Brandon Woofruff struck out eight batters in what was his first MLB start since 2023 but 6.5 is too high of a line in start #2. He threw just 70 pitches and with his velocity down, he should get knocked around sooner rather than later. I'll admit though, early on he has the advantage of uncertainty and he's throwing a new cutter so things can get sketchy here if that pitch is working well. Something interesting though is that two of the strikeouts in that last start were looking on great pitches that barely caught the zone and Woodruff get's Alfonzo Marquez behind the plate today, who grades out as one of MLB's most hitter friendly umpires.

Luis Castillo has produced an ERA near five when not pitching in Seattle's pitcher-friendly confines. Tarik Skubal on the other hand has been stellar everywhere, but the Tigers offense has helped him to a 10-0 record at Comerica Park as opposed to a 2-2 record on the road. Seattle is coming off three losses in New York and no day off before this game, while Detroit has won five of their last six and stayed home between these two series and had the day off on Wednesday. Tough spot for Seattle in my opinion and now they face Skubal, I'll take the Win at plus odds while the moneyline is near -260.

Cristopher Sanchez has been nothing short of awesome so far this year, with an expected ERA just above three and six straight quality starts in June and July. On the other side, Landon Roupp starts for the Giants and he's been better of late but the expected ERA is still at 4.15. The Phillies bullpen got a major rest day with the complete game of Zack Wheeler yesterday so they should come in fresh and ready to go behind Sanchez. Banking on the Phillies bats to travel well and Sanchez to continue his run of excellence against a Giants team that's fourth-worst in MLB for OPS against lefties since June 1st.

The 17.5 outs line should be 16.5 at best but I do have a couple reservations. Teoscar Hernandez and Tommy Edman got banged up Saturday and sat out yesterday. Dave Roberts' comments don't give me a ton of confidence that they are back in there today but at least Will Smith will be back after sitting yesterday. He's been far better at home this year and the Dodgers have to travel in with potentially a thinner lineup than usual, so I do see an angle for him completing six innings. Still, he will need a lot to go right to beat us, making this numbers-wise a good play, especially with a projection just above 16 outs. I'll stick with 0.5u here without seeing a lineup.

Tarik Skubal will be pitching on extra rest here, coming off that dominant Sunday Night Baseball performance where he struck out 13 Twins batters and gave up just one hit over seven innings (93 pitches). Today he faces the league's worst offense against lefties, who have been even worse of late with just a .588 OPS vs. southpaws since June 1st. Skubal also faced Cleveland in May, when he went for a complete game shutout, allowing just two hits and striking out 13. I would not be surprised if the Guardians try to avoid racking up as many strikeouts today, and some early contact could propel Skubal into that 7th inning with ease.

Logan Webb projects for over seven strikeouts tonight and San Fran needs a longer outing here after Justin Verlander couldn't handle the A's last night and Hayden Birdsong is on deck to start tomorrow. Webb has retooled his changeup this year to bump the whiff rate up dramatically, and it's been huge for his strikeout upside, helping push him over this line in five of seven starts recently, with one miss on the hook at six. The Giants righty has also been better against right handed batters and should get six of them in this lineup, of which only Jacob Wilson has proven to be highly adverse to strikeouts. Also going to play 1u on the ladder at 8,9,10 Ks.

Of his 14 extra base hits so far, 12 have come against right handed pitchers with eight home runs included. He's hitting .382 against righties with an OPS over 1.100 and against a familiar teammate in Charlie Morton, I have to take plus odds on Ronald Acuna Jr to produce some fireworks on the 4th of July in Atlanta!

The Giants came out swinging last night, but won in extra innings, outlasting the DBacks to win their first of the series. Arizona won the first two games so winning this final game of the series would be huge for San Fran to tie it up instead of losing three of four. On the slate today, Brandon Pfaadt owns the highest xERA at 6.80, the highest hard hit rate just under 50% and the highest barrel rate, among all starting pitchers. Meanwhile, Robbie Ray's 2.91 xERA is not far off from his real 2.75 ERA. The DBacks has been good against lefties but they continue to miss Corbin Carroll's bat and the key pieces for the Giants have fared well in limited action against Pfaadt.

Chris Bassitt projects to complete over 17 outs here so betting this at 16.5 before the move to 17.5 is enticing. Bassitt had a complete clunker last time out but that was on the road at Boston, and he gets back home here, where he possesses 2.60 ERA in nine starts so far this year. Because of the blow up last time out, he threw a season low 70 pitches and the Jays got less than five full innings from Jose Berrios yesterday. Since the Jays continue to win and don't have an off day until the 10th, I would not be surprised to see Bassitt receive a bit more leash here out of necessity. Speculative play as many outs bets are, so use caution.

Clayton Kershaw is just three strikeouts away from 3,000 for his career, and in this home start I'm backing him to get at least five punch outs here. Just one of 19 left handed starting pitchers has finished with less than four strikeouts against the White Sox this season and I don't expect Kershaw to be much different after his recent performances. A 5th strikeout is well within his reach here in this home matchup.

Austin Gomber has allowed three home runs and 17 hits in 11 innings against righties so far. The weather in Colorado is hot and at that altitude, it’s a recipe for home runs. Gomber adds to that with a high fly ball rate and he's been barreled up. Smith has hit two home runs in last four games plus he sports an OPS over 1.000 vs. lefties on the year. Batting in the heart of the order; +400 has some value.

The rookie flamethrower has been incredible so far, recording five or more strikeouts in each start, while going up to eight last time. I'm interested in a ladder at 6,7,8 K's on Fanduel, all at plus odds. There is a lot of talk about Misiorowski's fastball velocity, as it averages 99.6 mph, but I think the changeup may be the key here. He's recorded three strikeouts on that pitch already, with a 100% whiff rate over just three batters, and all vs. lefties. Against guys like Nimmo, Soto and McNeil, lefties with lower K rates, that changeup could be the equalizer tonight. With a double header today, he should be given the opportunity to work into the 6th inning if going well.

Blade Tidwell goes against Jacob Misiorowski in game two of the double header. Misiorowski has been incredible so far, only allowing three hits in 16 innings with 19 strikeouts. Tidwell has three appearances in MLB level thus far, allowing 18 hits in just 10.2 innings. Last time out in relief he allowed runs in each of the full innings he worked behind David Peterson and hadn't prevented runs in either start before that. I’ll back the young rookie Misiorowski here as opposed Tidwell who hasn’t been good in MLB level and has to face a Brewers lineup that’s 7th in MLB for OPS against righties at .788 over the last few weeks.

We faded the O's and Brandon Young in this same spot against Jacob deGrom last week and I'll go back to the well here. Young was touched up for four runs in that start while deGrom was able to hold down the O's through seven shutout innings, and I'm truthfully not sure much changes here. deGrom continues to look dominant and mentioned how he feels his mechanics are back to old, providing more comfortability of late on the mound. These teams played into extras last night and the bullpens are taxed, so I would not be surprised if the O's push Young deeper into the game out of necessity, which may not bode well for their chances to hold any kind of lead.

Max Fried has gone over this total in three straight starts but last time out against the Reds his line was 5.5 just as it is here. The line on Carlos Rodon last night was also set at 5.5 yet his swinging strike and strikeout rates are significantly higher than Fried. The Yankees took a tough loss last night and Rodon ended with four strikeouts in five innings, so I'm fading strikeouts again here. Toronto has been under 17% for strikeout rate against southpaws since May 1st and in June alone they were under 15%.