Auburn went just 1-3 at home in SEC games last season, and this is their first SEC home game this season. Despite Tennessee and Alabama's offenses having success against Georgia, we don't like Auburn's chances of putting up big numbers because Georgia's run defense was still strong in both games, and we don't trust Jackson Arnold to have a big game passing the ball. Georgia already has 1 SEC loss this season, and Kirby Smart will have them playing with urgency going forward.

This is a tough spot for Iowa State, who had to play at Cincinnati last week and now has to travel to Colorado. The change in altitude won't help, but what will help is playing a Colorado team that is banged up. We simply trust Rocco Becht in this game more than we trust Kaidon Salter.

Although this same bet didn't hit for us last week vs. Boise State, we are going back to Notre Dame team total again this weekend. Considering their 4 takeaways last week, Notre Dame likely should've scored more than 42 points against Boise State. NC State QB CJ Bailey is very talented but has struggled with INTs. We think ND should be able to turn more of their forced TOs into touchdowns in this game as well as hit on more explosive plays on offense.

SMU has yet to fully click on both sides of the ball, but we think this is a good matchup for them against Stanford. SMU's offense at home so far this season is not too far off of what they did last season when they averaged 40 PPG at home. It's their defense and road offense that have been the problem. Stanford allowed 48 points to UVA in its lone ACC road game so far this season and allowed 38 PPG on the road last season. This is a game that SMU could use to get right, and while the Mustangs have two losses, neither of those were conference losses.

We have been high on Missouri all year, and while we think Alabama is a top-5 team, the Crimson Tide are just 3-5 on the road since last season. Mizzou is 11-0 in FBS home games since last season, and while we would favor Alabama on a neutral field, the home field advantage is enough for us to slightly favor Missouri. We think Missouri will be able to run the ball against Alabama's defense, which has yet to live up to its preseason expectations. The 3.5 line also offers some insurance at a key number if Mizzou loses by a field goal.

Cal has been a hard team to predict, which is often the case when you have a true Freshman at QB. Duke is coming off a strong defensive performance in which it held Syracuse to just 3 points, and despite Syracuse playing a backup QB, we still think it's impressive. Expect Duke HC Manny Diaz to try to rattle Cal's Freshman QB early and often.

UNLV hasn't looked all that great this season, but the Runnin' Rebels are 4-0 and still firmly in the race to represent the Group of 5 in the playoffs. Laramie, Wyoming is one of the tougher places to play, but Wyoming is just 4-10 against FBS opponents since last season, and we think UNLV is just more talented.

Notre Dame team total has been good to us, so why not go back to it. Notre Dame's defense has been a problem, but the offense has been rolling through 4 games. Boise has allowed 37 and 34 points in its two road games this season, and those were against Air Force and South Florida, who aren't known for explosive offenses. Boise has a tackling issue and that will be a problem against Jeremiyah Love and Notre Dame.

Both teams are coming off a bye week, but it is more important for a Texas who is still in the playoff picture than a 1-3 Florida team. DJ Lagway has struggled against top competition, and while Arch Manning has disappointed, Texas' defense has been strong.

We like Ohio to hold Ball State under their team total of 18.5, while we also like Ohio to slightly surpass their own team total. Ohio rushed for 270 yards last season vs. Ball State, and we expect the Bobcats to have a ton of success on the ground in this game as well. Ohio has the big advantage in this game at QB with Parker Navarro, and despite not loving Ohio's defense, we like their defense more than Ball State's offense.

We have been impressed with La Tech this season. They held LSU to just 27 points and then put up strong performances against New Mexico State and Southern Miss. UTEP has a former 5-star QB, Malachi Nelson, on offense, but they have just 3 FBS wins since last season.

App State allowed 40 PPG in their road games last season, while Boise has allowed 35.5 points in two games against FBS opponents this season. This is a bet against two defenses that we don't trust, and we like both teams to go over their team totals.

Mizzou scored 45 points on the road at UMASS last season, and they are at home in this matchup this season. UMASS allowed 47 points to Iowa and 42 points to Temple, two offenses that struggled to score last season. Missouri should roll in this game, and we think their backups should put up points as well.

Tennessee was a 26 point favorite in this matchup, and while Mississippi State is greatly improved, we think there is value on the Vols with the line at just 7.5. The win over a Skattebo-less Arizona State team early in the season doesn't impress us too much, while we are impressed with what Tennessee and Joey Aguilar have done on offense.

While this game should be a major test for Ole Miss' rebuilt defense, we think LSU's offensive problems this season should help them. LSU's offense has struggled in all three FBS games this season and wins over Clemson and Florida no longer carry much weight with both teams at 1-3. We actually think Trinidad Chambliss gives Ole Miss a slightly better chance of winning than Austin Simmons due to his dual-threat ability.