Trey Yesavage takes the mound for the final time. ...

We got talking in the Sportsline discord about player milestones and Josh Naylor's name came up. We did this last year with Naylor, as he looked to hit 30 stolen bases and was motivated to run late in the season. We get the same setup here as he sits at 29 stolen bases and faces southpaw Reid Detmers tonight. Usually a lefty isn't one to run on but Detmers may be his best shot of the weekend, allowing 16 stolen bases this year with only 2 runners caught. Other names to watch: Jose Ramirez is at 37, Tatis is at 38, and Oneil Cruz, Elly De La Cruz and Josh Naylor all sit at 29 and I anticipate each gets to 30 this weekend.

I think in the end this does set up as a spot for Hunter Brown to miss a full six innings even if he has strikeout upside. Of late the strikeout stuff has been amazing, but that's also pushed his pitch count up, and he's failed to pitch deeper into the game. He was great last time but pulled just under 100 pitches, and the bullpen blew it after. That could weigh heavy on manager Joe Espada's mind and he may try to push the starter, but I still think the numbers say he projects around 16 outs and in this ballpark you take the under. The Astros also cannot mess around if he gets into trouble, so 0.5u on the under 17.5 outs.

With how good Hunter Brown has been with his strikeouts of late, this is worth a shot on Fanduel where the price is almost 30 cents better than the market. I would have this one about 20 cents worse at least so I'm willing to put a half unit on the 6th strikeout here. Brown has struck out double digit batters in three of his last five and has looked sharp, with the knuckle curveball coming in above 40% whiff rate during the second half of the season. The key though is the fastball, which has crept up to 35% whiff rate in September, and is a pitch this A's lineup has multiple batters who struggle to avoid whiffing against. 0.5u only.

The Phillies need this game a ton, while the Rays are just going through the motions for this final series with nothing left to play for. I'll back Cristopher Sanchez over Freddy Peralta although Peralta has been better of late. His batting average on balls in play is extremely low over the last month and points to potential regression, while Sanchez faces off with a Tampa Bay lineup that's been significantly worse against lefties in the second-half of the season. Anything under -160 for the ML here is good with me, but I also like a half unit on the -1.5 runs, which could come in easily if Sanchez is locked in.

I'll back Cristopher Sanchez over Freddy Peralta even if Peralta has been better of late. His batting average on balls in play is extremely low over the last month and points to potential regression, while Sanchez faces off with a Tampa Bay lineup that's been significantly worse against lefties. I like a half unit on the -1.5 runs, which could come in easily if Sanchez is locked in and pitching deep into the game, plus if we get some of that regression on Peralta that would help. This could be the spot for it too, as seven of the Phillies batters have double digit at bat totals vs. Peralta.

Trevor Rogers should be able to get into the 6th inning if not further tonight, being this is his final start of the year, the O's are out of the playoff race, and he is a veteran who is becoming a free agent. His innings are over 165 but he should have enough in the tank to get deeper into this game. The outs line is 17.5/18.5 so the market thinks he gets some run as well. He's improved the strikeout stuff vs. righties over the last month by a large margin, with a 33% K rate and nearly 14% swinging strike rate. I like the 7,8,9 Ks ladder more but over 5.5 straight still has some value as I'd make it -200 or worse.

Ian Seymour has allowed 11 home runs and 43 hits in 42 innings against lefties this year but the southpaw has been great vs. righties, with just a .222 average allowed in 85 innings. With that we'll target lefty Ben Rice, who just tied the AL home run leaders with 41 after hitting two bombs last night, and I think he stays hot with an extra base hit or how about another home run? The Yankees slugger has hit .343 in September, racking up 45 total bases in 70 at bats, and he's been fine against lefties with a .253 average and 11 homers this year. The hits, runs and RBI is +125 for over 1.5 so take that if you have it.

Cam Schlittler's outs line was 16.5 at (-130) on the under, but it's now 15.5 and the under is -160 or worse on MGM and DK. Fanduel pricing is lagging but it's 15.5 there too. With the Yankees' playoff spot locked and Schlittler likely to start Game One of the Wild Card Series, this final start could be one with a low pitch count. A max of five innings seems to be the market consensus, and if that's the case I'm not going to chase the outs, but I'll bet against him getting a seventh strikeout. This is a Rays lineup that makes a ton of contact and despite Schlittler's elite strikeout stuff, he projects to stay under this number on a normal workload anyways.

The price here on PCA to record a stolen base is really depressed so make sure to bet this at MGM for +180 or better, with even some +200's still out there. The spot sets up much better than last night for the Cubs MVP to steal a base, as Agustin Ramirez did not play last night and today's starter Tyler Phillips has been much worse for allowing stolen bases. We got our chance last night for a steal but PCA ran as Seiya Suzuki popped up, and we didn't get the chance to see him get the steal officially. I think in the final home game of the year, he gets it done in front of the home fans.

Mike Trout is hitting .273 in September and had a great night on Tuesday with three hits. Still playing in Sacramento here, this Angels lineup gets to see Jeffrey Springs who has struggled at home this year with a 6.94 ERA. The southpaw gave up six runs last time out and Mike Trout has produced a .268 average against lefties this year, about 30 points better than his production against righties. On the away team near the top of the order, I like Trout to have at least a couple bases tonight if not a home run.

Walbert Urena has continued to produce solid underlying swinging strike and whiff numbers. He's also racked up strikeouts nine and seven strikeouts in back to back starts but the line remains lower here at 4.5 tonight. The ballpark isn't great for pitchers and the A's lineup has been striking out less of late, so there are a couple of pieces to give us pause, but he's still been too solid of late to ignore the over here. Urena has been far better against righties, so this probably comes down to if he can get lefty Lawrence Butler to strike out, while also getting the righties like Bolte and Gelof that should be his strongest targets tonight.

PCA was at 38 stolen bases yesterday but could only get one steal last night, leaving him at 39 stolen bases on the year now. This sets up nicely for the likely NL MVP to achieve 40 steals in tonight's game, as Marlins catcher Agustin Ramirez should be back in there starting and he's thrown out just 3/19 runners this year. He was the catcher PCA had success against last night, so I'll take a shot PCA is looking to run again on him. Miami starter Ryan Gusto hasn't allowed many stolen bases but tomorrow's starter Tyler Phillips has been much easier to steal on, so if not tonight, I'll run this back once more tomorrow.

There is some uncertainty who will start for the Dodgers but it’s likely Justin Wrobleski, and Michael King will take the mound for the Padres. I don’t have much interest in backing the Dodgers bats here against King, but the Padres offense has been rolling, as they’re 14-2 in their last 16 games and have scored 4+ runs in 12 of those wins. For a team that’s this hot and is on the away side guaranteeing them nine at bats, I would think this is the team total with Yamamoto or Snell on the mound. With it being Wrobleski or another bullpen arm, this is more of a bullpen game so I’m taking the over 3.5 runs and betting San Diego's bats stay hot.

The Giants lineup yielded nine strikeouts last night for us when backing Zebby Matthews so we go back to the strikeouts here tonight with Taj Bradley on the mound. He's bumped the strikeout stuff up recently, over a 30% K rate to each side of the plate, with strong underlying metrics to boot. Righties are producing a 16% swinging strike rate over the last month against Bradley, and the Giants lineup features just two hitters below a 24% K rate this year. Albeit some of the sample sizes are small, but that is also to my point for more strikeouts with some of these hitters just getting MLB experience for the first time late in the season for San Fran.