Washington won 23-4 in the opener of this series. We can’t expect 23 runs again, but the Nats can score on anyone, and that includes J.T. Ginn, who has a 5.30 ERA over his last seven starts. Washington’s road OPS this month is a wacky 1.313 and its OPS vs. right-handers is nearly .900. Meanwhile, Nationals RHP Zack Little has a 1.80 ERA in two July starts and has given up six runs over his last four starts combined. The A’s simply aren’t hitting anyone right now.
If you believe Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal can shut down an Angels lineup that’s been better vs. left-handers than right-handers, then the Tigers are worth backing. Skubal owns a 1.38 lifetime ERA at Angel Stadium, and Detroit’s pen ERA this month is at 1.24. Detroit is in an offensive slump as well, but L.A. RHP Grayson Rodriguez has a 7.55 ERA in seven starts and the Angels pen has a 5.56 ERA in July.
The A’s don’t score. They’re lost 13 of 14. They haven’t put a crooked number on the scoreboard in five straight. They’ve managed over two runs just one time in their last eight games. Neither team has a bullpen, so starter stamina is an asset here. Nationals RHP Cade Cavalli has gone six-plus innings in three of four and allowed three runs or less in six straight. A’s LHP Gage Jump hasn’t lasted six innings in four straight. Washington’s home OPS and OPS vs. left-handers in July is over 1.000.
The Tigers laid a pair of eggs to the Phillies to close out the first half, but prior to that had won nine of 10, averaging 6.1 runs per game. They’ve especially crushed left-handers to the tune of an .858 OPS – bad news for Angels LHP Reid Detmers, who has allowed five runs in three of his last four starts and has yet to gain a win at home. So we’ll happily back Troy Melton, who is 5-1 with a 1.82 ERA in eight starts, and a Tigers bullpen with a 2.97 ERA in July. They can combine to hold down an Angels team that’s dropped 10 of 12 and held to three or fewer runs in eight of those games.
Brady Singer is 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA in nine road starts. He’s had issues with left-dominated orders, and Colorado will have six, including three of its top four. The Rockies’ offense has been hitting but not scoring due to a lack of the clutch hit. In July the team’s home OPS is .998, its OPS vs. right-handers at .845. Those splits are far higher than those of the Reds. Rockies prospect Gabriel Hughes threw six quality innings vs. the Dodgers in his first start, this after a three-inning, zero-run relief spot vs. the Giants. He’s backed by a bullpen that’s actually delivering (2.13 ERA in July).
We like runs to be scored in the opening game of the second half of the season. Christian Scott has been solid for the Mets, but he’s gone five innings or less in eight of 10 starts, and never made it six. Aaron Nola has been bad everywhere but way worse at home (6.81 ERA in eight starts). It’s possible neither pitcher goes more than give innings. Expect runs to be scored when moves are made; these have been the worst two bullpens in July, the Phillies boasting an 8.05 ERA, the Mets at 9.61. Teams are hitting .335 off Mets relievers for the month! In July, the Mets’ road OPS is .787, the Phillies at home are .860, solid marks.
Twins starter Taj Bradley has given up only six runs on 16 hits over his last four starts (24 innings). He faces an Angels team that’s posted a poor .580 OPS vs. RHPs in July. Conversely, the Twins’ OPS is .782 – over 200 points higher – and Jose Soriano’s hot season start has cooled big-time. Minnesota has a decided bullpen edge here as well.
Mets rookie Zach Thornton pitched a gem in his second career game on June 26 vs. the Phillies. But now he gets the Red Sox, who are crushing left-handers to the tune of a .936 OPS this month. The Mets’ bullpen in July is a hilarious 10.70. Boston needs to score runs here, while Sox LHP Peyton Tolle, who has a 2.87 ERA on the road, can limit a Mets lineup that's managed two runs so far this series.
Whether it’s Craig Counsell’s game planning or not, the Cubs are the worst hitting team on Sundays in MLB. Here they face Andrew Abbott, who hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a game since April, and a Reds bullpen with a July ERA of 1.84. The Cubs’ relievers this month are at 7.04. Chicago LHP Matthew Boyd has gone over five innings just twice all season. We’ll throw a bone to the home dog.
The Athletics have cratered, losing 10 of their last 11. They’ve scored two runs or less in four of their last five games. The last two weeks, their team OPS is .551 vs. right-handers, and .518 on the road. That’s makes it a good spot for White Sox starter Sean Burke. In his last four starts, he’s given up five total runs over 25 innings. Three of those runs came on solo homers. The A’s have two home runs off right-handers over their last 99 at-bats. The White Sox bats were non-existent in Boston, scoring just two runs in a three-game sweep. If they can’t bounce back at home against Jacob Lopez (8.07 ERA last seven starts), that’s trouble.
Astros starter Hunter Brown was knocked around by the Rays last time out. Before that, though, he’d given up five runs over five starts. We’ll bank on a bounce-back for Brown against the Rangers, who over the last week are averaging 8.3 runs in three wins and 1.3 runs in the three losses. Rangers RHP Can Quantrill has a home ERA 2.5 runs higher than his road split. Since joining the starting rotation he hasn’t gone over five innings, and the Texas bullpen owns a 5.40 bullpen in July.
Tigers starter Jack Flaherty has re-found his form, allowing just five runs over his last five starts combined. He hasn’t allowed a home run since May 22. Meanwhile, the red-hot Tigers have a good matchup against Aaron Nola, who owns a 6.18 ERA over his last seven starts, and a Phillies bullpen with a 7.04 ERA the last two weeks.
The Pirates were blanked on Wednesday, but prior to that had scored at least five runs in nine of 10 games. They can do so again here vs. Bryce Elder, who owns a 7.50 ERA his last seven starts and all season has been worse on the road and in day games. Pirates starter Mitch Keller has a 7.50 in his last seven as well, but is 5-0 with 3.26 ERA in matinees. The Pirates are the No. 3-hitting team in day games and their .891 OPS vs. right-handers the last two weeks ranks No. 3. The Braves are 28th in day-game hitting.
It often feels futile to back the Rockies, especially on the road. But Ryan Feltner has allowed 0-2 runs in eight of his last nine starts, and six days ago struck out nine Giants and allowed only three hits in a win at Coors. Giants top prospect Carson Whisenhunt gets the call-up here, but the LHP has a 4.43 ERA in 36 Triple-A starts over two seasons. Colorado’s OPS vs. LHPs the last two weeks is .816, and the Giants’ bullpen (6.49 ERA in that same span) isn’t offering much relief lately.
Logan Henderson is off the IL for the Brewers and hopes to pick up where he left off. In his five starts, the last one May 22, he’s 2-1 with a 2.74 ERA. Last year in five starts he was 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA. Milwaukee has a premier bullpen and the Cardinals have had issues scoring, especially off right-handers (which the Brewers’ starter and top bullpen guys all are). Cards starter Andre Pallante is 2.4 runs worse at Busch Stadium and was roughed up in Milwaukee in May.