I first checked this total on Sunday and didn't play it thinking it would go up from 43.5. I was wrong, but it shouldn't matter. This game features two nasty defenses and two struggling offenses. The Longhorns may have whipped a bad Sam Houston team two weeks ago, but they still haven't shown they can score against a quality defense. Meanwhile the Gators have scored just one touchdown in each of their last three games. Weather may also play a role. I see a 16-6 type game. Two units.
We're afraid that one more loss on Saturday, especially if Floirda loses touch, might be the point of no return for Billy Napier's tenure in Gainesville. The Gators offense has been in shambles; regional sources suggest the fact QB DJ Lagway didn't have a normal offseason or fall camp, spent mostly re-habbing first a shoulder, then a calf injury. Recently, he's been in a walking boot because of foot problems. In four games, Lagway has tossed 5 TD passes and 6 picks. Not good! Granted, Arch Manning's Heisman campaign looks like the biggest false alarm since the Comet Kahoutek, but the Longhorns did clear the cobwebs a bit with the 55-0 romp past Sam Houston on September 20. Play Texas
Both teams are coming off a bye week, but it is more important for a Texas who is still in the playoff picture than a 1-3 Florida team. DJ Lagway has struggled against top competition, and while Arch Manning has disappointed, Texas' defense has been strong.
I am going to take a shot here with Texas. There are still a couple Longhorns -6.5 out there but I would also play this at -7. Texas hasn't played its best game yet and I like them coming off a bye against a banged up Florida team I think is about done. The Gators scored 33 points in losses to USF, LSU and Miami. I don't see them doing much against Texas' defense. Also, look for the Horns to get the running game going versus a Florida defensive line dealing with multiple injuries. Horns -7 or less.
