If it comes down to 90-89. which side would you prefer? ...

One of these teams can't stop covering ...

Rebounding margin and three-point shooting are key metrics to evaluate in this game ...

Hard to ignore some dominant trends in this contest ...

Elite D and no pace has me feeling a certain way about this game ...

I'd lay up to 9.5 with the Terps. Much has been made about their weak bench, but it showed up big for them in the tourney opener. They got key starters some rest. The inside combo of Julian Reese and Derik Queen will dictate this game. Colorado State lacks that kind of interior presence. The Rams' 6-11 sophomore, Nikola Djapa, has 32 rebounds all season. The Rams lack the Terps' seasoning, as they play a ton of underclassmen. Colorado State's negative assist-to-turnover ratio will be an issue versus an elite defensive team (No. 6 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom). Maryland creates lots of turnovers, can press on a moment's notice, and uses an array of defensive looks that can confound unfamiliar opponents.

These are high-scoring teams, but will Illinois shoot 3 ball that well again? Hmm. Poor road/neutral shooting all season. This is 2nd highest total for ILL all season and KY, playing wild games in SEC, played only 4 games that closed higher. ILL 6-6 O/U outside Big 10. KY 4-2 under in neutral setting. Unders were 13-3 Fri and tend to be the play this time of year. Expect these teams to feel each other out early. Nerves will lead to missed shots. 2 of last 21 ILL games are over this total - they allowed Iowa to score 94 and Duke to score 110 to put those games over 170. Three of last 12 and 4 of last 16 KY games are over this.

Duke is top 4 on O and D. Not content to win; they want to smash people. and with Cooper Flagg back that what I expect to happen here. The have covered 9 of 11 - blowing a huge lead in 3rd game vs UNC without Flagg. I don't believe Baylor can keep pace, 320th in KenPom pace. If they have to play from behind - they will - it's gonna be a problem. Baylor is middling shooting the 3-ball and were worst team in Big 12 defending the deep ball. That's a problem. Baylor is not special on boards and need 2nd chances. Devils have 23 wins by 12+ points and 8 by 11 or less. Duke 11-1 ATS when laying between 8-19 points.

Gators covered 12 of last 14, letting up vs Norfolk State late and slipping up at UGA. They get up for all the big ones and covered 11 of those 12 games by multiple possessions. This is a flawed Huskies team that got by on reputation and Vegas favored them too much - they are 4-6 ATS vs the last 10 NCAA tourney teams they have faced. Huskies don't lose by double digits that often but this Florida team is special. Twelve of their last 15 wins are by 10+ and two were by 9. Trend has been favorites covering fairly easy. Florida is too balanced. UCONN (13-17-1 ATS) vulnerble defensively; they will need to pick up pace big time here and that's not them.

Auburn has been less than impressive for several weeks now and their first half vs ALA ST was fairly dreadful and they seem too loose-goosey for my liking. They've failed to cover 5 straight and 7 of 9 and failed to cover all 7 of those games by 3+ points. Jays have covered 4 of 6, played SEC teams very tough early in season, beat St John's, won at UCONN are a top 40 KenPom O and D team, hold teams to 70 or less, excel on boards with a legit rebounding margin and had best assist/TO rate in Big East. Creighton has bodies and can get physical and basically won a road game with east vs Louisville. Tigers get too three-happy; inconsistent lately.

I still don't buy Michigan even on his little four-game run they are on. They turn the ball over way too much, are prone to scoring lags and their backcourt is pretty hit or miss. Athletic teams like the Aggies will present problems and they will be up for the challenge of the Wolverines' two big men. This is usually right around where Big 10 teams hit a wall and all the extra hoop MICH played running to a conference tourney title might not help them much here. I think A&M will be a real problem for any top seed. Battle tested. Aggies will likely cover here (14-7-1 ATS after a win), but I'm playing it a little safer. Turnovers will doom MICH.

Johnnies offense continued to evolve as the season went along and they are in ripe form against a fairly middling Arkansas team. SEC second-class getting picked off pretty early in this tourney, eh? Razorbacks can't rebound well (12th in SEC in reb margin) and facing a team that owns the glass. ARK really suffers to get offensive rebounds and second chance shots and are bad from 3 (33%). STJ allows just 31% from behind arc and are elite defensively overall. Johnies cover 5 straight and 11-3-1 ATS in road/neutral spots. ARK 7-10 ATS in R/N. STJ can bully them some here and are the super team at both ends of the court. SJU averaging 81.6/G over last 5 games.

This could be a real slog. McNeese is 277th in pace and Purdue is 303. McNeese wants to slow you down and beat you up and win a low-scoring game. They don't shoot the three ball that well and won't give away easy looks on opponent's threes. This is a top 60 defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 40%. They are under in 9 of their last 13. Neither team great at the foul line. Boilers under in 8 of last 11 road/neutral games. They may have to collapse more to defend two-point shots. McNeeses 6-2 under when total between 140-144 points. Purdue could get a little tight here.

Tried to be impressed by Ducks on multiple occasions the last 3 months and found them tepid. You may notice me fading Big 10 teams as if the conference was overrated yet again, yeah it's not a fluke. Liberty is a top 25 3-point shooting team and top 50 KenPom D team and they protect the ball and won't flinch here. Oregon peaked at Christmas; 7-13 ATS since Jan. 1 and seemed uninspired vs lesser competition. Liberty incredibly stingy vs the three ball should they work a lead and they can be very frustration to play against. Liberty 9-4-1 ATS with 4+ days between games. Have won 11 of their last 12 games. Flames winning a low scoring game would be no shocker.

Bryant as much size as any team in the tournament including 6-6 and 6-8 shot makers. They excel at rim defending, this Earl Timberlake kid has some ish to him and and the size and dexterity of the backcourt can be a problem. They can shoot the ball and unlike some teams their transfers are from Power 4 schools, not D 2. Sparty won't want run with them and Sparty can't shoot the three-ball and Izzo will be playing the long run. Fighting for 40 mins to run this up by 20 doesn't seem like the way they will play this. Bryant can make them work for their shots. This is more of a 12-15 point game to me.