Eric's Picks (2 Live)
This is a battle of two defensive-minded teams who surrender less than 70 points per game on average. St. John's has given up 72 or less in 11 straight games, while Kansas has held 11 of its last 18 opponents to 70 points or less. This feels like a game which will be decided by no more than two or three possessions and will slow to a crawl in the final five minutes. I like the way St. John's has played of late more so than Kansas and will pick them on Sunday afternoon, 71-67.
Who doesn't love to play Overs, especially when it comes to Wake Forest home games? If you think I'm crazy with that last part, check out this stat: 10 of the last 11 Wake home games have seen totals of 150+ points. Illinois State has only faced one other Power 4 conference team this season, USC, who scored 87 on them in November. I believe this game is played in at least the mid-to-upper 70s and ends up closer to 160 total points than 150.
I'm taking the bait. First one to 100 wins? This matchup pits Arkansas, the third highest scoring team in the country (90.1 points per game) against High Point, the fourth highest scoring team this season (89.8 PPG). The Razorbacks have scored 86+ points in 10 of their last 12 games and now face a team who is playing only their second power conference foe this year. John Calipari's team drops 100 and this one ends up closer to 190 than 160.
I want to thank Louisville for collapsing and allowing South Florida to backdoor an incredible cover on Thursday afternoon. If the Bulls shot better than 4 of 33 from three-point range, they likely would have beaten the Cardinals. Now Louisville, already without their best player, faces a Michigan State team who excels on defense and should dominate in the interior. Give me Tom Izzo's team by double-digits in this matinee on Saturday afternoon.
This is a strange line to me considering Miami finished 32nd in the NET Rankings and Missouri 58th. With both teams averaging around or above 80 points per game, this could end up a fun shootout towards the end of Friday night's games. But Miami's defense is better, they're a better rebounding team, and Mizzou enters on a three game losing streak. Give me the Hurricanes by three possessions.
The Mountain West regular season and tournament champions enter off three dominant double-digit victories in Las Vegas, while Villanova was embarrassed by a lousy Georgetown team in their conference tournament. Both teams played eight Quad 1 games, with the Aggies going 4-4 and the Wildcats 2-6 this season. Utah State finished 25 in the NET Rankings, with Villanova 35th. As an Arizona fan, I hope I'm wrong on this pick as I'm more concerned about facing Utah State than 'Nova. But I believe the more highly ranked team prevails by at least five points on Friday.
My Wildcats played seven non-power conference schools in the non-conference portion of the season and averaged 97.1 points per game in those contests. LIU gave up 98 to Illinois and 89 to Georgia in the only games where they faced an eventual NCAA Tournament team. I see a final around 95-65 here with a no sweat win for my National Championship predicted team (and my alma mater).
I wanted to lock in this number early in case it goes down later in the week. I like the Zips to win the game outright as well. If star forward J.T. Toppin was healthy, the Red Raiders might be a Final Four contender. But without him, they were only 3-3 including losing their final three contests heading into the NCAA Tournament. Akron enters on a ten game winning streak, having also won 19 of their last 20 games. Don't be surprised if the Red Raiders and star guard Christian Anderson, who may not be 100% healthy, are susceptible on Friday in Tampa.
St. Mary's has won an NCAA Tournament game in 3 of the last 4 years and I like their chances to do the same in 2026. The Gaels are a stout defensive team and I wouldn't be surprised if they slowed Texas A&M's potent offense to more of a crawl on Thursday. Allowing only 64.6 points per game (7th), expect Randy Bennett's team to control the tempo and win this game by at least the upper single digits.
Without superstar Caleb Wilson, I'm completely out on North Carolina. VCU has won 16 of 17 games, albeit in a weaker Atlantic 10 Conference, while UNC is 1-4 in their last five away from Chapel Hill. If Wilson was playing, the Tar Heels would be a sneaky pick in The Big Dance. Instead they're an easy fade for me. Rams win outright by more than five points in a low-scoring contest.
I love the Bulls in this game and will also be picking them outright in my brackets. Heck, there is a +1200 number on USF to make the Sweet 16 on DK that I would also play as well. The Bulls have won 11 straight games and 17 of 19, with both losses coming by exactly one point. Meanwhile, Louisville is only 4-4 in their last eight games and I think they might have peaked too early in the season. I expect this to be the first surprise of a mostly chalky NCAA Tournament.
Once again, I'm drinking the Miami kool-aid. This is basically a home game for the RedHawks, only an hour away from campus. At 31-1, Miami has something to prove considering their strength of schedule was among the worst in the country. While I wouldn't be shocked if they won the game outright, this line is disrespectful, especially considering that SMU lost 5 of 6 heading into this First Four game.
I'll take a shot getting double digit points with a Navy team who won 22 of its last 24 games and shockingly didn't win the Patriot League. The Midshipmen covered in 21 of 31 games this season and should have all the motivation in this game, trying to prove they can hang with an ACC team. I won't doubt that Wake Forest will win, but don't be surprised if this is a one or two possession game in the final minutes of Wednesday's NIT game.