Sal Stewart has an excellent chance to surpass 1.5 total bases and hit a home run, given his clear matchup advantage against Mike Burrows. Burrows has a troubling 1.91 HR/9 allowed and a 41.9% fly-ball rate. Stewart reinforces his outlook with elite power metrics, including a .522 xSLG (90th percentile) and a 94th percentile barrel rate. Great American Ball Park’s 1.28 HR factor—the second highest in the NL—further boosts his potential. Additionally, the Astros' bullpen ranks last in ERA, hits, and home runs allowed. Stewart seeks to homer in back-to-back games for the third time this season.

Sal Stewart has an excellent chance to surpass 1.5 total bases and hit a home run, given his clear matchup advantage against Mike Burrows. Burrows has a troubling 1.91 HR/9 allowed and a 41.9% fly-ball rate. Stewart reinforces his outlook with elite power metrics, including a .522 xSLG (90th percentile) and a 94th percentile barrel rate. Great American Ball Park’s 1.28 HR factor—the second highest in the NL—further boosts his potential. Additionally, the Astros' bullpen ranks last in ERA, hits, and home runs allowed. Stewart seeks to homer in back-to-back games for the third time this season.

I'm on the Astros today despite their losing five straight games when Mike Burrows starts. Lefty Nick Lodolo makes his first start of the season after he nursed a blister on his left index finger. The Astros have won three of their last five, with the two losses coming at home against the Dodgers. The Reds have dropped their last seven games and fallen into last place in the NL Central, despite a 20-18 record. Four of the Reds last five losses have been by one run. They lost an entire seven-game road trip, and I think the losing continues at home. Astros to win.

The Reds are hitting the ball, especially off right-handers, and the Astros aren’t, especially off left-handers. Houston starter Mike Burrows is 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA on the road, so the Reds should score. Both these bullpens stink lately, so the edge goes to Cincy’s bats and to tough LHP Nick Lodolo, who makes his season debut with no limitations.

I think the first "lull" might be coming. Starting to see some underdogs winning regularly. I am incapable of those (do like +1.5), so if this continues might be break off time and catch up on House of the Dragon. There are usually 3-4 "lulls" per season. Right before the AS break is the big one. Again, though, not going to change who I am and just be particular. Houston's Mike Burrows might be the worst starting pitcher in the majors. Thought same on Slade Cecconi on Thursday (they had him B1 but blew it with bases loaded), too, but that's baseball for you. Burrows only play, so if a pitching change ...