Bruce's Picks (3 Live)
Just in case Belmont doesn't win Arch Madness next month, do the Bruins have a Big Dance at-large case? Maybe, as Casey Alexander's team has pulled clear in the Valley after nine straight wins, and rates highly in various metrics, with a few more chances for Quad 1 & 2 wins (against whom they are 4-0 already this season). At 22-3 overall, the Bruins hit from all angles with their near-84 ppg offense led by ex-TCU sharpshooter Tyler Lundblade (15.5 ppg), who scored 24 in Friday's win at UIC. Belmont's 51.7% FG accuracy and 40.4% triples accuracy both rank 6th nationally. Meanwhile, lots of back-and-forth (3-3 last six) from Brian Wardle's Bradley, which lost this matchup by 10 in Nashville on January 1. Play Belmont.
After six straight wins, has Will Wade's NC State moved far enough away from the Selection Sunday cut-line to be considered a lock for the Big Dance? Wade worked the portal masterfully in the offseason, the result a balanced lineup with five double-digit scorers led by ex-Texas Tech F Darrion Williams at 15 ppg. NCS hits from all angles, too, scoring nearly 86 ppg and connecting on better than 40% beyond the arc, where it ranks seventh nationally. The 'Ville looks good for the Dance and the recent return of star frosh G Mikel Brown Jr (15.4 ppg) is a plus, but the Cards have done most of their winning in the ACC vs. teams in the bottom half of the table. Play NC State
Usually we'd hesitate to go with a team after such a rousing win at St John's did against Big East leader UConn on Friday. Not tonight, however, as we suspect there is little chance the Red Storm (nine wins in a row) suddenly goes flat against Papa Rick Pitino's son Richard and his Xavier, which already took a good shot at the Johnnies in Cincinnati two weeks ago and put a scare into Papa in an 88-83 St John's escape. The Musketeers, however, have absorbed a couple of heavy losses since and been outclassed multiple times on the Big East trail, and dealing with the Storm's excellent balance, near 85 ppg offense, and productive frontliners Zuby Ejifor and Bryce Hopkins looms difficult. Play St John's.
Tulane has played in some bad luck for Ron Hunter but might have forged a turnaround with the rousing win last Sunday at Memphis. The Wave had lost five straight often-grating decisions before winning at FedEx Forum, though along the way have been able to trust sharpshooter Ryan Brumbaugh, who scored the winner in the final seven seconds vs. the Tigers as the last of his 27 points. Brumbaugh has been one of the American's most-consistent weapons, too, and has led Tulane in scoring seven times in the last nine games. Meanwhile, Wichita might rate a darkhorse in the looming American Tourney but has not been as comfy on the road, where it has lost three of its last four. Play Tulane
The walls might be closing in on Wes Miller, as his Bearcats have slipped beneath .500 (11-12) to the bottom tier of the Big 12. Not what the doctor ordered in a likely win-or-else season at Cincy. The problem in recent games is easy to identify...offense, or lack thereof; the Bearcats were held to 54 points in each of their last two games. Having Houston put on the clamps is one thing, but letting West Virginia do the same is another. Meanwhile, UCF is riding the bubble and will be on high alert after a 1-point escape at home vs. the Bearcats January 11, and happy not to be facing Houston after a heavy midweek loss to the Cougs. Play UCF
Note the Denton connection as the last two North Texas coaches square off for the first time in their new jobs. Ross Hodge of course served as Grant McCasland's top assistant for six years with the Mean Green until taking over UNT in 2023 after McCasland moved to Lubbock. Both preached a patient, defense-oriented approach that got UNT an NIT title just before McCasland moved, and while Texas Tech has been more apt to run with McCasland, the Red Raiders are also comfy playing the sorts of grinders their coach appreciates. As for Hodge, a chip off the old block, as his Mountaineers are playing in the old North Texas style, as recent scorelines indicate (113, 116, 113 in succession). Play Texas Tech-West Virginia Under
Maybe there's something about this matchup that simply doesn't work for American leader Tulsa? That's a question worth asking after the Golden Hurricane lost 93-78 at home to South Florida on January 10. The Bulls led almost wire-to-wire, controlled the boards 41-31, and saw G Wes Enis lead all scorers with 32 points. Tulsa and its 87.5 ppg offense haven't lost for Eric Konkol since, but haven't played South Florida since January 10, either, and the Golden Hurricane has been cutting it pretty close the last two road games at Rice and FAU. With five double-digit scorers, USF has the artillery to cause big problems for Tulsa again and catch the Golden Hurricane at the top of the American table. Play South Florida
By Super Bowl Sunday we usually have a pretty good idea about the direction of the season for college hoop teams, and for Penn State, it's not good. Now bottom of the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions recently broke an 8-game skid only to lose by 41 in their next game at Michigan. They should come closer today vs. USC but the Trojans are viewing this trip to Happy Valley with some importance as a loss would damage Big Dance at-large credentials. Eric Musselman's team, however, has won a couple on the Big Ten trail, plus win the Maui Classic in November, and are starting to see the real Alijah Arenas, who scored a season-high 29 in Tuesday's win over Indiana. Play USC
Home court has often meant something in the Big Sky and case in point is Sac State, which earlier only played twice at the new Hornet Pavilion in a two-month span but has won three straight at home for Mike Bibby since last week. That puts the Hornets 5-0 at home in Big Sky action as Bibby has adjusted from the loss of 6-11 Bear Cherry in November, now a perimeter-oriented attack around Gs Prophet Johnson (61 points across last two) and Mikey Williams. Note PSU is setting the pace in the Sky and won handily in the first meeting, but don't see the Vikes dominating the glass as they did or hitting 55% from the floor as last month. Play Sac State
Slowly moving to the safe side of the Big Dance cut-line, the Bruins have won four of five and could easily have five in a row if not for a gnawing OT loss last week vs. Indiana. Mick Cronin's bunch did bounce back smartly earlier this week vs. Rutgers at Pauley Pavilion in arguably one of their better showings of the season, hitting 57% from the floor with 6-11 Xavier Booker playing the game of his career with 24 points on 10-for-11 FG shooting. The Huskies have made a habit of losing close games and UCLA took the Huskies' best shot in Seattle on December 3 when emerging with an 82-80 win, overcoming 29 points by UW's star frosh F Hannes Steinbach. Play UCLA
Steve Alford's Wolf Pack has been growling at home in Mountain West action and expect that to continue tonight vs. beatable Fresno. Nevada will be on alert after a 1-point escape at the Save-Mart Center last month, but has won and covered four straight and five of six in Mountain West play at Lawlor Center. The Pack also has the hottest scorer in the MW in UTEP transfer wing Corey Camper, who has went for 30_ in the last two games (more specifically 33.5 ppg). Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have recovered slightly in recent weeks but have too often gone cold, and not particularly accurate with their 3-balls (barely 32%), while not far removed from an earlier six-game losing streak. Play Nevada
Not often focusing upon Steve Lavin's USD, but upon inspection his Toreros haven't offered bad spread value, actually covering 8 of 12 despite off of back-to-back losses to Oregon State and Saint Mary's. On the WCC trail USD has covered three of five, not great but not bad, and the last two games have featured subpar production from top scorer, Wake Forest transfer G Ty-Laur Johnson (15.3 ppg), held to single digits in the losses to the Beavers and Gaels. At its own level, USD hasn't been outclassed this season, and has put up good fights vs USC and Gonzaga this season. Simply not sure we want to lay points with LMU, which had lost six straight prior to Thursday's win at USF. Play USD