I tried to play this on Monday, but Chase Burns was scratched due to a minor illness. He's now coming back with two extra days of rest for his arm. He's been over 6.5 strikeouts in six of his last seven starts and eight of 11 overall. The Royals have a bad offense and have never seen him and his electric stuff before.
The Padres have lost seven of eight and are 13-18 since April 27. The offense is punchless and has to deal with Cristopher Sanchez, who hasn't given up a run since April. He's approaching history and everyone in a Phillies uniform will be extra fired up to back him up. Meantime, Padres starter Walker Buehler has an 8.04 road ERA this season. Everything is in place for a multi-run Phillies win.
There's some juice, but this line should be a lot juicier. The Marlins are a pitiful 8-19 on the road this season and starter Sandy Alcantara has been lit up in his last two starts (and three of his last five). Washington starter Cade Cavalli is underrated, as are the feisty Nats.
The Rockies have been doing an awful lot of losing lately and have a bullpen game going for Thursday in Arizona. Eduardo Rodriguez, a lefty, has been excellent at home this season and the Rockies struggle against lefties. We'll grab plus odds here instead of laying heavy juice for a moneyline play.
The Cubs had a terrible road trip, but they are coming home now and are 18-5 with a +43 run differential in Wrigley so far this season. The Shota Imanaga vs. Brandon Sproat pitching matchup also favors the Cubs, rather heavily.
The Rockies have struck out almost 30% of the time against lefties this season, tops in the majors in that category. Jesus Luzardo is a high-K lefty. He's inconsistent, but has 18 strikeouts against zero walks in 13 1/3 innings in his last two starts. The Rockies are a bad offense on the road, which is a bonus, especially since they just left Coors Field (there's historically been an adjustment period).
Dylan Cease has 25 strikeouts in 16 innings at home this season. Overall, he's struck out 56 in 38 1/3 innings and, well, that's what he's always done. He's a strikeout machine. He struck out the Angels 12 times earlier this year and 10 times last year. The Angels have the highest K% against right-handed pitching in all of baseball.
Ragans has been a totally different pitcher at home vs. on the road this season. At home, he's one earned run with 19 strikeouts in 12 innings. He gets Cleveland at home tonight. His line against the Guardians earlier this season looks ugly, but he struck out the first two batters he faced before taking a line drive off his pitching hand and then things unraveled, very likely due to a small injury. He's fine now. He's run past this number.
Sandy Alcantara hasn't gone more than six innings since April 7, but one of the bigger workhorses in the league is due to go deeper. The Orioles' offense isn't scary at all right now and when Alcantara is throwing well, he loves to get deep into the game. I like a long outing today.
Cade Cavalli is in a very nice groove right now, notably with 10 strikeouts in each of his last two games. The new front office in D.C. has worked well with him and he's a changed pitcher. The Twins haven't seen him before and rank sixth in K% against righties, too.
The Mets have now won two straight which coincided with Juan Soto's return, so they're feeling good in that clubhouse and thinking they just needed him back. Now they get to face the Rockies, who are 3-10 on the road and always terrible once they leave Coors. Ace Freddy Peralta is on the hill for the Mets, too. I sense a blowout.
The Cubs offense has somewhat broken out in the last week, but still isn't fully firing. There were good signs from Michael Busch and Alex Bregman on Monday. The Cubs obliterated Jesus Luzardo last week and see him again. Meanwhile, Cubs starter Shota Imanaga has a 1.06 ERA in his last three starts, dominated the Phillies last time out and the Phillies are putrid against lefties (.176/.274/.275).
The gap between these two teams in terms of talent is close to as big as any two in the majors. The Braves are flying high and the Nats' record is still better than it should be. Nats starter Foster Griffin got hit by the Pirates last time out and the Braves' offense is better than the Pirates. Reynaldo Lopez can hold the Nats in check, too, but the biggest difference here is the bullpens. The Nats have a pitiful relief corps while the Braves' back-end stellar trio of Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias are all rested after not being needed Monday.
Chase Burns was shelled the last time out, but I like a bounce back here against a team that has never seen him and is going so poorly this season. The Giants have actually been arguably the worst team in baseball. I like the now-powerful Reds (Sal Stewart! Elly De La Cruz!) to win easily here at home on getaway day.
The Mets are not in a good place right now and the Dodgers are the best team in baseball, at home. Shohei Ohtani is dominant on the mound when he's right, and he is just that here in 2026. I love the plus money angle here.