Victor Wembanyama scored only 20 points on 4-of-15 shooting in the Spurs’ Game 5 loss to OKC. It’s clear the Spurs need Wemby to score to be successful. In their two wins, he has 41 and 33 points. In the three losses, 21, 26 and 20. He shot 22 and 25 times in the wins, and 15 or 16 in the defeats. The Spurs are unbeaten in the playoffs when he shoots 18 or more times, and 6-6 when he doesn’t. It’s do-or-die time, so the Spurs must feed the beast.

Discounting the ugly Game 4 that featured just 185 points, the other four games have produced 231, 235, 237 and 241. That’s more on par with season results. On the year, these teams allowed a combined 218.4 ppg, but they also scored 238.

My favorite prop play all series. After barely playing in Game 1, OKC adjusted and gave their starting center Isaiah Hartenstein more minutes. The result: R/A totals of 18 and 12 the next two games. He got 31 minutes in Game 5 and had 15 rebounds and four assists (plus 12 points). He should continue to get time on the court. This is still below his 12.9 R/A season average. I'll back it again.

Skenes has been hit hard the last two outings, allowing nine runs over 10 innings in losses to the Phillies and Blue Jays. He also had just two strikeouts vs. Toronto. Skenes had never allowed even three runs in two straight starts, and he’s still never lost three in a row. Expect an all-in bounce-back here. He’d struck out at least seven in five straight starts before the Toronto game.

Braves LHP Chris Sale is dealing. Over his last seven starts, he’s 5-2 with a 1.17 ERA. He also has eight-plus strikeouts in four of his last five starts. Break down some splits and his K totals dip. In two daytime starts, 12 combined strikeouts. He has seven or fewer punchouts in three of five on the road. The Red Sox strikeout rate this month vs. LHPs is good. It equates to 3.9 strikeouts over 20 outs. Sale is good but metrics suggest seven or fewer strikeouts.

Nobody hits left-handers like the New York Yankees. Royals LHP Noah Cameron found that out earlier, allowing five runs on seven hits, including three HR, in just four innings. The pinstripes can get to him and a Royals pen with a 5.36 ERA since mid-May. Gerrit Cole looked like Gerrit Cole in his first outing, allowing two runs over six innings.

Old pitchers like them day games. Kevin Gausman is 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA for matinees and he’s on a roll in general, allowing one run over his last 12.1 IP. We’ll back him and Toronto’s hot bullpen against Eury Perez, who is 0-4 with a 7.04 ERA on the road. Neither team has been consistent with the bats, but the Blue Jays are in a far better position here.

Only 185 points were scored in Game 4. That was ugly. But the previous three games delivered us 231, 235 and 237 points. That’s more on par with what to expect. On the year, they allowed a combined 218.4 ppg, and poured in 238. This number is just too low.

Spurs power forward Julian Champagnie had 11, 8 and 10 points in the opening three games before laying an offensive egg in Game 4, like most everyone else. He was 1-for-7 from the field and 0-for-5 on 3’s. But he’s not a focus of the OKC defense, and shot 8-12 times in the previous games, nearly all 3’s. The line on his 3’s is 1.5 but the odds are nearly -200, so we’ll go this route for a half-unit.

After playing just 12 minutes in Game 1, Isaiah Hartenstein finally got the shot he deserved and had PRA totals of 18 and 12 in Games 2 and 3. His Game 4 total of 10 wasn’t bad considering he managed just 18 minutes. He averaged 12.9 R/A on the season. Scoring could be a challenge, but Hartenstein can still get the ball and work some inside-out game, and crash the glass.

It seems plausible that the Cavaliers find the pride to get past the Knicks here and keep the series going. But the last two games the Knicks have outscored the Cavs by double figures in either first quarter or third quarter and there’s been no counter-rally. The Cavs have been outscored by 42 points the last two with James Harden on the court. The first two series, the Knicks had closeout games on the road, and won them by 30 and 51 points. They’re not taking the night off.

This one’s about the pitching. Trey Yesavage has a 1.05 ERA in five starts. Janson Junk is at 5.07 through 10 and it’s worse on the road. Toronto’s bullpen is also better. Miami just swept the Mets but because New York couldn’t hit. The Blue Jays can hit, especially at home.

Jesus Luzardo of the Phillies and Randy Vasquez of the Padres are in good spots here. After a tough start to 2026, Luzardo has given up over two runs just once in his last six starts. Vasquez is 5-2 with a 2.96 ERA. They each face lineups with OPS numbers in the mid-.500’s the last two weeks vs. the handedness of these hurlers. Philly has managed more than one run just once in the last four games, San Diego over two runs just once in four. We’ll play both starters.

Nick Lodolo has a 7.20 ERA through three starts and hasn’t lasted six innings in any of them. The bullpen behind him has a 7.11 ERA since May 11. The Mets’ offense didn’t show up in Miami (two runs in three games!) but have hit left-handers pretty well of late, and have definitely been better at home. Nolan McLean got smacked by the Nationals his last start; that was the first time he’d allowed over three runs (nine starts).

Josh Hart exploded for 26 points in the Knicks’ Game 2 win. But he also shot 21 times, by far more attempts than any game this season and 10 more than Game 1. In the first two rounds, Hart scored 14-plus three times in 10 games. It was an odd anomaly, one in which nobody else on the team scored 20. Expect a better defensive effort from the desperate Cavaliers, and for Hart to dip back down to his usual 8-10 shots.