Bruce's Picks (1 Live)
Bruce's Past Picks
Scorelines are apt to expand in pre-league play but once conference play begins, the pace seems to slow...witness IU-Indy vs. Detroit last night, landing well beneath the 183 total in the Horizon. Something similar perhaps in the Big West, as CSF has been running to its heart's content in pre-league play, scoring at a brisk 88.1 ppg, but not too efficiently, hoisting nearly70 shots pg and connecting on barely 30% of its triples. Cal Poly has been involved in some racehorse-like games, too, and is hitting its triples (35%) better than the Titans, but the Mustangs don't have an especially-efficient offense, either (just 42% FGs), and almost all of the scoring comes from the perimeter in Mike DeGeorge's effective 5_G lineup. Play Cal Poly-CSF Under
As they play at a tedious pace for Russell Turner, the Anteaters haven't had the look of a margin team yet this season. Three-point shooting continues to be a concern for UCI, which is hitting just above 28% beyond the arc, as its overall stats have been bloated by early wins over lower-division foes like Bethesda and Lincoln. Across the past five games (three of those being outright losses), the Anteaters are scoring roughly 64 ppg, with top scorer soph G Jurian Dixon hitting only 31% from the floor across the last three. UCR has been representative for first-year HC Gus Argenal, whose far-flung collection of transfers includes some under-the-radar specials like former D-II G Andrew Henderson (17.4 ppg). Play UCR
Various Big West onlookers believe it will be UCSB emerging from what looks like a real scrum in the conference. Joe Pasternack's side survived a couple of close calls last week in the Resorts World Tourney at Las Vegas and has held its own vs. a moderately-challenging pre-league slate., Portal add G Miro Little (via Utah) is turning into a useful component at 13 ppg, and former St Mary's & UConn G Aidan Mahaney had a string of three straight 17-point games in early November. The Beach's 76-72 win over UCSD on the weekend is likely more an indictment of the Toreros, as regional sources suggest Chris Acker's team is no better than last year's 7-25 entry. Play UCSB
UCLA can be glad last week's loss at Cal wasn't a conference game. (Ditto for an earlier loss to former Pac-12 foe Arizona...again, outside of league play these days). For the second time already, Mick Cronin has reportedly read the riot act to his Bruins, though better news is that high-priced transfer PG Donovan Dent is expected to be ready to go after a recurrence of his leg injury in the game vs. the Golden Bears. No doubt, Cronin needs better from Dent, scoring only 11 ppg while shooting just 36% from the floor (and a woeful 9% beyond the arc). U-Dub isn't in the greatest shape, either, with various frontline maladies, exposed in last week's loss to Colorado in Palm Springs. Play UCLA
Let's see if UVU can begin to function away from Orem, where the Wolverines have played most of their games this season. Not tonight, however, back to a Mountain West destination which has proven a problem for UVU, having lost at Fresno and (big) at Boise State. The Aztecs might welcome a chance to face a foe that might be at a disadvantage after slugging it out with heavyweights at the Players Era event last week, and in retrospect walking away 1-2 in Las Vegas wasn't all that bad, especially how SDSU looked when on more-even terms against Oregon. Brian Dutcher's team is hitting almost 41% beyond the arc and is getting solid contributions from several, including 6-5 wing Reese Dixon-Waters (14 ppg). Play SDSU.
WAC favorite Cal Baptist has shown enough the past month to trust the Lancers getting this sort of price in Provo. Monday's loss at Colorado was CBU's first of the season, but the Lancers made it close and stayed well within the double-digit spread at Boulder. Allowing only 64 ppg as it controls the pace, CBU makes it difficult for opponents to stretch the lead. Rick Croy also has some established offensive weapons such as G Dominique Daniels (18 ppg) when CBU needs a bucket. After a rousing November and success at Disney World last week, this looks a potential flat spot for the Cougars, who don't play next until December 9 vs. Clemson. Play Cal Baptist (at Salt Lake City)
Northwestern never seems to go away in its games...only twice since last season have the Cats lost by more than the 10.5 spread in this game tonight at Madison. That's mostly because NU has enough offense to rarely lose contact, thanks in good part to high-scoring 6-7 F Nick Martinelli, maintaining a similar scoring pace (20.6 ppg) as a year ago (20.5 ppg). Chris Collins has the added bonus this season of a legit post scoring threat in Cincy transfer Arrinten Page (15 ppg). Wiscy couldn't shake the Cats in either of their matchups last season and returns to Kohl Center having lost 2 of 3 on its travels, including an 11-point loss vs. TCU in San Diego last Friday. Play Northwestern
It looks like the high-scoring reputation of the jumpin' Jags is preceding them into Motown tonight. No matter the Jags' 91.6 ppg offense, the totals are being stretched to the limit in IUI games when they're posted north of 180. As the case last Saturday against Morehead State when an otherwise brisk 85-80 win for the Jags was nowhere near the posted 182 on the totals side. The host Titans certainly don't play at that sort of racehorse pace because if they did, their very subpar 24.5% shooting from beyond the arc would prove quite an obstacle to overcome. There are no foolproof go-to scorers on the Detroit roster, either, with ex-EMU G Orlando Lovejoy (12.7 pgp) coming closest. Play IU Indy-Detroit Under.
Loyola is slumping so badly that even noted local celebrity Jerry Berliant hasn't been seen around Gentile Arena lately. If Berliant isn't there, something must be wrong with the Ramblers, and it is...1-7 to start the season. Loyola has one of the nation's worst offenses, scoring only 65 ppg (and not at much as 60 the past three games) while barely hitting 40% from the floor. The Chips might not be much better, saving their best offense for the likes of Coppin State and lower-division Adrian for new HC Andy Bronkema, who valued defense at previous stop Ferris State. He should maybe value shooting, too, especially beyond the arc, where CMU is hitting barely 30% of its 3-balls. Play CMU-Loyola Under.
Tom Izzo has his Spartans flying high at No. 7 in the polls after recent romps past Kentucky and North Carolina...but might this actually be MSU's toughest test yet? Iowa has immediately absorbed the shrewd tactics of new HC Ben McCollum, who thus far is doing everything in Iowa City as he did last year at Drake. The Hawkeyes play defense (only 61.1 ppg allowed; ranks 7th) and remain absurdly efficient, hitting 53% from the floor (ranks 8th) as Drake transfer Bennett Stirtz (18.6 ppg) plays at an All-Big Ten level. True, soph G Jeremy Fears Jr (19 points vs. the Tar Heels) looks like Izzo's newest star, but pulling clear of McCollum's Iowa might prove a chore. Play Iowa.
Hammered already by the likes of Wisconsin and Wake Forrest, stepping up in class looks to be painful for the Camels. So far, new HC John Andrzejek (via Todd Golden's Florida staff) and his expected go-go offense has mostly misfired, especially beyond the arc where Campbell only hits 26.8%, with Robert Morris transfer G DJ Smith still firing almost 8 triples pg to little avail. Then there is defense (or there isn't), allowing more than 80 ppg--ranking 297th in scoring. Meanwhile, Big Ten sources say Mike Rhoades has the 7-1 Nittany Lions on the upswing, scoring at nearly 83 ppg while hitting almost 51% from the floor, while five scored DDs in Saturday's 90-59 romp past Sacred Heart. Play Penn State.
We're about time find out how good Cal Baptist might be. The Lancers are unbeaten into December and capped off their sterling November with a Saturday win at Oregon State. Defense has been superb for Rick Croy's troops, allowing only 63 ppg (good for 17th in the country), while there is star power offensively led by G Dominique Daniels (17.8 ppg; 19 ppg thru career at CBU). The host Buffs are 7-0, too, in what might be a recovery year for HC Tad Boyle, capped by a pair of double-digit wins in Palm Springs vs. USF and Washington last week. Maintaining the 51.6% FG shooting, however, and extending the margin might be a challenge, especially if the Lancers keep controlling the pace. Play CBU.
As we're not sure U-Dee has a second gear, and believe Iona does, this might be a rough assignment for the Blue Hens tonight in Newark (that's New-ARK, DE!). Dan Geriot's Gaels make the ride down the NJ Turnpike from New Rochelle with five DD scorers led by go-go transfer G CJ Anthony (15.3), now flourishing after getting precious little court time at Cincinnati, and one of five DD scorers for Iona, which is also hitting 38% of its triples. Meanwhile, CUSA insiders note the lack of a sharp edge at U-Dee (just 68.8 ppg) where Martin Ingelsby once again had to go hard into the portal after losing much of last year's roster to transfers. Play Iona.
We reiterate previous notes that all Big Five games should be played at the Palestra, but, whatever. 'Nova is one of the main reasons they don't, preferring the on-campus Pavilion instead, but wherever they play in Philly, the Wildcats look like they have the edge for the moment in these local battles under new HC Kevin WIllard. Nova took apart La Salle on the road twelve nights ago and has won five straight since the opener at BYU, with five DD scorers featuring JMU transfer G Bryce Lindsay (19 ppg). Meanwhile, Adam Fisher's Owls took a couple of heavy losses last week at Disney World when their defense was shot full of holes by UCSD and Rhode Island. Play Villanova.
