I think we have an obvious letdown spot for UConn coming off a tremendous win against the reigning national champion Florida Gators on Tuesday night in Madison Square Garden. Here they get a visit from Sean Miller's first Texas team, and while the Longhorns have not faired well against top competition they are athletic enough to do some damage with a well-executed game plan. Speaking of game plan, Miller's Xavier team played UConn tough last year and peeled off a couple wins against the eventual national champs in 2023. This spread considers Texas way too much of a pushover given the spot and the familiarity in the coaching matchup.

Jon Scheyer wants the identity of his Duke teams to be on the defensive end of the floor, and that's where I think we have some real opportunity in these games against inferior competition. With a young team playing on the road in West Point, it might be understandable to see slightly lower production and also for Scheyer to toy with his lineups and test his depth. But it doesn't matter whether you are Cam Boozer or the 10th man on the bench, Scheyer wants to see floor-slapping defense from the Blue Devils.

The expectation is that over the course of 40 minutes the combination of Houston’s pace and defensive excellence will result in a bit less scoring for both teams than what this total suggests, and it shouldn’t be lost on anyone that both teams could be a step slow coming out of the gate after each overcoming deficits in pair of grueling and physical semifinal wins. The three-point potential from both teams — especially with the likes of Walter Clayton Jr. and LJ Cryer — make this pick dangerous, but the historical trends back up the notion that this sixth NCAA Tournament game will be lower scoring as the under is 10-4 in title games since 2010.

For all the deserved attention that goes to Houston's defense there is the somewhat less discussed aspect of Duke's defense, which ranks fifth nationally overall in defensive efficiency and second only to Houston among Final Four participants. This is a group that just held Alabama 25 points below their season scoring average in an 85-65 win and have allowed more than 70 points just twice in their last 15 games (since Feb. 12). Now, there are outcomes where Houston can win the game and still end up going under this team total but even those scenarios speak to a game that is played at a slower pace with a grinding style.

Auburn has had a run of slow starts recently, except when they faced another slow-starting team in Michigan State. The Tigers are 1-7 against the first half spread in the last eight games and 4-11 in their last 15, a span that stretches back to the loss to Florida on Feb. 8. The Gators, meanwhile, have tied or led at halftime in each of their last 10 games and can get their bench involved early to test Auburn's depth.

When Purdue’s offense is rolling, much of its success is based around a two-man game with Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn. Unfortunately in Houston the Boilermakers are facing one of the best pick-and-roll defenses in the entire country, with the Cougars not only getting stops at high level but forcing turnovers in those situations. And Houston not only has a matchup advantage against one of Purdue’s best offensive weapons but also the personnel to exploit what’s been a leaky interior defense throughout the second half of the season. LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan and Houston’s bigs should be able to get good looks at the rim and as long as they can convert it’s a game that the Cougars should be able to control.

An important note here that unlike most Sweet 16 and Elite Eight sites, this Indianapolis-based regional will not be played in an arena but Lucas Oil Stadium. Kentucky shot a combined 24-for-48 on its three-pointers in the two wins against Tennessee in the regular season, so not only are we expecting some regression in any gym but potentially a major one given the change of venue. Tennessee wants to disrupt Kentucky’s flow offensively and limit the Wildcats’ transition opportunities, so I’m expecting patient possessions and plenty of offensive rebounding efforts on the Vols’ part. Less Kentucky touches means less scoring in the game, which I see going under.

Chris Beard is an elite coach at scouting an opponent and preparing his team to take away their best option, and Michigan State has been a slow-starting bunch all year long. It should be noted, while I do think the first half will be lower-scoring I am not predicting a slower pace necessarily. This will be about stops on both ends of the floor by experienced teams who have great coaches. After halftime when the tweaks and adjustments get put into place the game could break open — and that’s where I lean Michigan State to continue the trend of being a second half team — but those variables are too difficult to nail down before tip.

This Arkansas team is ready for war, believing in each other and finding ways to win even when the shots aren’t falling, as evidenced by going 8-for-43 from behind the arc across wins against Kansas and St. John's. The news that Adou Thiero is available to play limited minutes is not insignificant, because Arkansas will need versatile defenders against the space of Texas Tech’s dangerous and efficient offense, but it is the size that the Red Raiders give up that could be the difference. This is a bet that Jonas Aidoo, Trevon Brazile and Big Z are not going to let JT Toppin have clear looks inside, giving Arkansas a chance to extend their tournament run.

Every Duke game since Feb. 14 when Cooper Flagg has been healthy has resulted in 80 or more points for the Blue Devils. Now we introduce an Arizona team that pushes the pace and started to slip a little on the defensive side at the end of the regular season. If this game plays out as the oddsmakers are expecting there will be plenty of Arizona chasing the game late, and Duke just happens to be the best free throw shooting team left in the NCAA Tournament.

The depth mismatch is impossible to ignore here, as Maryland not only leans on its starting five more than anyone else left in the tournament but Florida has a deeper rotation of bigs that could cause problems if this game gets a tight whistle down low. The Gators can endure a couple of cheap fouls to Alex Condon or Reuben Chinyelu because Thomas Waugh and Micah Handlogten are more than capable of giving you good minutes off the bench. But if Derik Queen and Julian Reese get into foul trouble, Maryland’s rebounding efforts take a huge hit in a way that’s going to totally change the matchup.

BYU has been ahead of the number consistently coming down the stretch of the season. We know the Cougars are 11-1 since Feb. 10 with the only loss coming to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament, but the performances have been exceeding the oddsmakers expectations as the team is 10-2 against the spread in that same span. The X-factor here, not just on a BYU cover but a straight-up win, is the performance of 6-9 freshman Egor Demin. When Demin is playing at a high level he makes BYU a matchup nightmare, and given his performance in the opening rounds I think he can carry it to Newark.

I’m going to jump on the other side of what I think might be an overreaction to Gonzaga absolutely pasting Georgia in the opening round. That was one of the most experienced programs of the 21st Century when it comes to the NCAA Tournament going up against a group that hadn’t been in the Big Dance in a decade. Houston is clearly on a different level, but it’s also hitting a different gear here in the tournament as made clear by a total dismantling of SIU-Edwardsville on Thursday. The Cougars’ defense can cause real problems for Gonzaga’s guards, and I think that prevents the high-powered offense from ever finding a rhythm.

BYU has continued to impress here in the second half of the season and the Cougars get high marks for avoiding what many thought could be an upset special against VCU. This is a deep BYU rotation that’s built to sustain the rigors of a tournament run, with eight players averaging double-digit minutes per game and a handful of players who could lead the team in scoring on any given night. I like that versatility as a tough prep for Wisconsin, which has had some defensive issues against its toughest opponents.

This is a wildly low line for two teams that may not push the pace but do operate at a pretty efficient clip when it comes to the offensive end. Drake ranks No. 362 out of 364 Division I teams when it comes to getting out in transition but good offensive rebounding allows for even more chances to score in the half-court, and as a fairly sizable underdog the expectation is that Ben McCollum’s crew will be chasing the game a little bit and can’t afford to milk away the clock. Texas Tech, meanwhile, has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, spaces the floor well and can heat up from deep.