his starts in the minors. The Giants also traded their toughest hitter to strike out in Luis Arraez, while moving additional pieces creating a severely depleted lineup. Yes, Bradford likely faces a stiffer test than AAA hitters in this start, but the Giants lineup is featuring some less than MLB level talent at the moment anyways, so I'm willing to back him for some strikeouts in this matchup.

The Astros ML is now worse than -200 with the Blue Jays sitting Vlad Jr and Alejandro Kirk today, and we get Hunter Brown facing off with Jameson Taillon. Even if Taillon can hold the Astros offense at bay for a few innings, I'm not convinced he can make it last, and we're past that $1 or better of value threshold here on the pitcher to record a win prop vs the ML price. Taillon has struggled mightily this year, and will make his first start for his new team, while Hunter Brown was just one out away from putting together back to back quality starts in his last one. I'll back Houston's bats to give Brown enough run support to leave with a win.

JT Ginn faces a Reds lineup that includes strikeout-heavy righty Matt McLain and rookie Hector Rodriguez on debut. I'm not tabbing Rodriguez as a strikeout target but Cincy has six hitters in there tonight with a 26% or worse strikeout rate vs. righties. We're getting +150 for a 6th strikeout on MGM which is where I would put a half unit. The over 4.5 Ks at -140 makes for a fair value bet, but I would like to chase the upside you get when facing this Reds lineup by taking over 5.5 here. Ginn has found a way to pickup strikeouts even if his stuff isn't elite, and the underlying swinging strike rate isn't bad either, at better than 12% in July.

Aaron Nola faces off with a Nationals lineup that's starting to look a bit depleted with some of these trades, losing Luis Garcia and Curtis Mead in recent weeks. Still, I like the Nationals team total over 3.5 here, and wouldn't mind taking over 4.5 runs at plus odds, as I have them projecting for just above five runs here. The Philly bullpen is in great shape after not stretching any of their relievers for back to back work over the weekend, and their high leverage guys are all well rested. Nola hasn't pitched great either so I like betting against him with a lineup still lefty heavy, with it being his side that also has more walks.

Kevin Gausman may be on some kind of pitch count today being that there are trade rumors surrounding him and regardless, this isn't an easy strikeout matchup for any righty. We did see Dylan Cease strike out seven yesterday but he still stayed under his 7.5 line and that's with elite stuff and a fastball that's got nearly double the whiff rate of Gausman. If he's not pulled early and gets a normal workload, I have him projecting just under five strikeouts anyways vs. a bottom-five strikeout opponent in STL.

Kodai Senga last pitched for the Mets on July 18th when he threw 45 pitches in relief, and hasn't started a game since June 23rd. He faired OK in three starts vs. the Marlins last year, going over this line in each, but he was being used as a traditional starter. Senga has been in a relief role for over a month now, and is thrust into a spot start only after Freddy Peralta was scratched. With little info on his workload, I'm willing to take +115 and bet that he encounters trouble or doesn't have enough in the tank to be more than an opener for a few innings. They may also use XZavion Curry after Senga, who has been a bulk reliever.