Florida
Gators
FLA
Last 5 ATS
W/L3-1
ATS3-2
O/U4-1-0
FINAL SCORE
17
-
45
Missouri
Tigers
MIZZOU
Last 5 ATS
W/L3-0
ATS2-2
O/U3-1-0
Last 5 ATS
3-1
Win /Loss
3-0
3-2
Spread
2-2
4-1-0
Over / Under
3-1-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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This is a classic letdown spot for the Gators, who are coming off a blowout win over Ole Miss last week. But behind Jadan Baugh, Florida has an efficient and explosive ground attack that works at home, on the road, against good teams and against bad teams. Given how much the Gators score (53.5 points per game), this is a small number against a Missouri team that I think is overrated.
Florida's offense continues to put up numbers with 44+ points in all four games this season and 50+ in three of four. They are 2nd in nation in score (53.8), 5th in yards (532.8) and have the leading RB in Jadan Baugh. We've also seen the defense give up 39 to Auburn and 28 to Ole Miss and 21 to FAU. Missouri is 126th nationally in explosiveness allowed, which means they won't be able to stop Florida. allowed 514 yards, including 360 in the air, and 6.44 yards per play to Mississippi State last week, all season highs.
Florida is keeping the scoreboard operator busy. The Gators' points output in four games: 66, 52, 44, 52. They have yet to fall behind in FBS games while attaining a No. 5 offense rating. Perhaps no performance was more impressive this season than the win by two-dozen points over Mississippi State. Missouri could use all the defensive help it can get, but edge rushers Darris Smith and Langden Kitchen have been scratched. They've combined for five tackles for losses.
Missouri's offense should be able to move the ball against Florida's defense, but can it play a perfect game? It may have to in order to keep up, because these Gators are putting up at least 45 on everybody so far.
Florida is coming off a huge win over Ole Miss, which makes this a classic letdown spot. Teams that pull off big upsets and are then favored on the road often slip up. Missouri’s defensive line is healthy up the middle, which matches up perfectly against Florida’s run game. The Tigers are giving up only 2.21 line yards per carry and 2.82 yards per carry on early downs. On the other side, Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons should have more time and space to work with against a Florida defense that could be worn down after last week. The market has Florida favored by 5.5 points, but my numbers say this is basically a toss-up (Florida -0.6). I’d grab the points with Missouri.
