The main thing here is that the Astros are a right handed heavy team and Dylan Cease has been turning up his strikeouts, specifically against right handed batters. Looking at the slider/fastball combo, the whiff rate on that fastball is significantly higher vs. righty batters, pushing up over 43% vs. just 21% vs. lefties. Houston is running a 30% K rate vs. the slider, 5th worst in MLB, and Cease should be able to grab a bunch of strikeouts if he's going well. I have this closer to -145.
It's all about Chase Burns vs Elmer Rodriguez, a massive mismatch in starting pitchers here today. After the Reds bats found a groove yesterday vs. Will Warren, I'm expecting them to give the young rookie some problems here this afternoon. The best price on the F5 ML is around -135 but most of the market is -150, but full game ML is a far better price with how bad the Cincy bullpen is, so I'm taking the Reds to win the F5 at +110 where we have some value left. Burns will need to avoid too many walks, but he's been electric with a 2.58 xERA since start of May, and the Yankees lineup is still a bit depleted without Judge, Stanton, and Grisham.
Spencer Arrighetti gets a left handed heavy lineup and despite some added potential for regression in the runs allowed department, the strikeout stuff looks solid specifically against left handed batters. I'm taking the 6th strikeout at this price, one that I'm finding at least 15-20 cents of value on now with the confirmed lineup. He will need to avoid getting blown up and/or laboring through some deep counts, but Khalil Watson is in there tonight along with Petey Halpin, two lefties with little MLB experience this year, and batters that could get Arrighetti over the hump for Ks tonight.
The xERA for Trevor McDonald is 4.29 in 42 innings since the start of May, while Max Meyer is sitting at 3.44 in 55 innings in that time. Miami is projecting to run six lefties in the lineup, and McDonald has been far worse in that split, allowing a .314 avg and four homers in 20 innings. He's allowed righties to hit just .169 without a homer in a similar span so it'll be on the lefty sluggers for the Marlins to get it done here. The biggest difference between these teams is the bullpen though, as Miami quietly have been one of the best bullpens in baseball over the last month, with a 3.35 xERA while San Fran's bullpen has been horrendous.
Ben Rice faces off with Andrew Abbott in the Bronx, after going deep against Cincy on Friday. He continues to hit the ball hard with consistency and put himself in good hitters counts, so I'll keep riding the wave. Abbott has also been worse against lefties, with a .277 average allowed and Rice has hit .275 with a near .900 OPS vs. southpaws. Rice has been even better vs. righties, so opportunities against that rough bullpen later in the game could prove huge. Abbott is also just a two pitch pitcher vs. lefties with a low 90's fastball and 33% whiff rate sweeper. The breaking ball is not bad, but if Rice can hone in on a fastball, we should have a good shot.
Tabbing Cam Schlittler to have a solid start here tonight against the Reds and help them win after a crushing loss last night. The only real worry on this prop is that Schlittler is kept in the game through the 7th inning to eat up some innings and we get a rogue couple of hits as we saw last time vs. Toronto. But at plus money here and projecting around 4.3 hits allowed, it makes for a fine half unit bet as we try different ways of backing Schlittler here.
I guess we're all in on the Yankees tonight, as we've backed Cam Schlittler on a couple of pitcher props and the Yankees to win by 2 runs at what I deem to be a fair price. Some projections have this price as being largely -ev but I would make it closer to -115 and my gut tells me the New York bats get to Rhett Lowder and a struggling bullpen. Schlittler should see a righty heavy order, and he's held opposing righties to a .171 avg and .236 xwOBA, severely limiting their production. The Reds offense has also been well below average against righties of late, with an OPS under .700 and 91 wRC+, making them 9% worse than league average in this split.
Another brutal beat last night on both Ben Rice and Miguel Vargas total bases, as each hit a ball over 400 feet but incredibly, both were to direct centerfield again which resulted in outs. Rice had a hit before that though, and he's been crushing the ball even when making outs, so I'm going back to this prop against Rhett Lowder. He's been worse vs. lefties but his success keeping runs off the board looks a bit lucky, with a 5.28 xFIP in the last month. The bullpen behind him is one of the worst in MLB too, and we got the walk at least for Rice last night, so I'll play that again too.
Cam Schlittler may be pushed for some extra work with the Yankees bullpen struggling last night, and against a Reds team featuring a strikeout rate above 25% in the month of June vs righties, I won't overthink this. His splits favor strikeouts against lefties and he likely gets only two or three lefties in this Cincy lineup, but the righties include Eugenio Suarez, Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson, and Matt McLain, all with strikeout rates of 24% or higher vs. righties. 1st At Bat strikeout bets on all of them! Wouldn't be surprised if the price gets better if Noelvi Marte is in the lineup (unconfirmed) and I would make this a 1u bet if we got near +100 for a 7th K.
Miguel Vargas had some tough luck last night when two balls hit incredibly well stayed in the yard. He hit one at 104mph exit velocity that traveled 403 feet but was caught and another that was tagged similarly but became an out, leaving him with two very hard hit balls that amounted to nothing. Vargas still had an early double and looks locked in with a near 1.200 OPS vs. lefties, while southpaw Ryan Weathers is struggling to avoid home runs of late. I'm backing Vargas to have a great game on over 1.5 Hits, Runs and RBI, but the Total Bases isn't a bad pivot. Also playing 1+ walk (+145) as they might pitch around the righty slugger with lefty, Colson Montgomery, behind him.
Byron Buxton is over this line in seven games in June, as he's a roll batting .340 with 17 hits across 13 games. Buxton has racked up six home runs in that time, and three doubles, for nine total extra base hits. Being he has a lower walk rate, and Jack Leiter walks righties at a lower clip, the total bases is a good alternative here if you can't get the hits, runs and rbi prop. Buxton over 1.5 Hits, Runs and RBI (-135) is a great play, but with all the recent extra base hits, I like the total bases at this price too. He had a home run and double off Leiter last year, so let's hope he doesn't pitch around him.
I'm on Ben Rice over 2.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (+120) as well tonight, but the total bases at this price is a fine alternative. With it, I'm playing Rice for 1+ walk at +102 on Draftkings for 0.5u. Sean Burke has had issues with walks to lefties, tallying 20 in 42 innings thus far, with 38 hits and six home runs allowed. If not for an incredible diving play that saw Everson Pereira smash into the outfield fence last night, Rice would have had a ringing double off the left-center wall. Hitting a ball at 104 mph and sending it 400+ feet usually results in a hit, so if he can continue smashing the baseball like that, he'll have a great shot at two bases.
Gavin Williams had gone 10 straight starts without allowing more than two walks up until last time out when he surrendered three vs. the Yankees. It was the second time that lineup had seen him in a week so maybe that impacted their good eyes. Now, Williams will face a Brewers lineup with the lowest chase rate in MLB and part of his success this year has been predicated on a rise in chase rate. Williams still has walk upside though with his sporadic lack of command, and tonight he faces a Brewers lineup that features five hitters with walk rates of 10% or better. Over 17.5 outs is favored, and I like the over on this prop if he works a full six innings.
Edward Cabrera led MLB in stolen bases allowed last year with 35, and he's surrendered 10 stolen bags through 12 starts so far. While Miguel Amaya is the Cubs best throwing option at catcher, I'm still taking a shot on some stolen base bets. Cole Carrigg has yet to steal a base since he came up to MLB level a week ago, but he's in the 96th percentile for sprint speed, and he was a stolen base demon in the minors. He racked up 51 stolen bases in A ball a couple years back, then 46 at AA, and had already stole 30 bases in 57 AAA games this year before his call up. 0.10u on 2+ Stolen Bases (+3100).
Mets Team Total over 4.5 (-140) on ScoreBet/Caesars is a 0.5u play for me tonight, projecting over six runs and facing Brady Singer plus a rough Cincinnati bullpen. They rank as the fourth worst bullpen for ERA in all of baseball, and we get some solid hitting weather in The Great American Ballpark tonight. If you can't get just the Mets team total, I do like the full game over as well, with Kodai Senga on the mound for the Mets as he comes off the IL. This won't be an easy task for Senga, who may have an abbreviated outing anyways, but walks, hits, hit batters, and wild pitches all are a regularity for him, which would help our chances.