We've got Chris Sale (2.06 ERA overall, 1.35 home ERA) against Griffin Canning (6.67 ERA, 7.71 road ERA). The Braves have a good offense and the Padres don't. Do the math.
Melton has struck out 6, 7, 9 and 9 batters in his last four games, respectively. He's been dominant all year with a 1.80 ERA in nine starts and the Royals haven't seen him. Plus, the Royals are without Bobby Witt Jr.
The Tigers are 22-14 since the start of June and won nine of 12 heading into the break. The road record is still bad, but they've won five of six on the road. Troy Melton (1.82 ERA in eight starts) vs. the maddeningly inconsistent Reid Detmers (7.40 ERA in his last four starts) means the pitching matchup favors the better team here, too.
The Yankees offense started to wake back up before the break and it spurred a four-game winning streak. They'll love seeing Roki Sasaki (8.61 ERA last five starts), who is prone to walks and home runs. I'm also expecting a big second half from Gerrit Cole.
The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. The Rockies are atrocious, especially on the road. Justin Wrobleski of the Dodgers is having a sneaky-great season on the mound and dominated the Rockies the last time he faced them (1 run in 7 innings). Michael Lorenzen has a 6.91 ERA and gets torched by lefties (the Dodgers have a few star lefties). Do the math here.
Tarik Skubal is back to looking like his pre-surgery self with nine strikeouts in each of his last two games. The A's are terrible, offensively, on the road, hitting .229/.304/.359 and averaging 9.25 strikeouts per game. They also have an above-average strikeout rate vs. lefties.
Gavin Williams struck out the White Sox eight times last time he saw them and he averages exactly seven strikeouts per game at home this season. The Sox are a high-strikeout team in general, too, sitting fifth in strikeout percentage in the majors.
The White Sox are a totally different team on the road, sitting now with an away record of 17-27. Guardians' starter, Gavin Williams, has a 2.74 ERA at home, too.
I tried to play this on Monday, but Chase Burns was scratched due to a minor illness. He's now coming back with two extra days of rest for his arm. He's been over 6.5 strikeouts in six of his last seven starts and eight of 11 overall. The Royals have a bad offense and have never seen him and his electric stuff before.
The Padres have lost seven of eight and are 13-18 since April 27. The offense is punchless and has to deal with Cristopher Sanchez, who hasn't given up a run since April. He's approaching history and everyone in a Phillies uniform will be extra fired up to back him up. Meantime, Padres starter Walker Buehler has an 8.04 road ERA this season. Everything is in place for a multi-run Phillies win.
There's some juice, but this line should be a lot juicier. The Marlins are a pitiful 8-19 on the road this season and starter Sandy Alcantara has been lit up in his last two starts (and three of his last five). Washington starter Cade Cavalli is underrated, as are the feisty Nats.
The Rockies have been doing an awful lot of losing lately and have a bullpen game going for Thursday in Arizona. Eduardo Rodriguez, a lefty, has been excellent at home this season and the Rockies struggle against lefties. We'll grab plus odds here instead of laying heavy juice for a moneyline play.
The Cubs had a terrible road trip, but they are coming home now and are 18-5 with a +43 run differential in Wrigley so far this season. The Shota Imanaga vs. Brandon Sproat pitching matchup also favors the Cubs, rather heavily.
The Rockies have struck out almost 30% of the time against lefties this season, tops in the majors in that category. Jesus Luzardo is a high-K lefty. He's inconsistent, but has 18 strikeouts against zero walks in 13 1/3 innings in his last two starts. The Rockies are a bad offense on the road, which is a bonus, especially since they just left Coors Field (there's historically been an adjustment period).
Dylan Cease has 25 strikeouts in 16 innings at home this season. Overall, he's struck out 56 in 38 1/3 innings and, well, that's what he's always done. He's a strikeout machine. He struck out the Angels 12 times earlier this year and 10 times last year. The Angels have the highest K% against right-handed pitching in all of baseball.