The Dubs are good at circling the wagons...

NBA Totals patterns not quite as pronounced on the weekend...he first round...

Time to mention the 1942 Maple Leafs, 1975 Islanders, 2004 Red Sox, 2010 Flyers, and Kings, the rare handful of pro sports sides that have recovered from 0-3 deficits to win a playoff series. Don't hold your breath, as it's never happened in the NBA, but then again we're not asking the Heat to do anything more than not get humbled the way they were in Saturday's Game 3 when absorbing their worst-ever playoff defeat, smashed 124-87 by the Cavs, who can wrap up the series tonight. Can Cleveland hit the same sort of crescendo it did on Saturday when a 33-5 run into the 2nd Q buried Miami. A normal game from Tyler Herro (only 13 on Saturday) keeps Heat closer. Play Heat

Have the Magic gotten under the skin of the Celtics, who are talking now of fighting in response to several supposed hard fouls committed by the Magic? This series has been mostly a slog...just the way Orlando likes it. The Magic won the regular-season series against Boston 2-1, holding the Celtics to their fewest points per game and lowest 3-point accuracy of any Eastern team. Moreover, the Celtics, who led the NBA with almost 18 triples pg, have averaged just 10.7 against the Magic, their fewest versus any foe. Remember, too, Orlando led the NBA in scoring defense (105.5 PPG), while their length and switching defense have made this an uncomfortable matchup for Boston. Note unders 18-8 in the playoffs into today. Play Celtics-Magic Under

This matchup looks a fundamental problem for the Lakers, who simply don't have the same sort of athleticism on their roster as do the T-wolves. LeBron, though able to pick up the pace in Game 3 with 38 points as Doncic was laboring, has often looked slow in this series, his age especially apparent at times on the stop end. LA's only win in this series came when the Wolves went ice-cold from beyond the arc in Game 2. Thus far, the T-wolves defense ahs been the story, holding the Lakers to barely 97 ppg in the first three clashes, while Jaden McDaniels has been the featured "other" in this series with tallies of 25 points (Game One) and 30 points (Game Three). Play T-wolves

Once more Saturday was unders day in NBA playoff action, cashing in three of four opportunities and moving to an impressive 18-8 thus far in the first round. One of the eight overs happened to be Game 3 on Friday in this series when the Tt-Wolves won 116-104, which has helped bumped Sunday's total up slightly to 208.5/209. But this has still been a defense-oriented series and reflected by the fact the lake Show is scoring barely 97 pg thru the first three, and hasn't been able to get Luka Doncic and LeBron clicking at the same time, partly due to T-wolves defensive pressure. Note that the first six meetings between these two this season landed under before Friday night. Play Lakers-Wolves Under

Jimmy Butler's status remains up in the air, but either way, however, expect the Dubs to circle the wagons back at Chase Center. Steve Kerr is ready to plus Jonathan Kuminga back into the rotation with extended minutes if Butler is limited or can't go, and Brandin Podziemski should be more ready to contribute than in Game 2 when he was dealing with illness. And, of course, there's Steph. Houston is still a playoff newcomer and plays its first postseason game as a visitor since May of 2019. Jalen Green's inconsistencies (7 and 38 points, respectively, in the first two games) make Houston a harder to trust...whether of not Jimmy B is on the floor for Golden State. Play Warriors

Too many internal dysfunctions on the Nuggets side. Denver doesn't have the same personnel as it did when winning the title two years ago, something that perhaps should have been considered before recently hitting the eject button on HC Michael Malone. The Clippers are an especially tough fundamental matchup for Denver because Ivica Zubac can defend the Joker better than most, but that's only the beginning, because the Clips have, for the moment, arrived at the formula to get Kawhi Leonard healthy and at peak performance when it counts in the playoffs. Kawhi's (27.3 ppg in this series) mid-range game is destroying the Nuggets, and Denver's thin bench added only 6 points in Game 3, with Russell Westbrook's foot injury now a concern. Play Clippers

This series has been more competitive than the Cavs' 2-0 lead might make it seem. Miami as been able to get into its offense fairly consistently as it's hit better than 50% from the floor (81 of 161) across the first two games. Tyler Herro, who has scored 33+ in the four play-in/playoff games, remains capable of shooting the Heat into a game. Rebounding numbers across the first two games are almost even; though Cleveland (only 17 TOs across the first two games) has been a bit more careful with possessions. If Miami, home for the first time since April 13, makes a bit of a stand as we suspect, this is time to give the Heat a chance to unnerve the Cavs, Play Heat

Noting easy here for the Lakers, who needed the T-wolves to go ice-cold with their shooting to recover from the 117-95 Game One humbling and level this series heading back to Minneapolis. LA has been held beneath 100 points in each of the first two games, with Luka Doncic (34 ppg in series) the only Laker performing to near full-capacity. JJ Redick's bench has also scored a paltry 13 points in each of the first two games. Minnesota's length and athleticism is a bother to the Lakers, now it's up to the Wolves offense to deliver as in Game One, when Shaq's so-called "others" (such as Jaden McDaniels who scored 25 on Sunday) contributed in support of Ant Edwards and Julius Randle. Play T-wolves

The unders have continued to deliver in the playoffs and did again last night in two of the three tilts, now 13-6 in the first round. These Lakers-Wolves games have been at the forefront, real rock-fights featuring stifling defense, both unders as well. Three-point shooting became a real issue in Game 2 when neither side shot as well as 21% from deep. For the Lakers, they're only shooting 30% (21 of 70) from deep across the past two games. Moreover, the Lakers have been held to beneath 100 points in each of the first two games, and LA bench production almost non-existent (only 13 points in each). And, remember, unders are now 6-0 in Lake Show-Wolves games this season. Play Lakers-Wolves Under

Though down 2-0, the Magic have at least succeeded in making this an uncomfortable series for the Celtics. Jayson Tatum (wrist) is once again a doubtful, and worth noting that in a game he also missed at Orlando earlier this season (December 23), Boston lost 108-104 despite 35 points from Jaylen Brown, who scored nearly the same (35) on Sunday when the Celtics won, but didn't cover, in Game 2. Though Boston had geared it down and rested starters in the 96-76 loss at Kia Center on April 9, the Celtics were 0-2 in Orlando this season. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are combining for 58 ppg in this series, and a little help from elsewhere might give the Magic a legit chance. Play Magic

The overs were 2-1 last night, but totals are still dropping across the NBA first round, and Nuggets-Clips tonight is down from 224.5 in Game One, 217.5 in Game 2, to 213.5 for Game 3...and we don't think it's dropped quite enough. Some underlying reasons for the generally-lower scores, as it looks like the playoffs are being played differently; without the bottom-of-the-barrel teams like the Wizards and Jazz and Pelicans and Hornets to worry about, these better teams are mostly taking away the three-point shots from the opposition and turning the clock back to the 1990s. Most of these series have turned into rock fights; modern analytics again mostly disappear in the postseason, which is what we're seeing in this series. Play Nuggets-Clippers Under

So far this season, this matchup has been the NBA equivalent of George Foreman vs. Joe Frazier. Six wins, six covers for OKC, no margin less than 13; we hardly think a change in venue to the Bluff City will change the dynamics, either, as the Thunder won by 13 and 17 earlier this season at FedEx Forum. OKC's defensive length has wrecked the Griz, held under 100 points in the first two games, and with Ja Morant playing on a bad wheel, Memphis is fighting with a hand tied behind its back. The Thunder hasn't even needed SGA at his best (just 22 ppg the first two playoff games after 36.3 pg vs. Griz during the season) to pull clear. Play Thunder

Things aren't looking too good for the Griz. Perhaps the fact Ja Morant seems to be playing at less than 100% on a sore ankle has something to do with it, but it's probably just as much the disorienting defensive schemes and quickness deployed by OKC, which is also challenging the Memphis shooters from the perimeter and holding the Griz to just 16 for 65 accuracy (24.6%) that has disoriented Morant, Desmond Bane & Co. The lopsidedness of this series, a carryover from the regular season, might be a fitting way for a Griz campaign that jumped the rails and forced out HC Taylor Jenkins, to conclude. Unders are also 11-5 overall in the playoffs (2-0 in this series) entering Thursday. Play Thunder-Grizzlies Under