Ole Miss
Rebels
MISS
Last 5 ATS
W/L3-1
ATS2-3
O/U3-2-0
FINAL SCORE
28
-
52
Florida
Gators
FLA
Last 5 ATS
W/L3-2
ATS3-3
O/U4-2-0
Last 5 ATS
3-1
Win /Loss
3-2
2-3
Spread
3-3
3-2-0
Over / Under
4-2-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
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I actually considered a first-half play here, which is really not something I do. Just not wired to care about who is leading at halftime. But look up "Letdown Game" on Wikipedia and this should be at the top of the list. How Ole Miss is not mega-flat off the Lane Kiffin Bowl would shock me. Could be that Trinidad Chambliss -- Ferris State! -- is good enough to mask all that. But star tailback Kewan Lacy being downgraded to doubtful was the clincher for me.
Last week was the big albatross on the Ole Miss schedule: The "Lane Kiffin Game". Now that is over and done with, this football team can now just play free, using last week's win as a jumping off point to get back to the CFP. Florida is a very good, physical football team and will test the Ole Miss run defense. I understand the point spread respect to the Gators side, but this Ole Miss team is a battle-tested one.
From what I've seen from these teams I have a lot more faith in both offenses than I do the defenses. Ole Miss' secondary has shown itself to be shaky, and Florida's defense hasn't been very impressive despite playing a pretty soft schedule overall.
Mississippi and Florida are both 3-0 on the season, and they meet Saturday in Gainesville, but I think the wrong team is favored. Florida is -3.5. The Gators return three starters on each side of the ball and come off a 4-8 season where they were 2-6 in the SEC, which includes losing 34-24 at Ole Miss. They won at Auburn and at home against punching bags Campbell and FAU. The problem I have with Florida being favored is that Ole Miss has already beaten ranked teams like LSU and Louisville. When I see Florida at home, I see 4 losses last year. It wasn't so formidable then, and I don't think Mississippi will be afraid of the swamp. Ole Miss +3.5.
Florida continues to ride its new explosive offense to high-scoring wins, scoring 44+ points and 495+ yards in all three wins this season. The Gators' 54.0 points per game is second in the nation behind rival Georgia, while its 544.3 yards per game is third. Most notably, RB Jadan Baugh is second in the nation in rushing at 152.7 yards per game and tied for the lead with 8 TDs. He goes up against an Ole Miss defense that has had problems stopping the run, allowing 159 rushing yards/game and 4.1 yards per carry. This is only the 5th time since 1978 that a top-5 team is an underdog to a team not ranked in the top twenty. The lower-ranked favorite is 4-0 ATS.
