Texas Tech has had some difficulty with teams with size throughout the season. It’s also unclear if they’ll have Chance McMillian back for the Sweet 16. Adou Thiero is back for the Razorbacks but could be limited moving forward according to the Coach Cal. This line hasn’t moved since it opened with the big difference here being on the offensive glass. Texas Tech is the more physical team and have very efficient around the rim. The Red Raiders average five less turnovers per game than Arkansas during the tournament and the more consistent free throw shooting team all season.

I love the Red Raiders on the money line. The Razorbacks are fortunate that St. John’s made just two 3-pointers or else they would not be in the Sweet 16. Texas Tech has a great coach and a superstar in JT Toppin. Red Raiders roll.

Clever work by John Calipari got the Porker wagon back on track, interestingly after flashy frosh G Boogie Fland went down with a hand injury in late January. Fland's absence opened the door for FAU transfer Johnell Davis, who was struggling the first two months, but has now scored double-digits in all but two games since January 25. Meanwhile, Fland has recently returned to active duty but Calipari is wisely using him off the bench and has curbed his sometimes-excessive ball usage. Arkansas has length and athleticism on the blocks to give Tech's JT Toppin problems, and similar on the perimeter, where TT has been a bit trigger-happy in the Dance (46 triples vs. UNCW?). Play Arkansas (NCAA at San Francisco).

This Arkansas team is ready for war, believing in each other and finding ways to win even when the shots aren’t falling, as evidenced by going 8-for-43 from behind the arc across wins against Kansas and St. John's. The news that Adou Thiero is available to play limited minutes is not insignificant, because Arkansas will need versatile defenders against the space of Texas Tech’s dangerous and efficient offense, but it is the size that the Red Raiders give up that could be the difference. This is a bet that Jonas Aidoo, Trevon Brazile and Big Z are not going to let JT Toppin have clear looks inside, giving Arkansas a chance to extend their tournament run.

This will be a different challenge from a skill and length perspective for the Razorbacks - akin to the SEC grind, where they were not top tier. This isn't poor-shooting St John's. Boogie Fland played a lot more than expected, which could present problems moving forward. ARK can't shoot the three ball and the Red Raiders are strong defending the paint. Tech is a top 50 rebounding margin team and ARK is just 196th. Tech is top 17 in KenPom O and D ratings, and will keep the Razors from running. Tech is 36th in EFG% and Arknsas just 116th. JT Toppin and Darrion Williams should be able to get enough of what they want inside, and Raiders superior deep shooting will cover 5.5.