Tom Izzo pushed all of the right buttons since November losses to Kansas and Memphis, skillfully managing a deep MSU roster which rotates ten players in an ever-changing mix of effective rotations, with much of the electricity provided by the backcourt of sr. Jaden Adkins & highlight-reel frosh Jase Richardson. MSU also enters Atlanta having covered 10 of 11, but it's been rolling sevens for much of that stretch as a series of close decisions continue to fall Sparty's way. While this has been a redemptive campaign for Izzo, it is worth pointing out that Sparty hasn't gotten past the Sweet 16 since 2019...when he eventually lost to a Texas Tech side coached by Chris Beard. Play Ole Miss (NCAA at Atlanta).

Ole Miss has five players averaging in double figures, along with Sean Pedulla, who has 29 more made threes than the entire Spartans squad. Michigan State is deeper, but not as experienced as the Rebels. Michigan State relies heavily on their defense and are ranked first in the country in defending the perimeter. However, their offense struggled from three and the Rebels defend the rim very well along with protecting the ball. The SEC has performed very well in this tournament and the Ole Miss offense is in better current form than the Spartans.

Chris Beard is an elite coach at scouting an opponent and preparing his team to take away their best option, and Michigan State has been a slow-starting bunch all year long. It should be noted, while I do think the first half will be lower-scoring I am not predicting a slower pace necessarily. This will be about stops on both ends of the floor by experienced teams who have great coaches. After halftime when the tweaks and adjustments get put into place the game could break open — and that’s where I lean Michigan State to continue the trend of being a second half team — but those variables are too difficult to nail down before tip.

I have my Spartans in the Elite Eight but the road ending there, and I still think that's what happens unless Michigan upsets No. 1 Auburn in the other half of the South Region on Friday. If there's a Michigan-Michigan State regional final Sunday, I'm gonna have to try to find a way to get to Atlanta last minute. Ole Miss has been so impressive in this Dance largely by shooting nearly 50% from deep. MSU was No. 1 in the nation during the season in 3-point percentage defense. Not betting against Tom Izzo in this round; he's 9-0 all-time vs. SEC teams in the NCAA Tournament, so maybe I do prefer Auburn on Sunday.

Michigan State can point to a February 11th wake-up call with Indiana at home that they lost as an 11.5-point favorite. That would swing itself into good fortune over the last seven regular season wins and 3-1 in the postseason, a total of 10-1 ATS. What also happened is Michigan State's defense played stronger and more consistently and went under 10 of their last 12 games. For the year, Michigan State is 29-6 covering 24 of those games and keeping another 24 under the total, which also might be a good idea for this game against Mississippi. But I also like playing minus-2.5. Sold. Michigan State.

Sparty unders are real, especially when Tom Izzo has time to prepare (22-9 under with 2+ days off). The offense remains inconsistent, with only one gifted scorer in Jase Richardson. But 10 kids play and they all defend. Their four bigs will excel at trading fouls and rim defense here. It's a way of life for them. Sparty is under in 13 of its last 16 games. They are under in 8 of last 10 road/neutral games. The Rebels have athletes to keep up when State runs to transition attempts. Sparty's lack of three ball game should help us here. Rebs 91 points vs. Iowa State was an anomaly. Their prior 8 road/neutral games averaged 72 points. This might be played in 60s.