Going a half-unit on this low number. Over their last seven starts, Parker Messick has a 2.59 ERA, Payton Tolle has a 2.36 ERA. The bullpens over the last two weeks are at 2.22 and 2.03, respectively. The Red Sox aren’t hitting anyone lately and the Guardians aren’t known for their bats. The weather at Fenway calls for temps in the 50s with a 15 mph wind blowing straight in. Seven of Boston's last nine games have totaled six runs or less.

Nationals rookie LHP Jackson Kent has a 6.40 ERA through seven starts and the bullpen has a 5.26 ERA in the last two weeks. In that same span, the Tigers own a .944 OPS vs. left-handers and a .944 OPS at home. So Detroit should score. Meanwhile, the Nats looked uninterested on Monday. Drew Anderson, who has a 2.36 ERA since joining the rotation, can hold them.

The Rams were embarrassed in Australia by the 49ers. But this team remains the Super Bowl favorite. Expect an emphatic answer from Matthew Stafford and the defense, even without Myles Garrett. The Giants ran through a sloppy Cowboys defense; this will be a true test for the young Jaxson Dart.

The Nationals and Tigers each have starters making season debuts. For Washington, DJ Herz is coming off Tommy John and allowed nine runs over 18 minor league innings. The left-hander faces a Tigers order that has managed over one run just once in the last five games, but has an .897 OPS off left-handers since Sept. 7. Detroit’s River Ryan is coming off a three-month hamstring injury; he was a key part of the Tarik Skubal trade. Both are likely to be on a pitch count, which aids the Tigers and their better bullpen.

No Sam Darnold for the Seahawks, but Drew Lock is a decent No. 2 option. Seattle won’t take Arizona lightly after the Cardinals’ dominant win over the Chargers. But you never bet against Jacoby Brissett in his first game of a season. After that, have fun. Brissett had a couple INTs dropped by the Chargers, and a blocked punt that offered a free seven points isn’t likely here. Arizona may be better than advertised, but the Seahawks’ defense was great vs. Drake Maye (without star safety Nick Emmanwori, who is back). The Seahawks have a strong history of road success under Mike Macdonald.

Houston’s defense was gashed by Josh Allen and the Bills. Look for a renewed focus from that unit vs. Joe Burrow, who’s been limited in practice (back). I’m not sure the Texans’ offense is as good as it looked vs. Buffalo either, but it has a gameplan for production and I still see Houston as having the best overall defense in the league. Baker Mayfield gifted three fumbles and the Bengals nearly still lost at home.

The Steelers’ offense certainly wasn’t great in the first game of the Rodgers-McCarthy reboot, and against a lesser opponent in the banged-up Falcons. But the Patriots didn’t look any good either. No A.J. Brown is going to continue to hurt for New England. I don’t think either team is going to light up the scoreboard, but this total is just a little too low for me. So we’ll take the points in what has the makings of a field goal game.

Finally, this moved to +3 ... Is Cooper Rush really any worse than Michael Penix or Tua Tagovailoa? The Falcons’ offense was listless in Week 1, but that was vs. a strong Steelers team and Rush was a late start decision, dealing with a back issue of his own. Now the team is more prepared, they’re at home and they face a Panthers defense that gave up 552 yards and 59 points to the Bears. Carolina hasn’t covered a game as a favorite in nearly five years (0-12). Bijan Robinson should have a day vs. a Panthers D that was gashed for 291 rush yards last week and couldn’t stop the run last year either.

The Eagles have some injury concerns heading into Week 2, but the Titans were really bad in a 23-10 home loss to the Jets, especially on offense. Do we think the O will look better vs. the Eagles? Philly should have rolled the Commanders but slip-ups in defense and an uninspired offense hurt those of us who backed the Eagles ATS (myself included). Those issues will be rectified here.

The Rockies haven't scored five runs in three straight home games. However, they did score five-plus runs in six straight prior to that; they average 5.1 rpg at Coors all season. Mariners RHP Bryce Miller has a 7.29 ERA over his last seven starts, the Mariners' bullpen ERA this month is 4.64, and the Rockies own an .856 home OPS in September.

Cam Schlittler gets to put a stamp on a Cy Young-level season, facing a D'backs lineup that's scored 2-3 runs in three straight. The Yankees are on an 8-2 run, and the bats have tallied eight-plus runs in three of four. Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt struggled vs. the Yankees in one prior start and was worked over by the Rangers last time out.

Poor Nationals LHP Andrew Alvarez has yet to win a game in 15 starts because the bullpen behind him stinks. His ERA is 2.37 over this last seven starts; his last outing, he allowed one hit over seven frames and still didn't get the W. Washington has scored six-plus runs in four of five games. The Cards' bats are struggling and Michael McGreevy has had issues in innings 4-5.

Toronto has Dylan Cease on the mound, who is 7-2 with a 2.12 ERA over his last 15 games. All season on the road, he’s 8-1 with a 1.89 ERA. Countering him is Kumar Rocker, who owns a 6.16 ERA in his last seven starts and is 3-10 at home. Recent offensive numbers favor the Blue Jays as well. Toronto has scored at least five runs in four of its last five games and its OPS vs. right-handers the last two weeks is nearly 200 points higher than Texas’.

Each team starts a left-hander, Tampa with Ian Seymour (9-6, 4.27 ERA), Boston with Ranger Suarez (7-4, 3.33). Therein lies an advantage for the Rays. Over the last two weeks, Tampa’s OPS vs. LHPs is a modest .709. Boston is at .501, with a .535 OPS on the road in that span as well. Over his last 11 games. Seymour has allowed 2+ runs in nine of them, but no more than three runs in any. He went four innings at home vs. Tampa in May and allowed just one hit. Suarez has been either dominant or very hittable of late. Boston's bullpen ERA the last two weeks is 1.95; we’re avoiding that here.

Both the Lions and Bills scored 30 points in Week 1. They also both allowed 30 points. Detroit got gashed for over 400 yards by Tyler Shough and the Saints. But you know Dan Campbell will have the Lions at a higher level of focus for this one. Buffalo was one-dimensional offensively; Campbell can exploit. Jared Goff went off for 494 yards and five TDs vs. the Bills in 2024. We’ll take the points in what should be a back-and-forth affair.